鲍威尔Jackson Hole 讲话称风险转移或需调整利率

 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell carefully opened the door to an interest-rate cut in September, pointing to rising risks for the labor market even as worries over inflation remain.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 在 9 月份谨慎地开启了降息大门，他指出，尽管通胀担忧依然存在，但劳动力市场的风险仍在上升。

“The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance,” Powell said in remarks prepared for the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. “Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

鲍威尔周五在为怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔美联储年度会议准备的讲话稿中表示：“失业率和其他劳动力市场指标的稳定，使我们能够谨慎行事，考虑调整政策立场。尽管如此，由于政策处于限制性区域，基准前景和不断变化的风险平衡可能需要我们调整政策立场。”

Following Powell’s remarks investors boosted bets that the Federal Open Market Committee would cut rates at their Sept. 16-17 meeting.

鲍威尔发表讲话后，投资者加大了对联邦公开市场委员会将在 9 月 16 日至 17 日会议上降息的押注。

The cautious signal comes at a time when Fed officials are divided over how and when to adjust policy in the coming months. Some have pointed to the labor market’s resilience. Others warn that nascent signs of weakness in employment could metastasize into a more significant downturn.

这一谨慎信号发出之际，美联储官员对未来几个月如何以及何时调整政策意见不一。一些人指出了劳动力市场的韧性。另一些人则警告称，就业市场初现的疲软迹象可能会演变成更严重的经济衰退。

Powell said the labor market is in a “curious kind of balance” resulting from a marked slowdown in both the supply of and demand for workers. He cited employment data for July, which showed jobs growth in recent months was substantially weaker than previously reported.

鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场正处于一种“奇怪的平衡状态”，原因是劳动力的供给和需求都明显放缓。他引用了7月份的就业数据，数据显示，近几个月的就业增长远低于此前公布的数据。

“This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising,” he said. “If those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.”

“这种异常情况表明，就业市场的下行风险正在上升，”他表示。“如果这些风险成为现实，很快就会以裁员人数大幅增加和失业率上升的形式显现。”

But he continued to argue that policymakers must guard against the prospect that President Donald Trump’s tariffs lead to persistent inflation. He said the effects of tariffs on consumer prices are “now clearly visible,” but it’s reasonable to expect the effects will be relatively short lived.

但他继续指出，政策制定者必须警惕唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税可能导致持续通胀的前景。他表示，关税对消费者价格的影响“现在已清晰可见”，但可以合理地预期，这种影响将相对短暂。

“It is also possible, however, that the upward pressure on prices from tariffs could spur a more lasting inflation dynamic, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed,” Powell said.

鲍威尔表示：“不过，关税对价格造成的上行压力也有可能刺激更持久的通胀动力，这是一个需要评估和管理的风险。”

“When our goals are in tension like this, our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate,” he added.

他补充道：“当我们的目标处于这种紧张状态时，我们的框架要求我们平衡双重使命。”

Treasury yields tumbled, the S&P 500 extended gains and the dollar fell. Powell was greeted in the room with a standing ovation from the audience.

美国国债收益率暴跌，标准普尔500指数延续涨势，美元下跌。鲍威尔的演讲受到了全场观众的起立鼓掌。

Powell’s speech comes amid unprecedented pressure from Trump and his allies aimed at getting the central bank to lower borrowing costs, threatening the Fed’s independence in determining monetary policy.

鲍威尔发表讲话之际，特朗普及其盟友正向美联储施加前所未有的压力，要求其降低借贷成本，威胁到美联储在制定货币政策方面的独立性。