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  人们往往并不知道退休后需要多少钱，这个数字取决于一系列因素。不过，富达投资设计了一个简便方法，可以大致衡量下自己攒够了没有。 图片来源：OZZIE HOPPE FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Anne Tergesen 2024年4月26日 去年，股市的强劲表现让401(k)账户余额上涨了19%。通货膨胀也已经降温。尽管如此，许多人仍然觉得自己的积蓄距离可以舒适退休的神奇数字还很遥远。 金融服务公司西北互惠财富管理公司(Northwestern Mutual)4月初公布的一项对4,588名成年人的最新调查显示，需要有146万美元才能过上舒适的退休生活，这个数字高于一年前的127万美元，而且比受访者的平均积蓄多出了100万美元以上。 纽约市社会研究新学院(New School for Social Research)的经济学家特蕾莎·吉拉尔杜奇(Teresa Ghilarducci)表示，这个神奇数字的上升揭示的更多是退休焦虑，而不是退休计划。 吉拉尔杜奇说，人们并不真正知道他们退休后将会需要多少钱，往往高估了这个数字。 她说，虽然146万美元作为一些较高收入家庭的储蓄目标可能是合理的，但大多数较低收入家庭需要的退休积蓄可能要少得多。 “人们对退休的焦虑情绪极高，”她说。她还指出，对医疗保健和长期护理成本的担忧加剧了这种焦虑。 储蓄金与期望值脱节的部分原因在于从养老金向401(k)型退休计划的转变，这要求储蓄者自行作出投资和规划决策。 没有什么金融背景的退休人员必须搞清楚如何才能让他们的储蓄金支撑几十年的用度，贝莱德公司(BlackRock)的首席执行官拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)在3月底的年度股东信中将这项任务称为“不可能解开的数学题”，从而敲响了有关退休危机的警钟。 劳动者们很难想象他们的401(k)账户余额在他们退休后最终能买到些什么。《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)曾分别采访手握100万美元、200万美元和500万美元储蓄金的退休人员，展示了不同的生活方式和人们面临的挑战。富达投资(Fidelity Investment)的401(k)计划参与者当中大约有2%的人存款余额达到或者超过100万美元。 由于社会安全福利(Social Security)的未来充满不确定性，我们想要了解退休储蓄能用多久就变得更

经济学人： Beware: taking a stand can be expensive 当心：表明立场可能会付出高昂的代价 The hedge fund’s branding is a clue. 1789 Capital was set up last year and named for the year Congress proposed America’s bill of rights. It offers investors the chance to put money into what it says are three key themes: a parallel conservative economy catering to consumers who want to avoid being bombarded with liberal ideas; the shift away from free trade; and firms that have been penalised by the environment, social and governance (ESG) investment trend. Its founder, Omeed Malik, a former banker, has hosted fundraisers for Robert Kennedy junior, an anti-vaccination, long-shot presidential candidate. 对冲基金的品牌是一个线索。 1789 Capital 成立于去年，以国会提出美国权利法案的年份命名。它为投资者提供了将资金投入其所说的三个关键主题的机会：平行的保守经济，迎合那些希望避免受到自由主义思想轰炸的消费者；远离自由贸易；以及因环境、社会和治理（ESG）投资趋势而受到惩罚的公司。其创始人、前银行家奥米德·马利克 (Omeed Malik) 为反对疫苗接种、有望成为总统候选人的小罗伯特·肯尼迪 (Robert Kennedy Junior) 举办了筹款活动。 1789 Capital is part of an increasingly important trend: American politics is infecting i

经济学人： Hire a wealth manager, and one of their first tasks will be to work out your attitude to risk. If you are not sure exactly what this means, the questions are unlikely to help. They range from the inane (“How do you think a friend who knows you well would describe your attitude to taking financial risks?”) to the baffling (“Many television programmes now have a welter of fast whizzing images. Do you find these a) interesting; b) irritating; or c) amusing but they distract from the message of the programme?”). This is not necessarily a sign that your new adviser is destined to annoy you. Instead, it hints at something fundamental. Risk sits at the heart of financial markets. But trying to pin down precisely what it is, let alone how much of it you want and which investment choices should follow, can be maddening. 聘请财富经理，他们的首要任务之一就是了解您对风险的态度。如果您不确定这到底意味着什么，那么这些问题不太可能有帮助。它们的范围从空洞的（“你认为一个很了解你的朋友会如何描述你对承担金融风险的态度？”）到令人困惑的（“现在许多电视节目都有一堆快速的快速图像。你觉得这些是） 有趣的; b) 刺激性的；或者 c) 有趣，但它们分散了节目信息的注意力

 经济学人： E verywhere you  look, stockmarkets are breaking records. American equities, as measured by the  S & P  500 index, hit their first all-time high in more than two years in January, surged above 5,000 points in February and roared well above that level on February 22nd when Nvidia, a maker of hardware essential for artificial intelligence ( AI ), released spectacular results. The same day, Europe’s  STOXX  600 set its own record. Even before Nvidia’s results had been announced, Japan’s Nikkei 225 had surpassed its previous best, set in 1989. Little surprise, then, that a widely watched global stockmarket index recently hit an all-time high, too (see chart 1). 放眼望去，股市都在打破纪录。以标准普尔 500 指数衡量的美国股市 1 月份创下两年多来的首次历史新高，2 月份飙升至 5,000 点以上，2 月 22 日，当人工智能（ai），发布惊人成果。同一天，欧洲斯托克斯 600 指数创下了自己的纪录。甚至在 Nvidia 的业绩公布之前，日本日经 225 指数就已经超越了 1989 年创下的历史最高纪录。因此，备受关注的全球股市指数最近也创下历史新高也就不足为奇了（见图 1）。 image: The Economist   图片来源：《经济学家》 This is quite a turnaround. Stocks slumped in 2022, when faced with fast-ri

经济学人： Less than two months of 2024 have passed, but the year has already been a pleasing one for stockmarket investors. The s&p 500 index of big American companies is up by 6%, and has passed 5,000 for the first time ever, driven by a surge in enthusiasm for tech giants, such as Meta and Nvidia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is tantalisingly close to passing its own record, set in 1989. The roaring start to the year has revived an old debate: should investors go all in on equities? 2024年虽然过去了不到两个月，但对于股市投资者来说，这一年已经是令人欣喜的一年。在人们对 Meta 和 Nvidia 等科技巨头的热情高涨的推动下，美国大公司的标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 6%，首次突破 5,000 点。日本日经 225 指数非常接近于超越其 1989 年创下的纪录。今年开局的强劲表现再次引发了一场古老的争论：投资者是否应该全力投资股票？ A few bits of research are being discussed in financial circles. One was published in October by Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg and Michael O’Doherty, a trio of academics. They make the case for a portfolio of 100% equities, an approach that flies in the face of longstanding mainstream advice, which suggests a mixture of stocks and b

经济学人： M eta celebrated   its 20th anniversary this week as all good and mature businesses should: by paying shareholders a dividend. In lieu of a birthday bash, the Silicon Valley stalwart marked its coming of age with a stock buy-back and, for the first time, by offering a dividend. Investors will receive 50 cents per share. Markets partied, with Meta’s share price rising by 20%, adding more than $200bn to the company’s market capitalisation on the day of the announcement. Meta 本周庆祝了成立 20 周年，就像所有优秀和成熟的企业都应该做的那样：通过向股东支付股息。这家硅谷的中坚力量没有举行生日庆祝活动，而是通过股票回购和首次派发股息来标志着自己的成熟。投资者每股将获得 50 美分。消息公布当天，市场一片欢腾，Meta 股价上涨 20%，公司市值增加超过 2000 亿美元。 The dividend, a 17th-century innovation, was a mainstay of markets for much of the 20th century. Stockpickers used the cash they earned from dividends to price shares. The Bloomberg terminal of its time, Moody’s Analyses of Investments, evaluated the giants of American rail on dividends per mile of railroad laid. But the years have not been kind to the once-domin