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巴菲特致股东的最后一封信(感恩节言)

**伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司**

**新闻稿**

**即时发布 - 2025年11月10日**

内布拉斯加州奥马哈市(股票代码:BRK.A; BRK.B)–

今日,沃伦·E·巴菲特将其持有的1,800股A类股转换为2,700,000股B类股,目的是将这些B类股捐赠给四个家族基金会:其中1,500,000股捐赠给苏珊·汤普森·巴菲特基金会,其余三个基金会——舍伍德基金会、霍华德·G·巴菲特基金会和NoVo基金会——各获得400,000股。这些捐赠已于今日完成。


巴菲特先生致其各位股东的评论如下:

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致我的各位股东:


我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不再在年度股东大会上无休止地讲话。用英国人的话说,我要"保持安静"了。


算是吧。


格雷格·阿贝尔将在年底成为公司的负责人。他是一位杰出的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,也是一位诚实的沟通者。祝愿他任期长久。


我将通过每年发布的感恩节致辞,继续与你们以及我的孩子们交流关于伯克希尔的事情。伯克希尔的个人股东是一个非常特殊的群体,他们异常慷慨地愿意与那些不那么幸运的人分享他们的收益。我很珍惜能与你们保持联系的机会。今年请容许我先回忆一些往事。之后,我将讨论我持有的伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些商业和个人方面的观察与思考。


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随着感恩节临近,我满怀感激且惊讶于自己在95岁高龄依然健在的运气。

在我年轻的时候,这个结果看起来可不像是个好赌注。早年,我曾险些丧命。


那是在1938年,当时的奥马哈市民将医院视为要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时似乎很自然。


我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是一位友善的天主教徒,他常常拎着一个黑色医疗包出诊。霍茨医生叫我"小船长",而且看诊收费从不昂贵。1938年,当我经历严重的腹痛时,霍茨医生来了,在稍作检查后,告诉我早上就会好的。然后他就回家吃晚饭,打了一会儿桥牌。然而,他无法将我那些有点特别的症状从脑海中驱散,于是在那天深夜,他安排我去了圣凯瑟琳医院进行紧急阑尾切除手术。在接下来的三周里,我感觉自己仿佛置身于一座女修道院,并开始享受我的新"讲台"。我喜欢说话——是的,即使在那时——修女们也很接纳我。


最棒的是,我的三年级老师马德森小姐让我班上的30名同学每人给我写一封信。我可能把男孩们的信都扔掉了,但女孩们的信却读了一遍又一遍;住院也有它的好处。


我康复过程中最精彩的部分——实际上在第一周的大部分时间里情况都很危险——是我亲爱的伊迪阿姨送的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我立刻为我所有照顾我的修女采集了指纹。(我可能是他们在圣凯瑟琳医院见到的第一个新教男孩,她们不知道会发生什么。)


我的理论——当然是完全荒谬的——是总有一天会有一个修女变坏,而联邦调查局(FBI)会发现他们忽略了给修女们采集指纹。FBI及其局长J·埃德加·胡佛在1930年代深受美国人敬仰,我幻想着胡佛先生本人会来到奥马哈,检查我这份无比珍贵的收藏。我进一步幻想,我和J·埃德加会迅速识别并逮捕那个任性的修女。全国性的名声似乎唾手可得。


显然,我的幻想从未实现。但具有讽刺意味的是,几年后情况变得很清楚,我本应该给J·埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。


嗯,那就是1930年代的奥马哈,一个雪橇、一辆自行车、一个棒球手套和一列电动火车让我和我的朋友们梦寐以求的时代。让我们看看那个时代另外几个在附近长大、极大地影响了我的人生,但我却长久以来未曾意识到的孩子。


我从查理·芒格开始,他是我64年来最好的朋友。在1930年代,查理住的地方离我自1958年起拥有并居住的房子只隔一个街区。


早年,我差一点就结识了查理。查理比我大6又2/3岁,在1940年夏天,他在我祖父的杂货店工作,每天工作10小时,挣2美元。(节俭深深流淌在巴菲特家族的血液中。)第二年,我也在店里做了类似的工作,但我直到1959年才遇见查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。


在二战服役后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久搬到了加利福尼亚。然而,查理总是谈论他在奥马哈的早年时光是塑造性格的关键时期。60多年来,查理对我产生了巨大的影响,他是一位再好不过的老师和保护我的"大哥"。我们有过分歧,但从未争吵过。"我早就告诉过你"这句话不在他的词汇表里。


1958年,我购买了我第一处也是唯一一处住宅。当然,它在奥马哈,离我长大的地方(粗略定义)大约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店大约六个街区,离我工作了64年的办公楼有6-7分钟车程。


让我们谈谈另一位奥马哈人,斯坦·利普西。斯坦在1968年将他经营的《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的要求搬到了布法罗。当时,伯克希尔的一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与其早间竞争对手进行一场生死之战,后者出版布法罗唯一的周日报纸。而我们正在输掉这场竞争。


斯坦最终为我们打造了新的周日版产品,有几年,我们的报纸——以前严重亏损——在我们3300万美元的投资上,每年获得了超过100%(税前)的回报。这在1980年代初对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。


斯坦在离我家大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。你们会记得,沃尔特在1999年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他直到2021年去世前,一直是一位宝贵的伯克希尔董事,也是一位非常亲密的朋友。沃尔特是内布拉斯加州几十年来慈善事业的领导者,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他的印记。


沃尔特就读于本森高中,我原本也计划去那里上学——直到1942年我父亲在国会竞选中击败了一位连任四届的在职议员,让所有人都大吃一惊。生活充满了意外。


等等,还有更多。


1959年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家人住在与我家直接隔街相望的一所房子里,距离芒格家曾经住的地方大约100码。唐当时是一名咖啡推销员,但命中注定将成为可口可乐公司的总裁,并且成为伯克希尔忠诚的董事。


当我遇到唐时,他年收入12,000美元,而他和他的妻子米琪正在抚养五个孩子,所有这些孩子都注定要上天主教学校(需要支付学费)。


我们两家很快成了亲密的朋友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈的克瑞顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米琪。加入可口可乐公司后,唐后来在全球范围内成为了传奇人物。


1985年,当唐担任可口可乐公司总裁时,公司推出了命运多舛的"新可乐"。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉并恢复了"经典"可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给"头号白痴"的可口可乐公司来信被迅速送到他的办公桌之后。他的"撤回"演讲堪称经典,可以在YouTube上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上,可口可乐产品属于公众,而不是公司。随后销量猛增。


你可以在CharlieRose.com上观看唐的一次精彩采访。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几个很棒的采访。)像查理·芒格一样,唐永远是一个中西部男孩,热情、友好,骨子里是美国人。


最后,在印度出生和长大的阿吉特·贾因,以及我们即将上任的加拿大籍CEO格雷格·阿贝尔,各自在20世纪末在奥马哈居住了几年。事实上,在1990年代,格雷格住在法纳姆大街,离我只有几个街区远,尽管我们当时从未见过面。


难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?


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我在华盛顿特区度过了一些青少年时光(当时我父亲在国会),1954年,我在曼哈顿找到了一份我当时以为会是永久的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼待我非常好,我也结交了许多终身朋友。纽约拥有独特的资产——现在依然如此。然而,在1956年,仅仅一年半之后,我回到了奥马哈,再也没有离开过。


后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直上公立学校(毕业于同一所高中,那所高中也曾培养了我的父亲(1921届)、我的第一任妻子苏茜(1950届),还有查理、斯坦·利普西、欧文和罗恩·布鲁姆金(他们对内布拉斯加家具城的成长至关重要),以及杰克·林瓦尔特(1923届,他创立了国民赔偿公司并于1967年将其卖给伯克希尔,这成为我们庞大的财产/意外险业务的基础)。


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我们国家有许多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗设施,每个地方肯定都有其特殊的优势和人才。但我感到非常幸运,有幸结交了许多终身朋友,遇到了我的两任妻子,在公立学校接受了良好的启蒙教育,在我很小的时候遇到了许多有趣且友善的成年奥马哈人,并在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结交了各种各样的朋友。简而言之,内布拉斯加就是家。


回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我本人都因为扎根于奥马哈而比我住在任何其他地方都做得更好。美国中部是一个非常适宜出生、养家和发展事业的地方。由于纯粹的运气,我在出生时抽到了一根长得离谱的好签。


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现在让我们谈谈我的高龄。我的基因并没有特别大的帮助——家族有史以来(诚然,年代越久远记录越模糊)的长寿纪录是92岁,直到我的出现。但我有 wise、友好且 dedicated 的奥马哈医生们,从哈雷·霍茨开始,一直持续到今天。至少有三次,我的生命得以挽救,每次都是由距离我家几英里内的医生完成的。(不过,我已经放弃给护士采集指纹了。在95岁高龄,你可以有很多怪癖……但总有限度。)


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那些活到老年的人需要大量的好运,每天都要避开香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击,你能想到的一切。


但幸运女神是变幻无常的,而且——没有别的词更合适——极度不公平。在许多情况下,我们的领导人和富人获得的运气远远超过了他们应得的份额——而受益者往往不愿承认这一点。世袭继承者在离开母体的那一刻就实现了终身的财务独立,而另一些人则在他们早年生活中面临困境,或者更糟的是,身患使他们丧失我所认为理所当然的能力的身体或精神疾病。在世界上许多人口稠密的地区,我很可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们处境会更糟。


我出生于1930年,健康、智力尚可、白人、男性,并且在美国。哇!谢谢你,幸运女神。我的姐妹们拥有同等的智力,个性也比我好,但却面临着截然不同的前景。在我生命的大部分时间里,幸运女神持续眷顾,但她有比与90多岁老人打交道更重要的事情要做。运气有其限度。


相反,时间老人发现随着我年事渐高,我变得更有趣了。而且他是不可战胜的;对他来说,每个人最终都会出现在他的记分牌上,记为"胜利"。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时间老人就在附近。


我变老得比较晚——每个人的衰老起始时间差异很大——但一旦出现,就无法否认。


令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。虽然我行动缓慢,阅读越来越困难,但我每周五天都在办公室,与优秀的人们一起工作。偶尔,我会想到一个有用的主意,或者收到一个我们原本可能收不到的报价。由于伯克希尔的规模和市场水平,好主意很少——但并非没有。


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然而,我意想不到的长寿对我的家庭和实现我的慈善目标产生了不可避免的重大影响。


让我们探讨一下。


**接下来是什么**


我的孩子们都已超过了正常的退休年龄,分别达到了72岁、70岁和67岁。押注他们三个——现在在许多方面都处于巅峰状态——都会享有我这种延迟衰老的特殊运气,将是一个错误。为了提高他们在继任受托人接替之前能够处置基本上是我的全部遗产的概率,我需要加快向他们三个基金会进行生前捐赠的步伐。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面正值黄金时期,但尚未进入老年。这个"蜜月"期不会永远持续。


幸运的是,调整路线很容易执行。然而,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望保留相当数量的"A"类股份,直到伯克希尔的股东们对格雷格建立起像查理和我长期以来所享有的那种信任。这种信任水平不应该需要太长时间。我的孩子们以及伯克希尔的董事们都已经百分百支持格雷格。


所有三个孩子现在都具备了成熟、头脑、精力和本能来管理分配一大笔财富。他们还有一个优势,就是在我离世很久之后他们依然在世,并且如果需要,可以采取预见性和反应性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的事态发展。他们很可能需要适应周围显著变化的世界。来自坟墓的指令记录不佳,我从未有过这样做的冲动。


幸运的是,所有三个孩子都从他们母亲那里继承了主导性的基因。随着几十年的过去,我也成为了他们思维和行为更好的榜样。然而,我永远无法达到他们母亲的水平。


我的孩子们有三名候补受托人,以防任何过早死亡或丧失行为能力的情况。候补受托人没有排名,也不与特定的孩子绑定。这三个人都是杰出的人,并且深谙世故。他们没有动机冲突。


我向我的孩子们保证,他们不需要创造奇迹,也不必害怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也犯过不少错误。他们只需要比政府活动和/或私人慈善机构通常达到的效果稍好一些,同时认识到这些其他财富再分配方式也有其缺点。


早些时候,我曾考虑过各种宏大的慈善计划。尽管我很固执,但这些计划被证明不可行。在我多年的生涯中,我也目睹了政治投机分子、世袭选择,以及是的,无能或古怪的慈善家们所进行的考虑不周的财富转移。


如果我的孩子们只是做得体面,他们可以确信,他们的母亲和我会感到欣慰。他们的本能很好,他们每个人都经过了多年的实践,最初是非常小的金额,后来不定期地增加到每年超过5亿美元。


所有三人都喜欢长时间工作,以各自的方式帮助他人。


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我加快向孩子们基金会的生前捐赠,绝不反映我对伯克希尔前景的看法有任何改变。格雷格·阿贝尔已经完全超出了我最初认为他应该成为伯克希尔下一任CEO时对他的高期望。他对我们许多业务和人员的理解远胜于我,而且他在许多CEO甚至不考虑的事情上学习速度非常快。我找不到任何一个CEO、管理顾问、学者、政府成员——随便你说——能让我选择代替格雷格来管理你和我的储蓄。


例如,格雷格对我们财产/意外险业务的潜在优势和风险的理解,比许多长期的财产/意外险高管都要深刻。我希望他的健康能维持几十年。只要有一点运气,伯克希尔在下个世纪应该只需要五到六位CEO。它尤其应该避免那些目标是65岁退休、追求引人注目的财富或开创王朝的人。


一个不愉快的现实:偶尔,母公司或子公司的一位出色且忠诚的CEO会患上痴呆症、阿尔茨海默病或其他使人衰弱且长期的疾病。查理和我遇到过几次这个问题,但未能采取行动。这种失误可能是一个巨大的错误。董事会必须对CEO层面的这种可能性保持警惕,CEO也必须对子公司层面的可能性保持警惕。这说起来容易做起来难;我可以举出过去一些大公司的例子。董事们应该保持警惕并直言不讳,这是我唯一能给出的建议。


在我有生之年,改革者试图通过要求披露老板的薪酬与普通员工的平均薪酬之比来让CEO们难堪。委托书说明书迅速膨胀到100多页,而早些时候只有20页或更少。


但良好的意图并未奏效;反而适得其反。根据我的大多数观察——"A"公司的CEO看着他在"B"公司的竞争对手,并微妙地向他的董事会传达他应该值得更多。当然,他也提高了董事的薪酬,并且谨慎地选择薪酬委员会的人选。新规则产生了嫉妒,而不是节制。


这种攀比行为自行发展,愈演愈烈。通常困扰非常富有的CEO们的是——他们毕竟也是人——其他CEO变得更富有了。嫉妒和贪婪携手同行。又有哪个顾问曾建议过大幅削减CEO的薪酬或董事的报酬呢?


* * * * * * * * * * * *

总体而言,伯克希尔的业务前景略优于平均水平,由少数几个不相关且规模可观的瑰宝业务引领。然而,一二十年后,将会有许多公司比伯克希尔做得更好;我们的规模带来了负担。


伯克希尔发生毁灭性灾难的可能性比我已知的任何企业都要小。而且,伯克希尔拥有比我熟悉的几乎任何公司(而我见过很多)都更具股东意识的管理层和董事会。最后,伯克希尔将始终以使其存在成为美国一项资产的方式管理,并避免可能导致其成为乞求者的活动。随着时间的推移,我们的经理们应该会变得相当富有——他们肩负着重要的责任——但他们没有追求世袭或引人注目财富的欲望。


我们的股价会反复无常地波动,偶尔会下跌50%左右,就像在当前管理层下的60年里发生过三次那样。不要绝望;美国会复苏,伯克希尔的股票也会。


**最后几点想法**


也许有一点自我服务的观察。我很高兴地说,我对后半生的感觉比前半生更好。我的建议是:不要为过去的错误过分自责——至少从中吸取一点教训,然后继续前进。改进永远不晚。找到正确的英雄并效仿他们。你可以从汤姆·墨菲开始;他是最棒的。


记住阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔,后来以诺贝尔奖闻名,据说——他读到了自己的讣告,那是在他兄弟去世时报纸搞错了误印的。他对他所读到的内容感到震惊,并意识到他应该改变自己的行为。


不要指望新闻编辑室的混乱:决定你希望你的讣告说些什么,然后过一种值得这样评价的生活。


伟大不是通过积累巨额金钱、大量公众关注或政府中的巨大权力来实现的。当你以成千上万种方式中的任何一种帮助某人时,你就是在帮助世界。善良无需成本,但也无价。无论你是否信仰宗教,作为行为指南,"黄金法则"都很难被超越。


我写这些,是作为一个曾无数次考虑不周、犯过许多错误,但也非常幸运地从一些优秀的朋友那里学会了如何更好地行事(然而,离完美还有很长的路)的人。请记住,清洁工和董事长一样都是人。


* * * * * * * * * * * *

我祝愿所有读到这篇文章的人感恩节非常快乐。是的,即使是那些混蛋;改变永远不晚。记得感谢美国最大限度地提供了你的机会。但它在分配其奖赏时——不可避免地——反复无常,有时甚至腐败。


非常仔细地选择你的英雄,然后效仿他们。你永远不会完美,但你总能变得更好。


**关于伯克希尔**


伯克希尔·哈撒韦及其子公司从事多样化的业务活动,包括保险和再保险、公用事业和能源、货运铁路运输、制造、服务和零售。公司普通股在纽约证券交易所上市,交易代码为BRK.A和BRK.B。


– 结束 –


**联系方式**

马克·D·汉堡

402-346-1400



BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

NEWS RELEASE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 10, 2025

Omaha, NE (BRK.A; BRK.B) –

Today, Warren E. Buffett converted 1,800 A shares into 2,700,000 B shares in order to give these B

shares to four family foundations: 1,500,000 shares to The Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation and

400,000 shares to each of The Sherwood Foundation, The Howard G. Buffett Foundation and NoVo

Foundation. These donations have been delivered today.

Mr. Buffett’s comments to his fellow shareholders follow:

* * * * * * * * * * * *

To My Fellow Shareholders:

I will no longer be writing Berkshire’s annual report or talking endlessly at the annual

meeting. As the British would say, I’m “going quiet.”

Sort of.

Greg Abel will become the boss at yearend. He is a great manager, a tireless worker and an

honest communicator. Wish him an extended tenure.

I will continue talking to you and my children about Berkshire via my annual Thanksgiving

message. Berkshire’s individual shareholders are a very special group who are unusually generous in

sharing their gains with others less fortunate. I enjoy the chance to keep in touch with you. Indulge

me this year as I first reminisce a bit. After that, I will discuss the plans for distribution of my

Berkshire shares. Finally, I will offer a few business and personal observations.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

As Thanksgiving approaches, I’m grateful and surprised by my luck in being alive at 95.

When I was young, this outcome did not look like a good bet. Early on, I nearly died.

It was 1938 and Omaha hospitals were then thought of by its citizens as either Catholic or

Protestant, a classification that seemed natural at the time.

Our family doctor, Harley Hotz, was a friendly Catholic who made house calls toting a black

bag. Dr. Hotz called me Skipper and never charged much for his visits. When I experienced a bad

bellyache in 1938, Dr. Hotz came by and, after probing a bit, told me I would be OK in the morning.

He then went home, had dinner and played a little bridge. Dr. Hotz couldn’t, however, get my

somewhat peculiar symptoms out of his mind and later that night he dispatched me to St. Catherine’s

Hospital for an emergency appendectomy. During the next three weeks, I felt like I was in a nunnery,

and began enjoying my new “podium.” I liked to talk – yes, even then – and the nuns embraced me.

To top things off, Miss Madsen, my third-grade teacher, told my 30 classmates to each write

me a letter. I probably threw away the letters from the boys but read and reread those from the girls;

hospitalization had its rewards.

The highlight of my recovery – which actually was dicey for much of the first week – was a

gift from my wonderful Aunt Edie. She brought me a very professional-looking fingerprinting set,

and I promptly fingerprinted all of my attending nuns. (I was probably the first Protestant kid they

had seen at St. Catherine’s and they didn’t know what to expect.)

My theory – totally nutty, of course – was that someday a nun would go bad and the FBI

would find that they had neglected to fingerprint nuns. The FBI and its director, J. Edgar Hoover, had

become revered by Americans in the 1930s, and I envisioned Mr. Hoover, himself, coming to Omaha

to inspect my invaluable collection. I further fantasized that J. Edgar and I would quickly identify

and apprehend the wayward nun. National fame seemed certain.

Obviously, my fantasy never materialized. But, ironically, some years later it became clear

that I should have fingerprinted J. Edgar himself as he became disgraced for misusing his post.

Well, that was Omaha in the 1930s, when a sled, a bicycle, a baseball glove and an electric

train were coveted by me and my friends. Let’s look at a few other kids from that era, who grew up

very nearby and greatly influenced my life but of whom I was for long unaware.

I’ll begin with Charlie Munger, my best pal for 64 years. In the 1930s, Charlie lived a block

away from the house I have owned and occupied since 1958.

Early on, I missed befriending Charlie by a whisker. Charlie, 6 ⅔ years older than I, worked

in the summer of 1940 at my grandfather’s grocery store, earning $2 for a 10-hour day. (Thrift runs

deep in Buffett blood.) The following year I did similar work at the store, but I never met Charlie

until 1959 when he was 35 and I was 28.

After serving in World War II, Charlie graduated from Harvard Law and then moved

permanently to California. Charlie, however, forever talked of his early years in Omaha as formative.

For more than 60 years, Charlie had a huge impact on me and could not have been a better teacher

and protective “big brother.” We had differences but never had an argument. “I told you so” was not

in his vocabulary.

In 1958, I bought my first and only home. Of course, it was in Omaha, located about two

miles from where I grew up (loosely defined), less than two blocks from my in-laws, about six blocks

from the Buffett grocery store and a 6-7-minute drive from the office building where I have worked

for 64 years.

Let’s move on to another Omahan, Stan Lipsey. Stan sold the Omaha Sun Newspapers

(weeklies) to Berkshire in 1968 and a decade later moved to Buffalo at my request. The Buffalo

Evening News, owned by a Berkshire affiliate, was then locked in a battle to the death with its

morning competitor who published Buffalo’s only Sunday paper. And we were losing.

Stan eventually built our new Sunday product, and for some years our paper – formerly

hemorrhaging cash – earned over 100% annually (pre-tax) on our $33 million investment. This was

important money to Berkshire in the early 1980s.

Stan grew up about five blocks from my home. One of Stan’s neighbors was Walter Scott, Jr.

Walter, you will remember, brought MidAmerican Energy to Berkshire in 1999. He was also a valued

Berkshire director until his death in 2021 and a very close friend. Walter was Nebraska’s

philanthropic leader for decades and both Omaha and the state carries his imprint.

Walter attended Benson High School, which I was scheduled to attend as well – until my dad

surprised everyone in 1942 by beating a four-term incumbent in a Congressional race. Life is full of

surprises.

Wait, there’s more.

In 1959, Don Keough and his young family lived in a home located directly across the street

from my house and about 100 yards away from where the Munger family had lived. Don was then a

coffee salesman but was destined to become president of Coca-Cola as well as a devoted director of

Berkshire.

When I met Don, he was earning $12,000 a year while he and his wife Mickie were raising

five children, all destined for Catholic schools (with tuition requirements).

Our families became fast friends. Don came from a farm in northwest Iowa and graduated

from Omaha’s Creighton University. Early on, he married Mickie, an Omaha girl. After joining Coke,

Don went on to become legendary around the globe.

In 1985, when Don was president of Coke, the company launched its ill-fated New Coke.

Don made a famous speech in which he apologized to the public and reinstated “Old” Coke. This

change of heart took place after Don explained that Coke incoming mail addressed to “Supreme

Idiot” was promptly delivered to his desk. His “withdrawal” speech is a classic and can be viewed on

YouTube. He cheerfully acknowledged that, in truth, the Coca-Cola product belonged to the public

and not to the company. Sales subsequently soared.

You can watch Don on CharlieRose.com in a wonderful interview. (Tom Murphy and Kay

Graham have a couple of gems as well.) Like Charlie Munger, Don forever remained a Midwestern

boy, enthusiastic, friendly and American to the core.

Finally, Ajit Jain, born and raised in India, as well as Greg Abel, our Canadian CEO-to-be,

each lived in Omaha for several years late in the 20th Century. Indeed, in the 1990s, Greg lived only a

few blocks away from me on Farnam Street, though we never met at the time.

Can it be that there is some magic ingredient in Omaha’s water?

* * * * * * * * * * * *

I lived a few teenage years in Washington, DC (when my dad was in Congress) and in 1954 I

took what I thought would be a permanent job in Manhattan. There I was treated wonderfully by Ben

Graham and Jerry Newman and made many life-long friends. New York had unique assets – and still

does. Nevertheless, in 1956, after only 1½ years, I returned to Omaha, never to wander again.

Subsequently, my three children, as well as several grandchildren, were raised in Omaha. My

children always attended public schools (graduating from the same high school that educated my dad

(class of 1921), my first wife, Susie (class of 1950) as well as Charlie, Stan Lipsey, Irv and Ron

Blumkin, who were key to growing Nebraska Furniture Mart, and Jack Ringwalt (class of 1923),

who founded National Indemnity and sold it to Berkshire in 1967 where it became the base upon

which our huge P/C operation was constructed.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Our country has many great companies, great schools, great medical facilities and each

definitely has its own special advantages along with talented people. But I feel very lucky to have

had the good fortune to make many lifelong friends, to meet both of my wives, to receive a great start

in education at public schools, to meet many interesting and friendly adult Omahans when I was very

young, and to make a wide variety of friends in the Nebraska National Guard. In short, Nebraska has

been home.

Looking back I feel that both Berkshire and I did better because of our base in Omaha than if

I had resided anywhere else. The center of the United States was a very good place to be born, to

raise a family, and to build a business. Through dumb luck, I drew a ridiculously long straw at birth.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Now let’s move on to my advanced age. My genes haven’t been particularly helpful – the

family’s all-time record for longevity (admittedly family records get fuzzy as you work backwards)

was 92 until I came along. But I have had wise, friendly and dedicated Omaha doctors, starting with

Harley Hotz, and continuing to this day. At least three times, my life has been saved, each with

doctors based within a few miles from my home. (I have given up fingerprinting nurses, however.

You can get away with many eccentricities at 95 . . . . . but there are limits.)

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Those who reach old age need a huge dose of good luck, daily escaping banana peels, natural

disasters, drunk or distracted drivers, lightning strikes, you name it.

But Lady Luck is fickle and – no other term fits – wildly unfair. In many cases, our leaders

and the rich have received far more than their share of luck – which, too often, the recipients prefer

not to acknowledge. Dynastic inheritors have achieved lifetime financial independence the moment

they emerged from the womb, while others have arrived, facing a hell-hole during their early life or,

worse, disabling physical or mental infirmities that rob them of what I have taken for granted. In

many heavily-populated parts of the world, I would likely have had a miserable life and my sisters

would have had one even worse.

I was born in 1930 healthy, reasonably intelligent, white, male and in America. Wow! Thank

you, Lady Luck. My sisters had equal intelligence and better personalities than I but faced a much

different outlook. Lady Luck continued to drop by during much of my life, but she has better things

to do than work with those in their 90s. Luck has its limits.

Father Time, to the contrary, now finds me more interesting as I age. And he is undefeated;

for him, everyone ends up on his score card as “wins.” When balance, sight, hearing and memory are

all on a persistently downward slope, you know Father Time is in the neighborhood.

I was late in becoming old – its onset materially varies – but once it appears, it is not to be

denied.

To my surprise, I generally feel good. Though I move slowly and read with increasing

difficulty, I am at the office five days a week where I work with wonderful people. Occasionally, I

get a useful idea or am approached with an offer we might not otherwise have received. Because of

Berkshire’s size and because of market levels, ideas are few – but not zero.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

My unexpected longevity, however, has unavoidable consequences of major importance to my

family and the achievement of my charitable objectives.

Let’s explore them.

What Comes Next

My children are all above normal retirement age, having reached 72, 70 and 67. It would be a

mistake to wager that all three – now at their peak in many respects – will enjoy my exceptional luck

in delayed aging. To improve the probability that they will dispose of what will essentially be my

entire estate before alternate trustees replace them, I need to step up the pace of lifetime gifts to their

three foundations. My children are now at their prime in respect to experience and wisdom but have

yet to enter old age. That “honeymoon” period will not last forever.

Fortunately, a course correction is easy to execute. There is, however, one additional factor to

consider: I would like to keep a significant amount of “A” shares until Berkshire shareholders

develop the comfort with Greg that Charlie and I long enjoyed. That level of confidence shouldn’t

take long. My children are already 100% behind Greg as are the Berkshire directors.

All three children now have the maturity, brains, energy and instincts to disburse a large

fortune. They will also have the advantage of being above ground when I am long gone and, if

necessary, can adopt policies both anticipatory and reactive to federal tax policies or other

developments affecting philanthropy. They may well need to adapt to a significantly changing world

around them. Ruling from the grave does not have a great record, and I have never had an urge to do

so.

Fortunately, all three children received a dominant dosage of their genes from their mother.

As the decades have passed, I have also become a better model for their thinking and behavior. I will

never, however, achieve parity with their mother.

My children have three alternate trustees in case of any premature deaths or disabilities. The

alternates are not ranked or tied to a specific child. All three are exceptional humans and wise in the

ways of the world. They have no conflicting motives.

I have assured my children that they do not need to perform miracles nor fear failures or

disappointments. These are inevitable, and I have made my share. They simply need to improve

somewhat upon what generally is achieved by government activities and/or private philanthropy,

recognizing these other methods of redistribution of wealth have shortcomings as well.

Early on, I contemplated various grand philanthropic plans. Though I was stubborn, these did

not prove feasible. During my many years, I’ve also watched ill-conceived wealth transfers by

political hacks, dynastic choices and, yes, inept or quirky philanthropists.

If my children simply do a decent job, they can be certain that their mother and I would be

pleased. Their instincts are good and they each have had years of practice with very small sums

initially that have been irregularly increased to more than $500 million annually.

All three like working long hours to help others, each in their own way.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

The acceleration of my lifetime gifts to my children’s foundations in no way reflects any

change in my views about Berkshire’s prospects. Greg Abel has more than met the high expectations

I had for him when I first thought he should be Berkshire’s next CEO. He understands many of our

businesses and personnel far better than I now do, and he is a very fast learner about matters many

CEOs don’t even consider. I can’t think of a CEO, a management consultant, an academic, a member

of government – you name it – that I would select over Greg to handle your savings and mine.

Greg understands, for example, far more about both the upside potential and the dangers of

our P/C insurance business than do a great many long-time P/C executives. My hope is that his health

remains good for several decades. With a little luck, Berkshire should require only five or six CEOs

over the next century. It should particularly avoid those whose goal is to retire at 65, to become lookat-

me rich or to initiate a dynasty.

One unpleasant reality: Occasionally, a wonderful and loyal CEO of the parent or a

subsidiary will succumb to dementia, Alzheimer’s or another debilitating and long-term disease.

Charlie and I encountered this problem several times and failed to act. This failure can be a

huge mistake. The Board must be alert to this possibility at the CEO level and the CEO must be alert

to the possibility at subsidiaries. This is easier said than done; I could cite a few examples from the

past at major companies. Directors should be alert and speak up is all that I can advise.

During my lifetime, reformers sought to embarrass CEOs by requiring the disclosure of the

compensation of the boss compared to what was being paid to the average employee. Proxy

statements promptly ballooned to 100-plus pages compared to 20 or less earlier.

But the good intentions didn’t work; instead they backfired. Based on the majority of my

observations – the CEO of company “A” looked at his competitor at company “B” and subtly

conveyed to his board that he should be worth more. Of course, he also boosted the pay of directors

and was careful who he placed on the compensation committee. The new rules produced envy, not

moderation.

The ratcheting took on a life of its own. What often bothers very wealthy CEOs – they are

human, after all – is that other CEOs are getting even richer. Envy and greed walk hand in hand. And

what consultant ever recommended a serious cut in CEO compensation or board payments?

* * * * * * * * * * * *

In aggregate, Berkshire’s businesses have moderately better-than-average prospects, led by a

few non-correlated and sizable gems. However, a decade or two from now, there will be many

companies that have done better than Berkshire; our size takes its toll.

Berkshire has less chance of a devastating disaster than any business I know. And, Berkshire

has a more shareholder-conscious management and board than almost any company with which I am

familiar (and I’ve seen a lot). Finally, Berkshire will always be managed in a manner that will make

its existence an asset to the United States and eschew activities that would lead it to become a

supplicant. Over time, our managers should grow quite wealthy – they have important

responsibilities – but do not have the desire for dynastic or look-at-me wealth.

Our stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three

times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will

Berkshire shares.

A Few Final Thoughts

One perhaps self-serving observation. I’m happy to say I feel better about the second half of

my life than the first. My advice: Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes – learn at least a little

from them and move on. It is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them. You can

start with Tom Murphy; he was the best.

Remember Alfred Nobel, later of Nobel Prize fame, who – reportedly – read his own obituary

that was mistakenly printed when his brother died and a newspaper got mixed up. He was horrified at

what he read and realized he should change his behavior.

Don’t count on a newsroom mix-up: Decide what you would like your obituary to say and

live the life to deserve it.

Greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts

of publicity or great power in government. When you help someone in any of thousands of ways, you

help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it’s hard to

beat The Golden Rule as a guide to behavior.

I write this as one who has been thoughtless countless times and made many mistakes but

also became very lucky in learning from some wonderful friends how to behave better (still a long

way from perfect, however). Keep in mind that the cleaning lady is as much a human being as the

Chairman.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

I wish all who read this a very happy Thanksgiving. Yes, even the jerks; it’s never too late to

change. Remember to thank America for maximizing your opportunities. But it is – inevitably –

capricious and sometimes venal in distributing its rewards.

Choose your heroes very carefully and then emulate them. You will never be perfect, but you

can always be better.

About Berkshire

Berkshire Hathaway and its subsidiaries engage in diverse business activities including insurance and

reinsurance, utilities and energy, freight rail transportation, manufacturing, services and retailing.

Common stock of the company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, trading symbols BRK.A

and BRK.B.

– End –

Contact

Marc D. Hamburg

402-346-1400

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中国的量化基金越来越受欢迎,优比昆腾(Ubiquant)在5月份不到两个小时内就为一只新基金募集了26亿元人民币。 量化投资机构的资产管理规模在不到一年的时间内增长了一倍多,达到2.6万亿元人民币以上,这得益于他们迅速采用人工智能并取得成功。 量化投资的成功导致投资产品数量激增,去年新增的量化产品数量翻了一番多,达到 6,296 件,占所有新对冲基金的 46%。 中国的量化基金 非常受欢迎,投资者的资金蜂拥而至。 据知情人士透露,领先的投资平台 之一优博通(Ubiquant) 在5月份仅用不到两小时就为其新基金募集了26亿元人民币(约合3.84亿美元)。一位产品分销商表示,投资者还在几秒钟内抢购了深圳诚奇资产管理有限公司的一款产品,金额超过1亿元人民币。 他们并非孤例。量化基金的管理资产规模在不到一年的时间里翻了一番多,超过2.6万亿元人民币。这股热潮的背后是他们迅速应用 人工智能所取得的成功 。尽管中国投资者历来更青睐明星基金经理而非计算机模型,但去年机器的收益率却比人类高出20多个百分点。这些基金不断推出新产品,而投资者们正纷纷放弃选股人,争相购买这些产品。 “量化分析师覆盖数千只股票的广度已经超越了传统多头基金经理的研究深度,”自2021年以来一直与量化分析师合作撰写白皮书的技术提供商BigQuant.cn的首席运营官陈旭表示,“量化分析师最终成为了主流,而且这一趋势不可逆转。” 这导致投资产品数量激增。据产业证券股份有限公司1月份发布的报告显示,去年新推出的量化产品数量翻了一番多,达到6296只,占所有新成立对冲基金的46%。在顶级基金经理注册的3000多种新产品中,超过80%是由量化基金经理推出的。 中信证券的数据显示,去年只做多股票的量化策略收益为 44.7%,比其非自主交易的竞争对手高出 20.3 个百分点。相比之下,过去五年他们的平均领先优势为 13 个百分点,而根据数据显示,这是该策略自 2021 年以来的最大优势。 量化交易员在中国规模达8万亿元人民币的对冲基金行业取得的成功,与两年前的情况截然相反。此前,该行业曾因一系列管理失误而遭受重创,引发了政府监管机构的强烈不满。这些基金被指责造成市场过度波动和崩盘。交易所严厉打击利用高频交易规避交易限额的行为,并加强了对杠杆产品的监管。 宁波凌骏投资管理合伙企业 的转型就是一个引人注目的例子 。2024...

2026年中央一号文件(全文)

                                                                         中共中央 国务院 关于锚定农业农村现代化 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见 (2026年1月3日) 农业农村现代化关系中国式现代化全局和成色。“十四五”时期,农业综合生产能力迈上新台阶,脱贫攻坚成果巩固拓展,农民生活水平显著提高,乡村全面振兴取得明显进展。“十五五”时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期,要加快补上农业农村领域突出短板,加快建设农业强国。2026年是“十五五”开局之年,做好“三农”工作至关重要。要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神,认真落实四中全会部署,全面贯彻习近平总书记关于“三农”工作的重要论述和重要指示精神,坚持把解决好“三农”问题作为全党工作重中之重,坚持和加强党对“三农”工作的全面领导,完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,坚持农业农村优先发展,坚持城乡融合发展,锚定农业农村现代化,以推进乡村全面振兴为总抓手,以学习运用“千万工程”经验为引领,以改革创新为根本动力,提高强农惠农富农政策效能,守牢国家粮食安全底线,持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,提升乡村产业发展水平、乡村建设水平、乡村治理水平,努力把农业建成现代化大产业、使农村基本具备现代生活条件、让农民生活更加富裕美好,为推进中国式现代化提供基础支撑。 一、提升农业综合生产能力和质量效益 (一)稳定发展粮油生产。粮食产量稳定在1.4万亿斤左右。坚持产量产能、生产生态、增产增收一起抓,加力实施新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动,促进良田良种良机良法集成增效,推进粮油作物大面积提单产。因地制宜优化农业生产结构和区域布局,推动粮食品种培优和品质提升,实施粮食流通提质增效项目,促进适销对路、优质优价。巩固提升大豆产能,做好产销衔接...

摩根士丹利警告,高盛上调中国股票目标

 BBG 由于宏观经济指标依然疲弱,中国股市由流动性推动的上涨引发了华尔街分析师对其可持续性的争论。 高盛集团 策略师周四 将沪深300 指数12个月目标点位从4,500点上调至4,900点,理由是估值指标支撑、高个位数的趋势级利润增长以及有利的市场定位。相比之下, 摩根士丹利 的策略师则更为谨慎,指出市场过热的迹象正在显现。 高盛策略师刘劲杰(Kinger Lau)   等在一份报告中写道:“尽管短期内存在获利回吐压力,但 上涨趋势仍具有支撑 。流动性因素和估值扩张,而非周期性宏观基本面,一直是包括中国在内的全球股市上涨的主要推动力。” 尽管经济低迷,中国股市却一路飙升。沪深300指数本月上涨约10%,跻身表现最佳的主要股指之列。8月份迄今为止,日均成交额达2.2万亿元人民币(3090亿美元), 有望 创下纪录。 各公司的观点分歧反映了投资者必须应对的不同风险状况,因为此次上涨似乎更多地受到 流动性 而非持久的经济实力的推动。 沪深 300 指数周四收于 4,463.78 点,比高盛的新目标低约 10%。 摩根士丹利分析师指出,虽然 经济过热迹象 尚未普遍,但企业基本面改善和政策支持力度加强需要尽快跟进。 摩根士丹利分析师劳拉·王(Laura Wang)在一份报告中写道:  “仍有额外的流动性可用于股票配置;然而,前提是企业盈利和自上而下的政府政策能够尽快落实。”  “正如之前A股短暂反弹的尝试所表明的那样,反弹可持续性的最大障碍仍然在于基本面和长期宏观增长前景。” 本月早些时候,汇丰控股有限公司分析师因国内流动性充裕而 上调了对中国在岸股市 指数 的目标价,预测上证综指 年底前将达到4,000点,而周四收盘价为3,843.6点。汇丰还预计,沪深300指数年底前将达到4,600点。 摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)的策略师们看到了亚洲投资者仓位拥挤的迹象,但他们表示,全球政策放松和中国当前的流动性激增正在形成强大的反作用力。他们预计,到2026年底,沪深300指数将上涨24%,MSCI中国指数将上涨35%。 摩根大通策略师拉吉夫·巴特拉 (Rajiv Batra)  、 米克索·达斯 (Mixo Das) 和 温迪·刘 (Wendy Liu) 等在周四发布的亚洲市场报告中写道:“股市牛市将...

WSJ:孙宇晨曾害怕在美被捕,如今将成特朗普晚餐会贵宾

 WSJ: 多年来,加密货币亿万富豪孙宇晨(Justin Sun)因担心被捕而不敢踏足美国。这位出生于中国的商界大亨正面临美国当局的审查,甚至错失了乘坐贝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)旗下Blue Origin火箭飞行的机会,尽管他为此支付了2,800万美元。 如今,孙宇晨不仅回到了美国。他还将作为贵宾与总统特朗普共进晚餐。 经过数周的行业猜测,孙宇晨周二在社交媒体上发帖证实,他是特朗普$TRUMP模因币的最大持有者。他持有的约2,300万美元该代币使他跻身于一个由25名投资者组成的专属圈子,这些投资者受邀参加周四与总统举行的私人贵宾招待会。批评人士称,在特朗普及其家族寻求开展一系列商业活动之际,此次活动是其利益冲突最明目张胆的体现之一。 在特朗普胜选之前,这位34岁的企业家一直是美国当局的调查对象,并且在美国加密货币行业的大部分领域都是不受欢迎的人物。他的公司波场(Tron)运营着同名的区块链网络,一直是加密货币犯罪团伙转移资金的热门渠道。 美国财政部的金融犯罪执法网络在2023年的一份非公开报告中写道,波场“在非法行为者中越来越受欢迎”。据追踪加密货币交易并与执法部门合作的研究机构TRM Labs称,截至去年,所有非法加密货币活动中有一半以上(约260亿美元)发生在该网络上。 孙宇晨面临美国证券交易委员会的指控,该委员会在2023年指控他欺诈性地操纵波场TRX代币的市场。该委员会于今年2月请求法院暂停其诉讼。 与此同时,据知情人士透露,美国司法部一直在调查孙宇晨涉嫌金融犯罪的行为。其中一些知情人士称,曼哈顿的美国联邦检察官办公室早在2021年就要求孙宇晨提供信息,并至少持续收集证据直至2023年底,这导致他因担心可能收到逮捕令而避免前往美国。这些知情人士表示,这意味着常驻香港的孙宇晨不得不缺席2021年Blue Origin首次载人航天飞行器的发射,他本已赢得了这次飞行的一个座位。当时,Blue Origin称孙宇晨因日程冲突退出。 目前尚不清楚美国司法部的调查是否仍在进行。 孙宇晨的代表未回复多次寻求置评的电话和电子邮件。美国证券交易委员会和曼哈顿的美国联邦检察官办公室的发言人不予置评。Blue Origin的代表未回应置评请求。 加密货币亿万富豪孙宇晨,去年12月摄于香港。 PHOTO: 图片来源:KEITH TSUJI FOR WSJ

彭博社:中国股市长期低迷是中国公众长期储蓄率过高,消费不振的重要原因

  中国消费者为何储蓄如此之多、支出如此之少,以及为什么中美领导人即使想改变这种行为也难以做到,其核心原因在于中国的股市。 即使近期出现反弹,中国股市指数也才刚刚恢复到十年前泡沫 破裂 后的水平。糟糕的股市回报非但没有刺激消费者消费,反而促使他们储蓄。十年前,投资1万美元于标准普尔500 指数 ,如今价值已增长两倍多,而同样的金额投资于中国沪深300 指数 ,价值仅增长约3000美元。 长期关注中国问题的人士认为,部分原因在于结构性因素。35年前,中国证监会成立,旨在引导国有企业将家庭储蓄用于道路、港口和工厂建设。然而,该交易所缺乏对投资者回报的强烈关注。这种偏差引发了一系列问题,从股票供应过剩到上市后操作的可疑,这些问题持续困扰着这个规模达11万亿美元的 市场 。 中国领导人面临着解决这一问题的压力。中国领导人 希望 国内支出能够实现5%的经济增长目标,尤其是在中美因巨大贸易失衡而爆发的关税战升温之际。与此同时,北京方面有理由继续优先发挥市场作为资本来源的作用:中国需要大量资金来培育支撑其科技雄心的企业——即使这些企业的盈利能力仍值得怀疑。 “尽管新任证券主管做出了一些改进,但长期以来,中国资本市场一直是融资者的天堂,投资者的地狱,”在中国政法大学任教的证券界资深人士 刘纪鹏 在接受采访时表示。“监管机构和交易所总是有意无意地向融资端倾斜。” 中国股市未能兑现承诺 资料来源:彭博社(显示自 2015 年 8 月以来的涨幅) 今年,中国股市涨势的局限性再次显现。尽管人工智能领域乐观情绪高涨,但沪深300指数的涨幅却不足7%,落后于美国和欧洲的基准指数。这种表现不佳——以及包括经济前景不确定性在内的因素——有助于解释中国储蓄率异常高企的原因,目前储蓄率已达到可支配收入的35%。 从事资产管理行业的陈龙在社交媒体平台小红书上警告人们追逐近期上涨的风险。 陈在接受采访时表示:“很多普通人进来都以为能赚钱,但最终大多数人变得更穷了。”他还表示,自己从2014年就开始投资了。“国有企业主要对政府负责,而不是对股东负责,而很多私营企业家很少把小投资者放在心上。” 过去一年,中国高层领导更加意识到股市作为财富创造工具的重要性。尤其是在房地产市场持续低迷、社会保障体系碎片化加剧民众不安全感的情况下,这一点尤为突出。 中共中央政治局在12月的一次会议上承诺“稳定房地产市场和股...

对中国股市而言,刺激措施比美国大选更重要

BMG: 多年来已习惯中美 贸易争端 的投资者似乎愿意冒着美国总统大选后关税进一步上调的风险,并青睐中国资产,押注美国将出台更多刺激措施。 无论是唐纳德·特朗普还是卡玛拉·哈里斯成为美国新领导人,全球基金经理都预计对中国的敌意将升级。但他们并没有因为这种前景而完全回避中国资产,而是相信北京的政策将继续支持股票,尤其是 在内地上市的 股票。 央行鸽派立场也被 主流观点认为,特朗普再次连任对中国整体而言比哈里斯获胜更为不利。 特朗普主张对所有中国进口产品征收 60% 的 关税。不过,人们不太担心市场会像 2016 年共和党获胜时那样受到冲击。贸易战 已不再 是新鲜事,随着地缘政治紧张局势在现任政府领导下不断升温,投资者一直在稳步撤离中国。 投资者也清楚地知道,在特朗普任期内,MSCI 中国 指数 几乎翻了一番,但在拜登 总统任期内迄今为止下跌了 40% 以上 ,凸显了包括中国监管打击在内的多种因素如何影响了市场表现。 “在我看来,政策刺激对中国经济和股市来说比美国大选更重要,”苏黎世 Gam Investment Management 投资组合经理 Jian Shi Cortesi表示 。“如果特朗普获胜,中国政府准备了更多政策措施来应对可能采取的贸易措施。” 大选开始不到两周,特朗普和哈里斯之间的竞争就不相上下,这让基金很难根据大选结果进行布局,这也解释了它们为何更加关注中国的政策信号。 购买机会 自 9 月份推出刺激措施以来,中国股市出现了大幅复苏,沪深 300 指数 自上月低点以来上涨了 20% 以上。Jefferies和 M&G Investments 等 投行认为,选举引发的抛售将是买入中国股票的 好机会 。 财政部副部长廖岷周五接受彭博社 采访 时表示,刺激计划的核心是提高内需,实现国家年度增长目标。他指出,消费已成为中国财政政策制定的重要考虑因素,并提出了一项 资助 消费品以旧换新的计划。 M&G 股票、多种资产和可持续性全球首席投资官Fabiana Fedeli 表示:“如果特朗普当选,市场将会出现波动,尤其是中国股市,”但即将出台的政策支持可以抵消部分负面影响 。“如果我们看到一些大幅下跌,我们可能会利用它作为买入的机会。” 许多投资者表示,与在香港或美国交易的股票相比,在内地上市的股票将更好地抵御选举波动,因为在香港或美国,外资进入股...

WSJ:盘点2026年上半年标普500指数表现最好的20只股票

  2026年已过半,现在是时候盘点一下今年迄今表现最佳的股票了。 标普500指数今年迄今已累计上涨9.5%,表现不俗;根据 伦敦证券交易所集团 (LSEG)的数据,这一美国大盘基准指数在过去10年中平均每年上涨12.8%。 今年我们还看到了一轮由盈利增长驱动的牛市——或者说是分析师对滚动12个月每股收益预期的上调,这些预期被用于计算预期市盈率。 这些盈利增长一直是标普500指数信息技术板块股票上涨的驱动力,其中许多股票实现了三位数的涨幅。今年迄今,IT板块在标普500指数的11个板块中表现位居第二,该指数按价格涨幅排名的前10大股票全部来自科技板块。在该指数表现最佳的前20只股票中,除三只外,其余均为科技股。 标普500指数成分股中,今年有62%的股票实现上涨。以下是2026年上半年标普500指数中价格涨幅最大的20只股票。(本文中所有股价变动均不含股息。) 公司 2026年价格变动 2025年价格变动 预期市盈率 截至12月31日的预期市盈率 2026年滚动12个月每股收益预期变动 闪迪 858% N/A 12.0 13.6 987% 美光科技 304% 239% 8.1 7.9 294% 英特尔 278% 84% 103.8 61.2 123% Western Digital 271% 282% 35.0 19.6 107% Marvell Technology 251% -23% 60.2 24.0 40% Seagate Technology Holdings 250% 219% 34.6 20.5 107% 戴尔 243% 9% 21.2 11.1 79% 康宁 192% 84% 68.8 28.2 19% 应用材料 181% 58% 47.3 26/0 55% Advanced Micro Devices 171% 77% 56.4 33.1 59% Flex 168% 57% 31.3 17.4 49% 泛林集团 153% 137% 54.1 32.1 50% 泰瑞达 150% 54% 56.4 36.7 63% KLA 148% 93% 58.7 31.0 31% 莫德纳 137% -29% N/A N/A 1% Lumentum Holdings 133% 339% 47.6 50.2 145% Generac Holdings 115%...

世界各国军费开支排名

经济学人: 要 评估 国际事务的状况,一个好的经验法则是跟踪资金或武器的流动。国防预算可以轻易跟踪这两者。斯德哥尔摩智库 SIPRI 发布的统计数据表明,各国政府感到担忧:在研究中涉及的 173 个国家中,去年有 102 个国家增加了国防预算。从全球来看,实际支出较 2022 年增长了 6.8%,这是自 2009 年以来最大的同比增长。 在长期支出较低之后,北约在欧洲的盟友支出出现了最大增长。除美国外, 北约 成员国 在 2022 年 至 2023 年间支出增加了 680 亿美元,增幅为 19%。芬兰和瑞典加入北约后, 北约 年度支出又增加了 160 亿美元。 但这些数字很难进行比较:例如,一些国家在工资和燃料方面的支出会比其他国家多得多。为了解决这个问题, 《经济学人》 在西澳大利亚大学研究员彼得·罗伯逊的帮助下,调整了 斯德哥尔摩国际和平 研究所对军事购买力平价 (  PPP  ) 的估计。这使得国防预算与美国相当:工资根据工资差异进行调整,运营成本根据一般价格水平进行调整。(设备成本保持不变,因为大部分设备都是进口的,其相对质量很难判断。) 调整后的数据表明,乌克兰的预算增长(虽然不是其总预算)将比俄罗斯的预算增长幅度更大,尽管其预算名义增长率略低(见图 1)。而美国在 北约 的盟友所花的钱将比美元数字所显示的要重要得多。他们在 2023 年的年度支出仅为美国的 47.3%,但考虑到其较低的成本,这一数字为 78.5%。 图表:经济学人 最终排名显示,美国在国防上的支出仍然远远超过任何其他国家。2023 年,美国在武装部队上的支出为 9160 亿美元(见图 2)。总体而言,其在 北约 的 31 个盟友位居第二:他们的支出为 4340 亿美元,调整成本差异后为 7190 亿美元。北约的武装部队并不统一,但将其支出与其他国家进行比较仍然很有用。例如,俄罗斯和中国在 2023 年的支出分别仅占北约 总 支出的 8% 和 22% 。当该支出根据军事 PPP 进行调整时,它相当于 北约 支出的 24% 和 32%。 美国的盟友还有很长的路要走。 北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格最近表示,今年只有 18 个成员国能够实现北约将 GDP 至少 2% 用于国防的目标(尽管这一数字高于 2023 年的 11 个成员国)。 有些数字需要谨慎对待。各国的预算计算并不一致,而...

中国土地出让金创十年新低,预算赤字扩大

彭博: 中国土地出让金跌至十年来的最低水平,导致政府加大支出以支持经济发展,预算赤字进一步扩大。 上个月, 土地出让收入同比下降 14.6% 至 1,941 亿元人民币(270 亿美元),为 2015 年 5 月以来的最低水平。这一数字是根据彭博根据财政部周五公布的 数据 计算得出的,扭转了 4 月份 4.3% 的增幅,此前 4 月份的增幅为三个月来首次增长。 中国房地产相关收益合同 土地出让收入在四月份短暂上涨后出现两位数下滑 资料来源:彭博根据中国财政部数据计算 注:1月份没有单月数据。财政部仅发布今年前两个月的合并数据。 此次经济萎缩导致政府总收入下降,今年前五个月政府总收入达到11.2万亿元人民币。财政部只发布1月和2月的合并数据,这些数据是用于比较月度土地出让金额的平均值。 与此同时,由于当局以三年来最快的速度增加支出以促进经济增长,总支出跃升至 14.5 万亿元人民币,导致预算赤字达到 3.3 万亿元人民币。 土地销售下滑凸显房地产市场持续疲软,这是中国经济的主要国内拖累因素,而中国经济目前正面临美国提高 出口 关税的压力。这也给地方政府财政带来压力,限制了其扩大投资以促进增长的能力。 高盛集团经济学家 汪立胜在数据发布后的一份报告中写道:  “我们维持对今年政府土地出售收入可能进一步下降 5-10% 的预测,并继续认为房地产建设和投资尚未触底。” 5月份,包括购房契税 在内的房地产相关税费收入 同比下降8.6%,降幅比上月扩大0.9%。 当月 总 税收收入增长 0.6%,低于 4 月份 1.9% 的增幅。 政府的支出刺激措施是今年提振内需的关键。例如,政府通过发行特别主权债券提供补贴,推行消费品以旧换新计划,刺激了电子产品和家电的购买。 该计划非常受欢迎,以至于一些省份 在用尽国家政府拨款后暂时 停止了补贴,这促使北京向消费者 保证 将在第三季度和第四季度提供更多资金。 高盛的王先生预计,下半年中国将进一步扩大财政支出,以缓解部分行业的通货紧缩压力,并提振市场信心。他表示,今年晚些时候仍有可能修订预算,但鉴于1-6月经济增长有望超过5%,因此并不急于修订预算。