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巴菲特致股东的最后一封信(感恩节言)

**伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司**

**新闻稿**

**即时发布 - 2025年11月10日**

内布拉斯加州奥马哈市(股票代码:BRK.A; BRK.B)–

今日,沃伦·E·巴菲特将其持有的1,800股A类股转换为2,700,000股B类股,目的是将这些B类股捐赠给四个家族基金会:其中1,500,000股捐赠给苏珊·汤普森·巴菲特基金会,其余三个基金会——舍伍德基金会、霍华德·G·巴菲特基金会和NoVo基金会——各获得400,000股。这些捐赠已于今日完成。


巴菲特先生致其各位股东的评论如下:

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致我的各位股东:


我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不再在年度股东大会上无休止地讲话。用英国人的话说,我要"保持安静"了。


算是吧。


格雷格·阿贝尔将在年底成为公司的负责人。他是一位杰出的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,也是一位诚实的沟通者。祝愿他任期长久。


我将通过每年发布的感恩节致辞,继续与你们以及我的孩子们交流关于伯克希尔的事情。伯克希尔的个人股东是一个非常特殊的群体,他们异常慷慨地愿意与那些不那么幸运的人分享他们的收益。我很珍惜能与你们保持联系的机会。今年请容许我先回忆一些往事。之后,我将讨论我持有的伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些商业和个人方面的观察与思考。


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随着感恩节临近,我满怀感激且惊讶于自己在95岁高龄依然健在的运气。

在我年轻的时候,这个结果看起来可不像是个好赌注。早年,我曾险些丧命。


那是在1938年,当时的奥马哈市民将医院视为要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时似乎很自然。


我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是一位友善的天主教徒,他常常拎着一个黑色医疗包出诊。霍茨医生叫我"小船长",而且看诊收费从不昂贵。1938年,当我经历严重的腹痛时,霍茨医生来了,在稍作检查后,告诉我早上就会好的。然后他就回家吃晚饭,打了一会儿桥牌。然而,他无法将我那些有点特别的症状从脑海中驱散,于是在那天深夜,他安排我去了圣凯瑟琳医院进行紧急阑尾切除手术。在接下来的三周里,我感觉自己仿佛置身于一座女修道院,并开始享受我的新"讲台"。我喜欢说话——是的,即使在那时——修女们也很接纳我。


最棒的是,我的三年级老师马德森小姐让我班上的30名同学每人给我写一封信。我可能把男孩们的信都扔掉了,但女孩们的信却读了一遍又一遍;住院也有它的好处。


我康复过程中最精彩的部分——实际上在第一周的大部分时间里情况都很危险——是我亲爱的伊迪阿姨送的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我立刻为我所有照顾我的修女采集了指纹。(我可能是他们在圣凯瑟琳医院见到的第一个新教男孩,她们不知道会发生什么。)


我的理论——当然是完全荒谬的——是总有一天会有一个修女变坏,而联邦调查局(FBI)会发现他们忽略了给修女们采集指纹。FBI及其局长J·埃德加·胡佛在1930年代深受美国人敬仰,我幻想着胡佛先生本人会来到奥马哈,检查我这份无比珍贵的收藏。我进一步幻想,我和J·埃德加会迅速识别并逮捕那个任性的修女。全国性的名声似乎唾手可得。


显然,我的幻想从未实现。但具有讽刺意味的是,几年后情况变得很清楚,我本应该给J·埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。


嗯,那就是1930年代的奥马哈,一个雪橇、一辆自行车、一个棒球手套和一列电动火车让我和我的朋友们梦寐以求的时代。让我们看看那个时代另外几个在附近长大、极大地影响了我的人生,但我却长久以来未曾意识到的孩子。


我从查理·芒格开始,他是我64年来最好的朋友。在1930年代,查理住的地方离我自1958年起拥有并居住的房子只隔一个街区。


早年,我差一点就结识了查理。查理比我大6又2/3岁,在1940年夏天,他在我祖父的杂货店工作,每天工作10小时,挣2美元。(节俭深深流淌在巴菲特家族的血液中。)第二年,我也在店里做了类似的工作,但我直到1959年才遇见查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。


在二战服役后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久搬到了加利福尼亚。然而,查理总是谈论他在奥马哈的早年时光是塑造性格的关键时期。60多年来,查理对我产生了巨大的影响,他是一位再好不过的老师和保护我的"大哥"。我们有过分歧,但从未争吵过。"我早就告诉过你"这句话不在他的词汇表里。


1958年,我购买了我第一处也是唯一一处住宅。当然,它在奥马哈,离我长大的地方(粗略定义)大约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店大约六个街区,离我工作了64年的办公楼有6-7分钟车程。


让我们谈谈另一位奥马哈人,斯坦·利普西。斯坦在1968年将他经营的《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的要求搬到了布法罗。当时,伯克希尔的一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与其早间竞争对手进行一场生死之战,后者出版布法罗唯一的周日报纸。而我们正在输掉这场竞争。


斯坦最终为我们打造了新的周日版产品,有几年,我们的报纸——以前严重亏损——在我们3300万美元的投资上,每年获得了超过100%(税前)的回报。这在1980年代初对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。


斯坦在离我家大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。你们会记得,沃尔特在1999年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他直到2021年去世前,一直是一位宝贵的伯克希尔董事,也是一位非常亲密的朋友。沃尔特是内布拉斯加州几十年来慈善事业的领导者,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他的印记。


沃尔特就读于本森高中,我原本也计划去那里上学——直到1942年我父亲在国会竞选中击败了一位连任四届的在职议员,让所有人都大吃一惊。生活充满了意外。


等等,还有更多。


1959年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家人住在与我家直接隔街相望的一所房子里,距离芒格家曾经住的地方大约100码。唐当时是一名咖啡推销员,但命中注定将成为可口可乐公司的总裁,并且成为伯克希尔忠诚的董事。


当我遇到唐时,他年收入12,000美元,而他和他的妻子米琪正在抚养五个孩子,所有这些孩子都注定要上天主教学校(需要支付学费)。


我们两家很快成了亲密的朋友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈的克瑞顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米琪。加入可口可乐公司后,唐后来在全球范围内成为了传奇人物。


1985年,当唐担任可口可乐公司总裁时,公司推出了命运多舛的"新可乐"。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉并恢复了"经典"可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给"头号白痴"的可口可乐公司来信被迅速送到他的办公桌之后。他的"撤回"演讲堪称经典,可以在YouTube上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上,可口可乐产品属于公众,而不是公司。随后销量猛增。


你可以在CharlieRose.com上观看唐的一次精彩采访。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几个很棒的采访。)像查理·芒格一样,唐永远是一个中西部男孩,热情、友好,骨子里是美国人。


最后,在印度出生和长大的阿吉特·贾因,以及我们即将上任的加拿大籍CEO格雷格·阿贝尔,各自在20世纪末在奥马哈居住了几年。事实上,在1990年代,格雷格住在法纳姆大街,离我只有几个街区远,尽管我们当时从未见过面。


难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?


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我在华盛顿特区度过了一些青少年时光(当时我父亲在国会),1954年,我在曼哈顿找到了一份我当时以为会是永久的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼待我非常好,我也结交了许多终身朋友。纽约拥有独特的资产——现在依然如此。然而,在1956年,仅仅一年半之后,我回到了奥马哈,再也没有离开过。


后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直上公立学校(毕业于同一所高中,那所高中也曾培养了我的父亲(1921届)、我的第一任妻子苏茜(1950届),还有查理、斯坦·利普西、欧文和罗恩·布鲁姆金(他们对内布拉斯加家具城的成长至关重要),以及杰克·林瓦尔特(1923届,他创立了国民赔偿公司并于1967年将其卖给伯克希尔,这成为我们庞大的财产/意外险业务的基础)。


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我们国家有许多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗设施,每个地方肯定都有其特殊的优势和人才。但我感到非常幸运,有幸结交了许多终身朋友,遇到了我的两任妻子,在公立学校接受了良好的启蒙教育,在我很小的时候遇到了许多有趣且友善的成年奥马哈人,并在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结交了各种各样的朋友。简而言之,内布拉斯加就是家。


回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我本人都因为扎根于奥马哈而比我住在任何其他地方都做得更好。美国中部是一个非常适宜出生、养家和发展事业的地方。由于纯粹的运气,我在出生时抽到了一根长得离谱的好签。


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现在让我们谈谈我的高龄。我的基因并没有特别大的帮助——家族有史以来(诚然,年代越久远记录越模糊)的长寿纪录是92岁,直到我的出现。但我有 wise、友好且 dedicated 的奥马哈医生们,从哈雷·霍茨开始,一直持续到今天。至少有三次,我的生命得以挽救,每次都是由距离我家几英里内的医生完成的。(不过,我已经放弃给护士采集指纹了。在95岁高龄,你可以有很多怪癖……但总有限度。)


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那些活到老年的人需要大量的好运,每天都要避开香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击,你能想到的一切。


但幸运女神是变幻无常的,而且——没有别的词更合适——极度不公平。在许多情况下,我们的领导人和富人获得的运气远远超过了他们应得的份额——而受益者往往不愿承认这一点。世袭继承者在离开母体的那一刻就实现了终身的财务独立,而另一些人则在他们早年生活中面临困境,或者更糟的是,身患使他们丧失我所认为理所当然的能力的身体或精神疾病。在世界上许多人口稠密的地区,我很可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们处境会更糟。


我出生于1930年,健康、智力尚可、白人、男性,并且在美国。哇!谢谢你,幸运女神。我的姐妹们拥有同等的智力,个性也比我好,但却面临着截然不同的前景。在我生命的大部分时间里,幸运女神持续眷顾,但她有比与90多岁老人打交道更重要的事情要做。运气有其限度。


相反,时间老人发现随着我年事渐高,我变得更有趣了。而且他是不可战胜的;对他来说,每个人最终都会出现在他的记分牌上,记为"胜利"。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时间老人就在附近。


我变老得比较晚——每个人的衰老起始时间差异很大——但一旦出现,就无法否认。


令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。虽然我行动缓慢,阅读越来越困难,但我每周五天都在办公室,与优秀的人们一起工作。偶尔,我会想到一个有用的主意,或者收到一个我们原本可能收不到的报价。由于伯克希尔的规模和市场水平,好主意很少——但并非没有。


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然而,我意想不到的长寿对我的家庭和实现我的慈善目标产生了不可避免的重大影响。


让我们探讨一下。


**接下来是什么**


我的孩子们都已超过了正常的退休年龄,分别达到了72岁、70岁和67岁。押注他们三个——现在在许多方面都处于巅峰状态——都会享有我这种延迟衰老的特殊运气,将是一个错误。为了提高他们在继任受托人接替之前能够处置基本上是我的全部遗产的概率,我需要加快向他们三个基金会进行生前捐赠的步伐。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面正值黄金时期,但尚未进入老年。这个"蜜月"期不会永远持续。


幸运的是,调整路线很容易执行。然而,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望保留相当数量的"A"类股份,直到伯克希尔的股东们对格雷格建立起像查理和我长期以来所享有的那种信任。这种信任水平不应该需要太长时间。我的孩子们以及伯克希尔的董事们都已经百分百支持格雷格。


所有三个孩子现在都具备了成熟、头脑、精力和本能来管理分配一大笔财富。他们还有一个优势,就是在我离世很久之后他们依然在世,并且如果需要,可以采取预见性和反应性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的事态发展。他们很可能需要适应周围显著变化的世界。来自坟墓的指令记录不佳,我从未有过这样做的冲动。


幸运的是,所有三个孩子都从他们母亲那里继承了主导性的基因。随着几十年的过去,我也成为了他们思维和行为更好的榜样。然而,我永远无法达到他们母亲的水平。


我的孩子们有三名候补受托人,以防任何过早死亡或丧失行为能力的情况。候补受托人没有排名,也不与特定的孩子绑定。这三个人都是杰出的人,并且深谙世故。他们没有动机冲突。


我向我的孩子们保证,他们不需要创造奇迹,也不必害怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也犯过不少错误。他们只需要比政府活动和/或私人慈善机构通常达到的效果稍好一些,同时认识到这些其他财富再分配方式也有其缺点。


早些时候,我曾考虑过各种宏大的慈善计划。尽管我很固执,但这些计划被证明不可行。在我多年的生涯中,我也目睹了政治投机分子、世袭选择,以及是的,无能或古怪的慈善家们所进行的考虑不周的财富转移。


如果我的孩子们只是做得体面,他们可以确信,他们的母亲和我会感到欣慰。他们的本能很好,他们每个人都经过了多年的实践,最初是非常小的金额,后来不定期地增加到每年超过5亿美元。


所有三人都喜欢长时间工作,以各自的方式帮助他人。


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我加快向孩子们基金会的生前捐赠,绝不反映我对伯克希尔前景的看法有任何改变。格雷格·阿贝尔已经完全超出了我最初认为他应该成为伯克希尔下一任CEO时对他的高期望。他对我们许多业务和人员的理解远胜于我,而且他在许多CEO甚至不考虑的事情上学习速度非常快。我找不到任何一个CEO、管理顾问、学者、政府成员——随便你说——能让我选择代替格雷格来管理你和我的储蓄。


例如,格雷格对我们财产/意外险业务的潜在优势和风险的理解,比许多长期的财产/意外险高管都要深刻。我希望他的健康能维持几十年。只要有一点运气,伯克希尔在下个世纪应该只需要五到六位CEO。它尤其应该避免那些目标是65岁退休、追求引人注目的财富或开创王朝的人。


一个不愉快的现实:偶尔,母公司或子公司的一位出色且忠诚的CEO会患上痴呆症、阿尔茨海默病或其他使人衰弱且长期的疾病。查理和我遇到过几次这个问题,但未能采取行动。这种失误可能是一个巨大的错误。董事会必须对CEO层面的这种可能性保持警惕,CEO也必须对子公司层面的可能性保持警惕。这说起来容易做起来难;我可以举出过去一些大公司的例子。董事们应该保持警惕并直言不讳,这是我唯一能给出的建议。


在我有生之年,改革者试图通过要求披露老板的薪酬与普通员工的平均薪酬之比来让CEO们难堪。委托书说明书迅速膨胀到100多页,而早些时候只有20页或更少。


但良好的意图并未奏效;反而适得其反。根据我的大多数观察——"A"公司的CEO看着他在"B"公司的竞争对手,并微妙地向他的董事会传达他应该值得更多。当然,他也提高了董事的薪酬,并且谨慎地选择薪酬委员会的人选。新规则产生了嫉妒,而不是节制。


这种攀比行为自行发展,愈演愈烈。通常困扰非常富有的CEO们的是——他们毕竟也是人——其他CEO变得更富有了。嫉妒和贪婪携手同行。又有哪个顾问曾建议过大幅削减CEO的薪酬或董事的报酬呢?


* * * * * * * * * * * *

总体而言,伯克希尔的业务前景略优于平均水平,由少数几个不相关且规模可观的瑰宝业务引领。然而,一二十年后,将会有许多公司比伯克希尔做得更好;我们的规模带来了负担。


伯克希尔发生毁灭性灾难的可能性比我已知的任何企业都要小。而且,伯克希尔拥有比我熟悉的几乎任何公司(而我见过很多)都更具股东意识的管理层和董事会。最后,伯克希尔将始终以使其存在成为美国一项资产的方式管理,并避免可能导致其成为乞求者的活动。随着时间的推移,我们的经理们应该会变得相当富有——他们肩负着重要的责任——但他们没有追求世袭或引人注目财富的欲望。


我们的股价会反复无常地波动,偶尔会下跌50%左右,就像在当前管理层下的60年里发生过三次那样。不要绝望;美国会复苏,伯克希尔的股票也会。


**最后几点想法**


也许有一点自我服务的观察。我很高兴地说,我对后半生的感觉比前半生更好。我的建议是:不要为过去的错误过分自责——至少从中吸取一点教训,然后继续前进。改进永远不晚。找到正确的英雄并效仿他们。你可以从汤姆·墨菲开始;他是最棒的。


记住阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔,后来以诺贝尔奖闻名,据说——他读到了自己的讣告,那是在他兄弟去世时报纸搞错了误印的。他对他所读到的内容感到震惊,并意识到他应该改变自己的行为。


不要指望新闻编辑室的混乱:决定你希望你的讣告说些什么,然后过一种值得这样评价的生活。


伟大不是通过积累巨额金钱、大量公众关注或政府中的巨大权力来实现的。当你以成千上万种方式中的任何一种帮助某人时,你就是在帮助世界。善良无需成本,但也无价。无论你是否信仰宗教,作为行为指南,"黄金法则"都很难被超越。


我写这些,是作为一个曾无数次考虑不周、犯过许多错误,但也非常幸运地从一些优秀的朋友那里学会了如何更好地行事(然而,离完美还有很长的路)的人。请记住,清洁工和董事长一样都是人。


* * * * * * * * * * * *

我祝愿所有读到这篇文章的人感恩节非常快乐。是的,即使是那些混蛋;改变永远不晚。记得感谢美国最大限度地提供了你的机会。但它在分配其奖赏时——不可避免地——反复无常,有时甚至腐败。


非常仔细地选择你的英雄,然后效仿他们。你永远不会完美,但你总能变得更好。


**关于伯克希尔**


伯克希尔·哈撒韦及其子公司从事多样化的业务活动,包括保险和再保险、公用事业和能源、货运铁路运输、制造、服务和零售。公司普通股在纽约证券交易所上市,交易代码为BRK.A和BRK.B。


– 结束 –


**联系方式**

马克·D·汉堡

402-346-1400



BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

NEWS RELEASE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 10, 2025

Omaha, NE (BRK.A; BRK.B) –

Today, Warren E. Buffett converted 1,800 A shares into 2,700,000 B shares in order to give these B

shares to four family foundations: 1,500,000 shares to The Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation and

400,000 shares to each of The Sherwood Foundation, The Howard G. Buffett Foundation and NoVo

Foundation. These donations have been delivered today.

Mr. Buffett’s comments to his fellow shareholders follow:

* * * * * * * * * * * *

To My Fellow Shareholders:

I will no longer be writing Berkshire’s annual report or talking endlessly at the annual

meeting. As the British would say, I’m “going quiet.”

Sort of.

Greg Abel will become the boss at yearend. He is a great manager, a tireless worker and an

honest communicator. Wish him an extended tenure.

I will continue talking to you and my children about Berkshire via my annual Thanksgiving

message. Berkshire’s individual shareholders are a very special group who are unusually generous in

sharing their gains with others less fortunate. I enjoy the chance to keep in touch with you. Indulge

me this year as I first reminisce a bit. After that, I will discuss the plans for distribution of my

Berkshire shares. Finally, I will offer a few business and personal observations.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

As Thanksgiving approaches, I’m grateful and surprised by my luck in being alive at 95.

When I was young, this outcome did not look like a good bet. Early on, I nearly died.

It was 1938 and Omaha hospitals were then thought of by its citizens as either Catholic or

Protestant, a classification that seemed natural at the time.

Our family doctor, Harley Hotz, was a friendly Catholic who made house calls toting a black

bag. Dr. Hotz called me Skipper and never charged much for his visits. When I experienced a bad

bellyache in 1938, Dr. Hotz came by and, after probing a bit, told me I would be OK in the morning.

He then went home, had dinner and played a little bridge. Dr. Hotz couldn’t, however, get my

somewhat peculiar symptoms out of his mind and later that night he dispatched me to St. Catherine’s

Hospital for an emergency appendectomy. During the next three weeks, I felt like I was in a nunnery,

and began enjoying my new “podium.” I liked to talk – yes, even then – and the nuns embraced me.

To top things off, Miss Madsen, my third-grade teacher, told my 30 classmates to each write

me a letter. I probably threw away the letters from the boys but read and reread those from the girls;

hospitalization had its rewards.

The highlight of my recovery – which actually was dicey for much of the first week – was a

gift from my wonderful Aunt Edie. She brought me a very professional-looking fingerprinting set,

and I promptly fingerprinted all of my attending nuns. (I was probably the first Protestant kid they

had seen at St. Catherine’s and they didn’t know what to expect.)

My theory – totally nutty, of course – was that someday a nun would go bad and the FBI

would find that they had neglected to fingerprint nuns. The FBI and its director, J. Edgar Hoover, had

become revered by Americans in the 1930s, and I envisioned Mr. Hoover, himself, coming to Omaha

to inspect my invaluable collection. I further fantasized that J. Edgar and I would quickly identify

and apprehend the wayward nun. National fame seemed certain.

Obviously, my fantasy never materialized. But, ironically, some years later it became clear

that I should have fingerprinted J. Edgar himself as he became disgraced for misusing his post.

Well, that was Omaha in the 1930s, when a sled, a bicycle, a baseball glove and an electric

train were coveted by me and my friends. Let’s look at a few other kids from that era, who grew up

very nearby and greatly influenced my life but of whom I was for long unaware.

I’ll begin with Charlie Munger, my best pal for 64 years. In the 1930s, Charlie lived a block

away from the house I have owned and occupied since 1958.

Early on, I missed befriending Charlie by a whisker. Charlie, 6 ⅔ years older than I, worked

in the summer of 1940 at my grandfather’s grocery store, earning $2 for a 10-hour day. (Thrift runs

deep in Buffett blood.) The following year I did similar work at the store, but I never met Charlie

until 1959 when he was 35 and I was 28.

After serving in World War II, Charlie graduated from Harvard Law and then moved

permanently to California. Charlie, however, forever talked of his early years in Omaha as formative.

For more than 60 years, Charlie had a huge impact on me and could not have been a better teacher

and protective “big brother.” We had differences but never had an argument. “I told you so” was not

in his vocabulary.

In 1958, I bought my first and only home. Of course, it was in Omaha, located about two

miles from where I grew up (loosely defined), less than two blocks from my in-laws, about six blocks

from the Buffett grocery store and a 6-7-minute drive from the office building where I have worked

for 64 years.

Let’s move on to another Omahan, Stan Lipsey. Stan sold the Omaha Sun Newspapers

(weeklies) to Berkshire in 1968 and a decade later moved to Buffalo at my request. The Buffalo

Evening News, owned by a Berkshire affiliate, was then locked in a battle to the death with its

morning competitor who published Buffalo’s only Sunday paper. And we were losing.

Stan eventually built our new Sunday product, and for some years our paper – formerly

hemorrhaging cash – earned over 100% annually (pre-tax) on our $33 million investment. This was

important money to Berkshire in the early 1980s.

Stan grew up about five blocks from my home. One of Stan’s neighbors was Walter Scott, Jr.

Walter, you will remember, brought MidAmerican Energy to Berkshire in 1999. He was also a valued

Berkshire director until his death in 2021 and a very close friend. Walter was Nebraska’s

philanthropic leader for decades and both Omaha and the state carries his imprint.

Walter attended Benson High School, which I was scheduled to attend as well – until my dad

surprised everyone in 1942 by beating a four-term incumbent in a Congressional race. Life is full of

surprises.

Wait, there’s more.

In 1959, Don Keough and his young family lived in a home located directly across the street

from my house and about 100 yards away from where the Munger family had lived. Don was then a

coffee salesman but was destined to become president of Coca-Cola as well as a devoted director of

Berkshire.

When I met Don, he was earning $12,000 a year while he and his wife Mickie were raising

five children, all destined for Catholic schools (with tuition requirements).

Our families became fast friends. Don came from a farm in northwest Iowa and graduated

from Omaha’s Creighton University. Early on, he married Mickie, an Omaha girl. After joining Coke,

Don went on to become legendary around the globe.

In 1985, when Don was president of Coke, the company launched its ill-fated New Coke.

Don made a famous speech in which he apologized to the public and reinstated “Old” Coke. This

change of heart took place after Don explained that Coke incoming mail addressed to “Supreme

Idiot” was promptly delivered to his desk. His “withdrawal” speech is a classic and can be viewed on

YouTube. He cheerfully acknowledged that, in truth, the Coca-Cola product belonged to the public

and not to the company. Sales subsequently soared.

You can watch Don on CharlieRose.com in a wonderful interview. (Tom Murphy and Kay

Graham have a couple of gems as well.) Like Charlie Munger, Don forever remained a Midwestern

boy, enthusiastic, friendly and American to the core.

Finally, Ajit Jain, born and raised in India, as well as Greg Abel, our Canadian CEO-to-be,

each lived in Omaha for several years late in the 20th Century. Indeed, in the 1990s, Greg lived only a

few blocks away from me on Farnam Street, though we never met at the time.

Can it be that there is some magic ingredient in Omaha’s water?

* * * * * * * * * * * *

I lived a few teenage years in Washington, DC (when my dad was in Congress) and in 1954 I

took what I thought would be a permanent job in Manhattan. There I was treated wonderfully by Ben

Graham and Jerry Newman and made many life-long friends. New York had unique assets – and still

does. Nevertheless, in 1956, after only 1½ years, I returned to Omaha, never to wander again.

Subsequently, my three children, as well as several grandchildren, were raised in Omaha. My

children always attended public schools (graduating from the same high school that educated my dad

(class of 1921), my first wife, Susie (class of 1950) as well as Charlie, Stan Lipsey, Irv and Ron

Blumkin, who were key to growing Nebraska Furniture Mart, and Jack Ringwalt (class of 1923),

who founded National Indemnity and sold it to Berkshire in 1967 where it became the base upon

which our huge P/C operation was constructed.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Our country has many great companies, great schools, great medical facilities and each

definitely has its own special advantages along with talented people. But I feel very lucky to have

had the good fortune to make many lifelong friends, to meet both of my wives, to receive a great start

in education at public schools, to meet many interesting and friendly adult Omahans when I was very

young, and to make a wide variety of friends in the Nebraska National Guard. In short, Nebraska has

been home.

Looking back I feel that both Berkshire and I did better because of our base in Omaha than if

I had resided anywhere else. The center of the United States was a very good place to be born, to

raise a family, and to build a business. Through dumb luck, I drew a ridiculously long straw at birth.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Now let’s move on to my advanced age. My genes haven’t been particularly helpful – the

family’s all-time record for longevity (admittedly family records get fuzzy as you work backwards)

was 92 until I came along. But I have had wise, friendly and dedicated Omaha doctors, starting with

Harley Hotz, and continuing to this day. At least three times, my life has been saved, each with

doctors based within a few miles from my home. (I have given up fingerprinting nurses, however.

You can get away with many eccentricities at 95 . . . . . but there are limits.)

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Those who reach old age need a huge dose of good luck, daily escaping banana peels, natural

disasters, drunk or distracted drivers, lightning strikes, you name it.

But Lady Luck is fickle and – no other term fits – wildly unfair. In many cases, our leaders

and the rich have received far more than their share of luck – which, too often, the recipients prefer

not to acknowledge. Dynastic inheritors have achieved lifetime financial independence the moment

they emerged from the womb, while others have arrived, facing a hell-hole during their early life or,

worse, disabling physical or mental infirmities that rob them of what I have taken for granted. In

many heavily-populated parts of the world, I would likely have had a miserable life and my sisters

would have had one even worse.

I was born in 1930 healthy, reasonably intelligent, white, male and in America. Wow! Thank

you, Lady Luck. My sisters had equal intelligence and better personalities than I but faced a much

different outlook. Lady Luck continued to drop by during much of my life, but she has better things

to do than work with those in their 90s. Luck has its limits.

Father Time, to the contrary, now finds me more interesting as I age. And he is undefeated;

for him, everyone ends up on his score card as “wins.” When balance, sight, hearing and memory are

all on a persistently downward slope, you know Father Time is in the neighborhood.

I was late in becoming old – its onset materially varies – but once it appears, it is not to be

denied.

To my surprise, I generally feel good. Though I move slowly and read with increasing

difficulty, I am at the office five days a week where I work with wonderful people. Occasionally, I

get a useful idea or am approached with an offer we might not otherwise have received. Because of

Berkshire’s size and because of market levels, ideas are few – but not zero.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

My unexpected longevity, however, has unavoidable consequences of major importance to my

family and the achievement of my charitable objectives.

Let’s explore them.

What Comes Next

My children are all above normal retirement age, having reached 72, 70 and 67. It would be a

mistake to wager that all three – now at their peak in many respects – will enjoy my exceptional luck

in delayed aging. To improve the probability that they will dispose of what will essentially be my

entire estate before alternate trustees replace them, I need to step up the pace of lifetime gifts to their

three foundations. My children are now at their prime in respect to experience and wisdom but have

yet to enter old age. That “honeymoon” period will not last forever.

Fortunately, a course correction is easy to execute. There is, however, one additional factor to

consider: I would like to keep a significant amount of “A” shares until Berkshire shareholders

develop the comfort with Greg that Charlie and I long enjoyed. That level of confidence shouldn’t

take long. My children are already 100% behind Greg as are the Berkshire directors.

All three children now have the maturity, brains, energy and instincts to disburse a large

fortune. They will also have the advantage of being above ground when I am long gone and, if

necessary, can adopt policies both anticipatory and reactive to federal tax policies or other

developments affecting philanthropy. They may well need to adapt to a significantly changing world

around them. Ruling from the grave does not have a great record, and I have never had an urge to do

so.

Fortunately, all three children received a dominant dosage of their genes from their mother.

As the decades have passed, I have also become a better model for their thinking and behavior. I will

never, however, achieve parity with their mother.

My children have three alternate trustees in case of any premature deaths or disabilities. The

alternates are not ranked or tied to a specific child. All three are exceptional humans and wise in the

ways of the world. They have no conflicting motives.

I have assured my children that they do not need to perform miracles nor fear failures or

disappointments. These are inevitable, and I have made my share. They simply need to improve

somewhat upon what generally is achieved by government activities and/or private philanthropy,

recognizing these other methods of redistribution of wealth have shortcomings as well.

Early on, I contemplated various grand philanthropic plans. Though I was stubborn, these did

not prove feasible. During my many years, I’ve also watched ill-conceived wealth transfers by

political hacks, dynastic choices and, yes, inept or quirky philanthropists.

If my children simply do a decent job, they can be certain that their mother and I would be

pleased. Their instincts are good and they each have had years of practice with very small sums

initially that have been irregularly increased to more than $500 million annually.

All three like working long hours to help others, each in their own way.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

The acceleration of my lifetime gifts to my children’s foundations in no way reflects any

change in my views about Berkshire’s prospects. Greg Abel has more than met the high expectations

I had for him when I first thought he should be Berkshire’s next CEO. He understands many of our

businesses and personnel far better than I now do, and he is a very fast learner about matters many

CEOs don’t even consider. I can’t think of a CEO, a management consultant, an academic, a member

of government – you name it – that I would select over Greg to handle your savings and mine.

Greg understands, for example, far more about both the upside potential and the dangers of

our P/C insurance business than do a great many long-time P/C executives. My hope is that his health

remains good for several decades. With a little luck, Berkshire should require only five or six CEOs

over the next century. It should particularly avoid those whose goal is to retire at 65, to become lookat-

me rich or to initiate a dynasty.

One unpleasant reality: Occasionally, a wonderful and loyal CEO of the parent or a

subsidiary will succumb to dementia, Alzheimer’s or another debilitating and long-term disease.

Charlie and I encountered this problem several times and failed to act. This failure can be a

huge mistake. The Board must be alert to this possibility at the CEO level and the CEO must be alert

to the possibility at subsidiaries. This is easier said than done; I could cite a few examples from the

past at major companies. Directors should be alert and speak up is all that I can advise.

During my lifetime, reformers sought to embarrass CEOs by requiring the disclosure of the

compensation of the boss compared to what was being paid to the average employee. Proxy

statements promptly ballooned to 100-plus pages compared to 20 or less earlier.

But the good intentions didn’t work; instead they backfired. Based on the majority of my

observations – the CEO of company “A” looked at his competitor at company “B” and subtly

conveyed to his board that he should be worth more. Of course, he also boosted the pay of directors

and was careful who he placed on the compensation committee. The new rules produced envy, not

moderation.

The ratcheting took on a life of its own. What often bothers very wealthy CEOs – they are

human, after all – is that other CEOs are getting even richer. Envy and greed walk hand in hand. And

what consultant ever recommended a serious cut in CEO compensation or board payments?

* * * * * * * * * * * *

In aggregate, Berkshire’s businesses have moderately better-than-average prospects, led by a

few non-correlated and sizable gems. However, a decade or two from now, there will be many

companies that have done better than Berkshire; our size takes its toll.

Berkshire has less chance of a devastating disaster than any business I know. And, Berkshire

has a more shareholder-conscious management and board than almost any company with which I am

familiar (and I’ve seen a lot). Finally, Berkshire will always be managed in a manner that will make

its existence an asset to the United States and eschew activities that would lead it to become a

supplicant. Over time, our managers should grow quite wealthy – they have important

responsibilities – but do not have the desire for dynastic or look-at-me wealth.

Our stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three

times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will

Berkshire shares.

A Few Final Thoughts

One perhaps self-serving observation. I’m happy to say I feel better about the second half of

my life than the first. My advice: Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes – learn at least a little

from them and move on. It is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them. You can

start with Tom Murphy; he was the best.

Remember Alfred Nobel, later of Nobel Prize fame, who – reportedly – read his own obituary

that was mistakenly printed when his brother died and a newspaper got mixed up. He was horrified at

what he read and realized he should change his behavior.

Don’t count on a newsroom mix-up: Decide what you would like your obituary to say and

live the life to deserve it.

Greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts

of publicity or great power in government. When you help someone in any of thousands of ways, you

help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it’s hard to

beat The Golden Rule as a guide to behavior.

I write this as one who has been thoughtless countless times and made many mistakes but

also became very lucky in learning from some wonderful friends how to behave better (still a long

way from perfect, however). Keep in mind that the cleaning lady is as much a human being as the

Chairman.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

I wish all who read this a very happy Thanksgiving. Yes, even the jerks; it’s never too late to

change. Remember to thank America for maximizing your opportunities. But it is – inevitably –

capricious and sometimes venal in distributing its rewards.

Choose your heroes very carefully and then emulate them. You will never be perfect, but you

can always be better.

About Berkshire

Berkshire Hathaway and its subsidiaries engage in diverse business activities including insurance and

reinsurance, utilities and energy, freight rail transportation, manufacturing, services and retailing.

Common stock of the company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, trading symbols BRK.A

and BRK.B.

– End –

Contact

Marc D. Hamburg

402-346-1400

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The following is a reformatted version of prepared remarks titled “Monetary Policy and the Fed’s Framework Review,” which Federal Reserve Chair   Jerome Powell   is delivering Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming: 以下是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔发表题为“货币政策和美联储框架评估”的准备好的讲话的重新格式化版本: Over the course of this year, the U.S. economy has shown resilience in a context of sweeping changes in economic policy. In terms of the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, the labor market remains near maximum employment, and inflation, though still somewhat elevated, has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs. At the same time, the balance of risks appears to be shifting. 今年以来,在经济政策全面变革的背景下,美国经济展现出韧性。就美联储的双重使命目标而言,劳动力市场仍接近就业最大化,通胀虽然仍略有上升,但已较疫情后高点大幅回落。与此同时,风险平衡似乎正在发生变化。 In my remarks today, I will first address the current economic situation and the near-term outlook for monetary policy. I will then turn to the results of our second public review of our monetary policy framework, as captured in the revised ...

伊朗战争冲击华尔街投资组合防御,令其遭受重创

 BBG: 伊朗战争引发的市场下跌 正在演变成华尔街的全面崩盘。 为结束战乱、恢复中东石油供应所做的努力,反而导致局势进一步 升级 ,进而加剧了市场的恐慌情绪。仅周五一天, 纳斯达克100指数 就下跌了1.9%,并进入 回调区间 ; 标普500指数连续 第五周下跌,创下自2022年以来最长的连跌纪录;债券价格下跌,将基准 30年期国债收益率 推低至5%左右; 比特币价格 也跌至战前峰值的一半左右。 本周最后一个交易日,抛售潮愈演愈烈,标普500指数创下自去年关税风波以来最大的两日跌幅。对战争影响消费支出的担忧导致 非必需消费品 类股下跌3%,创五个月来最大跌幅。过去两周大部分时间表现坚挺的金融股下跌2.5%,而芝加哥期权交易所 波动率指数(  VIX)突破30,达到近一年来的最高水平。 投资者现在几乎放眼望去,形势一片黯淡: 油价 在每桶 110 美元左右徘徊;通胀预期不断攀升;不久前还在制定降息计划的央行官员现在正在考虑加息;股市正经历三年多来最糟糕的一个月。 更糟糕的是,投资者常用的 防御工具几乎都 未能阻止下跌趋势。多元化投资组合的核心四大资产类别中,至少有三类已连续四周同步下跌,创下自2022年5月以来的最长连跌纪录。 周五,美国和以色列轰炸了伊朗的核目标和钢铁设施,而美国总统 特朗普 推迟了伊朗同意重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的最后期限,否则伊朗的发电厂将面临打击。市场持续下跌,与周一形成鲜明对比。 周一 ,特朗​​普收回了轰炸伊朗能源基础设施的威胁,引发了资产价格的反弹。 Federated Hermes股票副首席投资官史蒂夫·基亚瓦罗 内表示:“特朗普曾试图通过言语安抚石油和债券市场,让它们保持冷静,等待冲突结束。 但如今市场对此并未做出反应。” 投资者第五次在周末前抛售风险资产。尽管特朗普的国务卿 马可·卢比奥 预测这场战争只需“ 几周而不是几个月 ”就能取胜,但损失依然扩大。 “几周前,这条新闻肯定会引发市场剧烈波动,但今天却没有任何反应,” Instinet股票交易主管 拉里·韦斯表示 。“没人知道下一步会发生什么,而且人们对美国政府和伊朗方面的声明都存在根深蒂固的不信任感。” 多年来,注重多元化投资的投资者一直承受着痛苦。但这场战争生动地证明,债券、黄金、波动率交易和加密货币都可能同时失灵——军事升级、中美贸易摩擦以及鹰派央行重新定价...

伊朗局势冲击令投资者“无处可逃”,股市和债市同步暴跌

FT: 由于伊朗战争引发的能源冲击让投资者“无处可藏”,本月全球股票和债券遭遇了自 2022 年以来最大的合计抛售。 追踪发达市场和新兴市场股票的MSCI全球所有国家指数在3月份下跌了约9%,原因是中东战争 爆发 以及至关重要的霍尔木兹海峡事实上关闭,导致能源价格飙升。 与此同时,全球政府和企业债券的综合指数下跌超过 3%,因为投资者押注 各国央行 将需要提高借贷成本以遏制通胀的影响。 这些举措共同导致传统的“60/40”股票债券投资组合有望创下自2022年9月以来最糟糕的一个月表现。当时,上一轮全球加息周期重创了 市场 。就连黄金价格也大幅下跌,投资者纷纷抛售此前盈利的交易,凸显了金融市场避险资产的匮乏。 “对投资者来说,什么有效?什么无效,”Tikehau Capital资本市场策略主管拉斐尔·图因表示。“这真的是你能想象到的最糟糕的局面之一。过去几周,管理市场非常困难。”  继周四遭遇战争爆发以来最糟糕的一天后,华尔街股市周五延续跌势。此前,美国总统特朗普延长了对伊朗能源基础设施发动攻击的最后期限,但未能安抚投资者。标普500指数下跌1.7%,本月累计跌幅超过7%。 政府债券 的抛售潮 将10年期美国国债收益率推高至4.48%,创下7月以来的最高水平。在比美国更依赖能源进口的欧洲,收益率也触及了冲突期间的高点。 瑞穗银行欧洲、中东和非洲地区固定收益策略主管乔丹·罗切斯特表示,特朗普延长最后期限“并不能解决霍尔木兹海峡关闭日益加剧的问题”。“市场可能会减少对白宫空谈的关注,而更多地关注实际存在的能源短缺问题。” 自冲突爆发以来,国际原油基准布伦特原油价格已飙升超过 50%。 这引发了人们对全球“滞胀”(经济增长乏力与物价上涨并存)的担忧,事实证明,滞胀对股票和固定收益市场都是有害的,就像四年前俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰后能源价格飙升时的情况一样。 “对投资者来说,这一个月非常艰难,”宏观策略师兼Satori Insights创始人马特·金表示。 “ 不仅是传统的60/40策略,几乎所有主流多元资产投资组合类别今年以来都出现了亏损。” 由于投资者纷纷抛售此前两年强劲上涨行情(今年1月达到顶峰)带来的收益,加之利率预期大幅走高削弱了贵金属的吸引力,黄金价格本月已下跌15%。法国巴黎银行资产管理公司多元资产投资组合经理Sophie Huynh表示,由于“无处可藏”,...

伊朗战争考验唐纳德·特朗普对石油市场“痛苦”的承受能力

 FT: 投资者正在寻找促使唐纳德·特朗普在伊朗战争问题上改变政策的“痛点”,因为美国总统的社交媒体帖子引发了石油市场的剧烈波动。 自特朗普发动 中东战争 以来,他往往会在周末石油市场休市期间加大对伊朗政权的威胁力度,并在油价上涨时暗示即将实现和平。 这些举措是他的政府为抑制汽油价格上涨而采取的措施之一,距离中期选举仅剩几个月,届时民众将把汽油价格负担能力危机列入议程。 这一模式凸显了石油 市场在冲突进程中的核心地位 ,以及白宫在阻止原油价格失控方面取得的成功——至少到目前为止是这样。 “很明显,特朗普害怕油价高企……汽油价格超过4美元对政治来说是致命的,”Onyx Capital Group的石油分析师豪尔赫·蒙特佩克说。“另一方面,他的自尊心也很重要。他不能让自己看起来输了。” 3月9日,布伦特原油价格突破每桶119美元高位,并在过去几周内剧烈波动,原因是伊朗对穿越霍尔木兹海峡的船只和海湾地区的能源设施发动了袭击。 美国消费者和企业开始感受到这些影响:汽油价格上涨超过三分之一,接近每加仑 4 美元,而柴油(工业的重要燃料)价格已超过 5 美元。  一位资深能源交易员指出,他们观察到一个明显的模式:每当美国石油价格(目前比布伦特原油价格低约 10 美元)接近每桶 95 至 100 美元时,政府的缓和言论就会加剧,市场对政府可能干预石油市场的猜测也会越来越高。 他们表示,到目前为止,这种“口头劝说”有助于抑制价格。但他们也警告说,如果出现实物短缺,市场价格可能会大幅上涨。 一些交易员表示,鉴于伊朗战争造成的破坏程度,他们认为油价应该更高,但很少有人敢于做空特朗普通过社交媒体帖子和电视采访进行的干预,他们认为这些干预旨在打压油价。 白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯表示:“这些说法完全是错误的。特朗普总统一直就这些暂时的、短期的干扰向美国民众保持完全透明的态度,他专注于做正确的事情——消除伊朗恐怖政权对美国及其盟友的威胁。” 自去年这个时候特朗普在关税问题上反复无常以来,投资者已经习惯了他反复无常的政策制定——当时他多次政策转向,催生了“特朗普总是临阵退缩”的说法。 但过去一周前后矛盾的信息传递,让特朗普的不可预测性达到了新的高度。 自上周五以来,美国政府威胁要从其战略石油储备中释放数亿桶石油,向中东部署陆军第 82 空降师的精锐伞兵,并威胁要“摧毁”伊朗的发电...

市场并非为特朗普永无休止的乒乓球比赛而设

 FT: 对市场而言,伊朗战争简直是一团糟。战事时而爆发,时而停止,时而好转,时而恶化,几乎全球所有资产类别都像一场地狱般的乒乓球比赛一样,随着每一条新的新闻而剧烈波动。 坦白说,其中一些事情追踪起来太过累人,最终也毫无意义。但一旦混乱过去,这一事件将在投资者心中留下深刻的印记。 上周一的景象将这种疯狂演绎得淋漓尽致。欧洲的投资者们在早餐时间就已忧心忡忡,他们担心该地区本已惨烈的冲突会进一步升级,推高能源价格,重创对通胀敏感的债券,并拖累股市。 当天午餐前,唐纳德·特朗普在社交媒体上轻点“发送”按钮,就扭转了短期市场走势,声称与伊朗进行了“非常好的、富有成效的对话”,旨在寻求解决方案。尽管伊朗坚称并未进行过此类会谈,但油价仍当日下跌了10%。 到了周三,“和平交易”甚嚣尘上,这主要得益于美国提出的结束敌对行动计划,该计划由巴基斯坦担任调解人,而与此同时,华盛顿正准备向该地区增派数千名士兵。这份“15点和平计划”最终会不会又是一次虚晃一枪?交易员们不得而知,但他们对特朗普政策出尔反尔的迹象早已了然于心,市场也对此做出了相应的反应。  于是,我们步履蹒跚地前行,进退维谷:一方面是可能噩梦般的近期未来——全球能源供应极度匮乏;另一方面则是勉强维持现状——美国总统宣布胜选后便撒手不管。毫不夸张地说,这两种截然不同的结果对市场和全球经济的影响截然不同。任何投资者贸然转向任何一方都是不明智的。 这使得大多数市场波动幅度不大,但波动范围相对较窄。自冲突爆发以来,全球股市已下跌6%。即便如此,这也只是自去年11月以来的最低点——远称不上灾难性,也远不及去年4月特朗普对全球加征巨额贸易关税时我们所看到的跌幅。 对于认同特朗普经济学的市场参与者来说,这是一个信号,表明我们都应该忽略杰富瑞分析师大卫·泽沃斯所说的“所有与旅行相关的恐慌言论”。  “我知道欧洲人现在情绪相当低落,”他在本周给客户的一份报告中写道,这份报告有助于我们了解特朗普团队可能如何看待金融市场历史上的这一时刻。泽沃斯承认,该地区短期债务市场的一些糟糕波动“造成了严重的痛苦”。“但抛开这些对全球市场影响不大的波动不谈,市场表现远比许多人预期的要稳定得多。这是事实。也正因如此,我仍然相当乐观地认为,这一切终将过去。” 他说的“脾气暴躁”这一点确实没错,他也指出市场总体上表现出了惊人的稳定性。不过...

伊朗战争与以往市场冲击事件有何不同

 WSJ: 对石油市场而言,眼下的利害关系空前重大。 特朗普政府一方面寻求与伊朗和谈,另一方面又在附近增派部队。交易员警告称,冲突每持续一天,能源冲击就会加剧一分,全球经济以及股票和债券市场也将陷入更深的险境。 以下是此次市场动荡与以往冲击的对比。 实际供应中断规模超过以往任何时候 霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油市场的一个咽喉要道,日均1亿桶原油市场中约20%的运输量都要经过这里。如今,通过该海峡的油轮已锐减至寥寥无几。尽管沙特阿拉伯已将部分供应通过现有管道改道至其他出口终端,但包括Rapidan Energy Group在内的分析师表示,每日仍有1,000万桶或更多的石油供应受阻。 油轮面临的威胁以及主要生产设施的关闭,可能会让此次冲突对石油和天然气市场的影响持续到冲突结束之后很长一段时间。这次的情况与以往的冲击有所不同:在霍尔木兹海峡实际上被关闭的情况下,沙特阿拉伯和其他主要原油出口国利用闲置产能的能力有限。以往一些冲击曾持续数月甚至更长时间。 油价飙升幅度与以往冲突时期相符 自今年年初以来,全球基准石油期货价格已飙升约80%,即便此前有关华盛顿与伊朗进行谈判的报道曾引发大幅抛售。最近几周无人机和导弹开始交火以来的价格涨势,与1990年海湾战争爆发后的情况相符。 在2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰之前,油价要高得多,当时全球经济正从疫情中迅速复苏。尽管当年预期的原油供应中断大部分并未成为现实,但油价仍连续数月保持高位。 股市抛售潮可能更为严重 尽管市场抛售看似猛烈,但其程度与以往地缘政治冲击后的市场反应相当。在当前这场战争爆发前,由于担心人工智能(AI)可能颠覆软件、金融服务等行业,标普500指数就已回落。投资者表示,美股的高估值加剧了此后的部分波动。 在俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰后的相同时点,该大盘指数与冲突爆发之初基本持平。但那次冲击加剧了通货膨胀,最终损害了企业盈利,推高了借贷成本,并导致该指数在2022年上半年回调了21%。 美债收益率重演2022年式攀升 在2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰之前,美联储正试图在疫情后重启经济,当时的收益率处于低位。而这一次,利率前景不明意味着收益率本就处于高位。此后,收益率进一步攀升至7月份以来的最高水平。 在1990年伊拉克入侵科威特后,10年期美国国债收益率的攀升速度更快,当时美国对能源的依赖程度要高得多。 史上罕见的石油储备...

美国对哈尔克岛的进攻可能会如何展开?

 FT: 美军乘坐倾转旋翼机和直升机低空接近哈尔格岛。着陆后,他们迅速分散开来,覆盖了这座重要的石油出口枢纽,全程都在伊朗的炮火下进行。 为了寻求掩护,美军紧贴岛上的石油基础设施作战,这让伊朗政权面临一个非同寻常的困境:是摧毁石油设施以控制这些设施?还是按兵不动,让华盛顿控制该国的经济命脉? 未来几周,随着美国权衡是否要占领哈尔克岛(伊朗90%的石油都从那里装载到油轮上),这种情况可能会再次发生。 本周,唐纳德·特朗普总统表示,他希望与伊朗达成协议,结束敌对行动。但是,由于数千名美国海军陆战队员正在赶往该地区,伞兵也即将部署,如果战争升级,华盛顿正在考虑夺取哈尔克岛,以此来对伊朗政权施加压力。 这样的举动将使美国控制伊朗几乎所有的石油出口,使华盛顿能够在不摧毁该设施的情况下切断其收入来源,并可能引发全球石油市场的混乱。 这将使美国在迫使伊朗重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的任何努力中拥有谈判筹码,其他选项包括占领海峡中的战略岛屿,以控制该水道。 无论如何,向伊朗派遣地面部队都将是一次巨大的局势升级,这将使美军面临伤亡风险,并可能将他们拖入一场无休止的冲突。 “派遣地面部队显然对我们自己的部队来说风险更大,”美国中央司令部前情报主管凯伦·吉布森说道。中央司令部负责监督美国在中东的军事行动。她表示,虽然美国有能力通过军事手段夺取该岛,但真正的挑战“不仅仅是占领该岛……而是如何持续对其施加压力”。 她补充说,目前打击伊朗本土的大部分作战力量可以转而用于支援该行动,因为保护这些部队已成为美军的首要任务。 支持美国对伊朗采取更强硬军事行动的人士呼吁特朗普夺取哈尔格港,共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆表示,如果伊朗政权失去石油出口,就会“自取灭亡”。 五角大楼正在权衡各种方案,准备 从陆军精锐伞兵师——第82空降师——部署 数千名士兵。他们的部署速度预计在18小时内完成。 美国海军还将向该地区派遣两支海军陆战队远征部队(MEU),每支部队约有2200名海军陆战队员。其中一支,即第31海军陆战队远征部队,正从日本搭乘“的黎波里”号两栖攻击舰(一艘专为空中作战而优化的两栖攻击舰)前往该地区,预计将于本周末抵达。 国防部还命令由 “拳师”号两栖攻击舰(搭载来自加利福尼亚州的第11海军陆战队远征部队)领衔的三艘舰艇组成的“拳师”号两栖戒备群 前往该地区。预计需要三到四周才能抵达。 每个海军陆战队...

WSJ:私募信贷行业是否潜藏着另一场金融危机?

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付鹏11月24日在HSBC内部演讲速记

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