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巴菲特致股东的最后一封信(感恩节言)

**伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司**

**新闻稿**

**即时发布 - 2025年11月10日**

内布拉斯加州奥马哈市(股票代码:BRK.A; BRK.B)–

今日,沃伦·E·巴菲特将其持有的1,800股A类股转换为2,700,000股B类股,目的是将这些B类股捐赠给四个家族基金会:其中1,500,000股捐赠给苏珊·汤普森·巴菲特基金会,其余三个基金会——舍伍德基金会、霍华德·G·巴菲特基金会和NoVo基金会——各获得400,000股。这些捐赠已于今日完成。


巴菲特先生致其各位股东的评论如下:

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致我的各位股东:


我将不再撰写伯克希尔的年度报告,也不再在年度股东大会上无休止地讲话。用英国人的话说,我要"保持安静"了。


算是吧。


格雷格·阿贝尔将在年底成为公司的负责人。他是一位杰出的管理者,一个不知疲倦的工作者,也是一位诚实的沟通者。祝愿他任期长久。


我将通过每年发布的感恩节致辞,继续与你们以及我的孩子们交流关于伯克希尔的事情。伯克希尔的个人股东是一个非常特殊的群体,他们异常慷慨地愿意与那些不那么幸运的人分享他们的收益。我很珍惜能与你们保持联系的机会。今年请容许我先回忆一些往事。之后,我将讨论我持有的伯克希尔股份的分配计划。最后,我会分享一些商业和个人方面的观察与思考。


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随着感恩节临近,我满怀感激且惊讶于自己在95岁高龄依然健在的运气。

在我年轻的时候,这个结果看起来可不像是个好赌注。早年,我曾险些丧命。


那是在1938年,当时的奥马哈市民将医院视为要么是天主教的,要么是新教的,这种分类在当时似乎很自然。


我们的家庭医生哈雷·霍茨是一位友善的天主教徒,他常常拎着一个黑色医疗包出诊。霍茨医生叫我"小船长",而且看诊收费从不昂贵。1938年,当我经历严重的腹痛时,霍茨医生来了,在稍作检查后,告诉我早上就会好的。然后他就回家吃晚饭,打了一会儿桥牌。然而,他无法将我那些有点特别的症状从脑海中驱散,于是在那天深夜,他安排我去了圣凯瑟琳医院进行紧急阑尾切除手术。在接下来的三周里,我感觉自己仿佛置身于一座女修道院,并开始享受我的新"讲台"。我喜欢说话——是的,即使在那时——修女们也很接纳我。


最棒的是,我的三年级老师马德森小姐让我班上的30名同学每人给我写一封信。我可能把男孩们的信都扔掉了,但女孩们的信却读了一遍又一遍;住院也有它的好处。


我康复过程中最精彩的部分——实际上在第一周的大部分时间里情况都很危险——是我亲爱的伊迪阿姨送的一份礼物。她给我带来了一套看起来非常专业的指纹采集工具,我立刻为我所有照顾我的修女采集了指纹。(我可能是他们在圣凯瑟琳医院见到的第一个新教男孩,她们不知道会发生什么。)


我的理论——当然是完全荒谬的——是总有一天会有一个修女变坏,而联邦调查局(FBI)会发现他们忽略了给修女们采集指纹。FBI及其局长J·埃德加·胡佛在1930年代深受美国人敬仰,我幻想着胡佛先生本人会来到奥马哈,检查我这份无比珍贵的收藏。我进一步幻想,我和J·埃德加会迅速识别并逮捕那个任性的修女。全国性的名声似乎唾手可得。


显然,我的幻想从未实现。但具有讽刺意味的是,几年后情况变得很清楚,我本应该给J·埃德加本人采集指纹,因为他后来因滥用职权而身败名裂。


嗯,那就是1930年代的奥马哈,一个雪橇、一辆自行车、一个棒球手套和一列电动火车让我和我的朋友们梦寐以求的时代。让我们看看那个时代另外几个在附近长大、极大地影响了我的人生,但我却长久以来未曾意识到的孩子。


我从查理·芒格开始,他是我64年来最好的朋友。在1930年代,查理住的地方离我自1958年起拥有并居住的房子只隔一个街区。


早年,我差一点就结识了查理。查理比我大6又2/3岁,在1940年夏天,他在我祖父的杂货店工作,每天工作10小时,挣2美元。(节俭深深流淌在巴菲特家族的血液中。)第二年,我也在店里做了类似的工作,但我直到1959年才遇见查理,那时他35岁,我28岁。


在二战服役后,查理从哈佛法学院毕业,然后永久搬到了加利福尼亚。然而,查理总是谈论他在奥马哈的早年时光是塑造性格的关键时期。60多年来,查理对我产生了巨大的影响,他是一位再好不过的老师和保护我的"大哥"。我们有过分歧,但从未争吵过。"我早就告诉过你"这句话不在他的词汇表里。


1958年,我购买了我第一处也是唯一一处住宅。当然,它在奥马哈,离我长大的地方(粗略定义)大约两英里,离我岳父母家不到两个街区,离巴菲特杂货店大约六个街区,离我工作了64年的办公楼有6-7分钟车程。


让我们谈谈另一位奥马哈人,斯坦·利普西。斯坦在1968年将他经营的《奥马哈太阳报》(周报)卖给了伯克希尔,十年后应我的要求搬到了布法罗。当时,伯克希尔的一家子公司拥有的《布法罗晚报》正与其早间竞争对手进行一场生死之战,后者出版布法罗唯一的周日报纸。而我们正在输掉这场竞争。


斯坦最终为我们打造了新的周日版产品,有几年,我们的报纸——以前严重亏损——在我们3300万美元的投资上,每年获得了超过100%(税前)的回报。这在1980年代初对伯克希尔来说是一笔重要的资金。


斯坦在离我家大约五个街区的地方长大。斯坦的一位邻居是小沃尔特·斯科特。你们会记得,沃尔特在1999年将中美能源公司带到了伯克希尔。他直到2021年去世前,一直是一位宝贵的伯克希尔董事,也是一位非常亲密的朋友。沃尔特是内布拉斯加州几十年来慈善事业的领导者,奥马哈和整个州都留下了他的印记。


沃尔特就读于本森高中,我原本也计划去那里上学——直到1942年我父亲在国会竞选中击败了一位连任四届的在职议员,让所有人都大吃一惊。生活充满了意外。


等等,还有更多。


1959年,唐·基奥和他的年轻家人住在与我家直接隔街相望的一所房子里,距离芒格家曾经住的地方大约100码。唐当时是一名咖啡推销员,但命中注定将成为可口可乐公司的总裁,并且成为伯克希尔忠诚的董事。


当我遇到唐时,他年收入12,000美元,而他和他的妻子米琪正在抚养五个孩子,所有这些孩子都注定要上天主教学校(需要支付学费)。


我们两家很快成了亲密的朋友。唐来自爱荷华州西北部的一个农场,毕业于奥马哈的克瑞顿大学。早年,他娶了奥马哈姑娘米琪。加入可口可乐公司后,唐后来在全球范围内成为了传奇人物。


1985年,当唐担任可口可乐公司总裁时,公司推出了命运多舛的"新可乐"。唐发表了一次著名的演讲,向公众道歉并恢复了"经典"可乐。这一转变发生在唐解释说,寄给"头号白痴"的可口可乐公司来信被迅速送到他的办公桌之后。他的"撤回"演讲堪称经典,可以在YouTube上观看。他愉快地承认,实际上,可口可乐产品属于公众,而不是公司。随后销量猛增。


你可以在CharlieRose.com上观看唐的一次精彩采访。(汤姆·墨菲和凯·格雷厄姆也有几个很棒的采访。)像查理·芒格一样,唐永远是一个中西部男孩,热情、友好,骨子里是美国人。


最后,在印度出生和长大的阿吉特·贾因,以及我们即将上任的加拿大籍CEO格雷格·阿贝尔,各自在20世纪末在奥马哈居住了几年。事实上,在1990年代,格雷格住在法纳姆大街,离我只有几个街区远,尽管我们当时从未见过面。


难道奥马哈的水里有什么神奇的成分吗?


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我在华盛顿特区度过了一些青少年时光(当时我父亲在国会),1954年,我在曼哈顿找到了一份我当时以为会是永久的工作。在那里,本·格雷厄姆和杰里·纽曼待我非常好,我也结交了许多终身朋友。纽约拥有独特的资产——现在依然如此。然而,在1956年,仅仅一年半之后,我回到了奥马哈,再也没有离开过。


后来,我的三个孩子以及几个孙辈都在奥马哈长大。我的孩子们一直上公立学校(毕业于同一所高中,那所高中也曾培养了我的父亲(1921届)、我的第一任妻子苏茜(1950届),还有查理、斯坦·利普西、欧文和罗恩·布鲁姆金(他们对内布拉斯加家具城的成长至关重要),以及杰克·林瓦尔特(1923届,他创立了国民赔偿公司并于1967年将其卖给伯克希尔,这成为我们庞大的财产/意外险业务的基础)。


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我们国家有许多伟大的公司、伟大的学校、伟大的医疗设施,每个地方肯定都有其特殊的优势和人才。但我感到非常幸运,有幸结交了许多终身朋友,遇到了我的两任妻子,在公立学校接受了良好的启蒙教育,在我很小的时候遇到了许多有趣且友善的成年奥马哈人,并在内布拉斯加州国民警卫队结交了各种各样的朋友。简而言之,内布拉斯加就是家。


回首往事,我觉得伯克希尔和我本人都因为扎根于奥马哈而比我住在任何其他地方都做得更好。美国中部是一个非常适宜出生、养家和发展事业的地方。由于纯粹的运气,我在出生时抽到了一根长得离谱的好签。


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现在让我们谈谈我的高龄。我的基因并没有特别大的帮助——家族有史以来(诚然,年代越久远记录越模糊)的长寿纪录是92岁,直到我的出现。但我有 wise、友好且 dedicated 的奥马哈医生们,从哈雷·霍茨开始,一直持续到今天。至少有三次,我的生命得以挽救,每次都是由距离我家几英里内的医生完成的。(不过,我已经放弃给护士采集指纹了。在95岁高龄,你可以有很多怪癖……但总有限度。)


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那些活到老年的人需要大量的好运,每天都要避开香蕉皮、自然灾害、醉酒或分心的司机、雷击,你能想到的一切。


但幸运女神是变幻无常的,而且——没有别的词更合适——极度不公平。在许多情况下,我们的领导人和富人获得的运气远远超过了他们应得的份额——而受益者往往不愿承认这一点。世袭继承者在离开母体的那一刻就实现了终身的财务独立,而另一些人则在他们早年生活中面临困境,或者更糟的是,身患使他们丧失我所认为理所当然的能力的身体或精神疾病。在世界上许多人口稠密的地区,我很可能会过着悲惨的生活,而我的姐妹们处境会更糟。


我出生于1930年,健康、智力尚可、白人、男性,并且在美国。哇!谢谢你,幸运女神。我的姐妹们拥有同等的智力,个性也比我好,但却面临着截然不同的前景。在我生命的大部分时间里,幸运女神持续眷顾,但她有比与90多岁老人打交道更重要的事情要做。运气有其限度。


相反,时间老人发现随着我年事渐高,我变得更有趣了。而且他是不可战胜的;对他来说,每个人最终都会出现在他的记分牌上,记为"胜利"。当平衡感、视力、听力和记忆力都持续走下坡路时,你就知道时间老人就在附近。


我变老得比较晚——每个人的衰老起始时间差异很大——但一旦出现,就无法否认。


令我惊讶的是,我总体感觉良好。虽然我行动缓慢,阅读越来越困难,但我每周五天都在办公室,与优秀的人们一起工作。偶尔,我会想到一个有用的主意,或者收到一个我们原本可能收不到的报价。由于伯克希尔的规模和市场水平,好主意很少——但并非没有。


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然而,我意想不到的长寿对我的家庭和实现我的慈善目标产生了不可避免的重大影响。


让我们探讨一下。


**接下来是什么**


我的孩子们都已超过了正常的退休年龄,分别达到了72岁、70岁和67岁。押注他们三个——现在在许多方面都处于巅峰状态——都会享有我这种延迟衰老的特殊运气,将是一个错误。为了提高他们在继任受托人接替之前能够处置基本上是我的全部遗产的概率,我需要加快向他们三个基金会进行生前捐赠的步伐。我的孩子们现在在经验和智慧方面正值黄金时期,但尚未进入老年。这个"蜜月"期不会永远持续。


幸运的是,调整路线很容易执行。然而,还有一个额外的因素需要考虑:我希望保留相当数量的"A"类股份,直到伯克希尔的股东们对格雷格建立起像查理和我长期以来所享有的那种信任。这种信任水平不应该需要太长时间。我的孩子们以及伯克希尔的董事们都已经百分百支持格雷格。


所有三个孩子现在都具备了成熟、头脑、精力和本能来管理分配一大笔财富。他们还有一个优势,就是在我离世很久之后他们依然在世,并且如果需要,可以采取预见性和反应性的策略来应对联邦税收政策或其他影响慈善事业的事态发展。他们很可能需要适应周围显著变化的世界。来自坟墓的指令记录不佳,我从未有过这样做的冲动。


幸运的是,所有三个孩子都从他们母亲那里继承了主导性的基因。随着几十年的过去,我也成为了他们思维和行为更好的榜样。然而,我永远无法达到他们母亲的水平。


我的孩子们有三名候补受托人,以防任何过早死亡或丧失行为能力的情况。候补受托人没有排名,也不与特定的孩子绑定。这三个人都是杰出的人,并且深谙世故。他们没有动机冲突。


我向我的孩子们保证,他们不需要创造奇迹,也不必害怕失败或失望。这些都是不可避免的,我也犯过不少错误。他们只需要比政府活动和/或私人慈善机构通常达到的效果稍好一些,同时认识到这些其他财富再分配方式也有其缺点。


早些时候,我曾考虑过各种宏大的慈善计划。尽管我很固执,但这些计划被证明不可行。在我多年的生涯中,我也目睹了政治投机分子、世袭选择,以及是的,无能或古怪的慈善家们所进行的考虑不周的财富转移。


如果我的孩子们只是做得体面,他们可以确信,他们的母亲和我会感到欣慰。他们的本能很好,他们每个人都经过了多年的实践,最初是非常小的金额,后来不定期地增加到每年超过5亿美元。


所有三人都喜欢长时间工作,以各自的方式帮助他人。


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我加快向孩子们基金会的生前捐赠,绝不反映我对伯克希尔前景的看法有任何改变。格雷格·阿贝尔已经完全超出了我最初认为他应该成为伯克希尔下一任CEO时对他的高期望。他对我们许多业务和人员的理解远胜于我,而且他在许多CEO甚至不考虑的事情上学习速度非常快。我找不到任何一个CEO、管理顾问、学者、政府成员——随便你说——能让我选择代替格雷格来管理你和我的储蓄。


例如,格雷格对我们财产/意外险业务的潜在优势和风险的理解,比许多长期的财产/意外险高管都要深刻。我希望他的健康能维持几十年。只要有一点运气,伯克希尔在下个世纪应该只需要五到六位CEO。它尤其应该避免那些目标是65岁退休、追求引人注目的财富或开创王朝的人。


一个不愉快的现实:偶尔,母公司或子公司的一位出色且忠诚的CEO会患上痴呆症、阿尔茨海默病或其他使人衰弱且长期的疾病。查理和我遇到过几次这个问题,但未能采取行动。这种失误可能是一个巨大的错误。董事会必须对CEO层面的这种可能性保持警惕,CEO也必须对子公司层面的可能性保持警惕。这说起来容易做起来难;我可以举出过去一些大公司的例子。董事们应该保持警惕并直言不讳,这是我唯一能给出的建议。


在我有生之年,改革者试图通过要求披露老板的薪酬与普通员工的平均薪酬之比来让CEO们难堪。委托书说明书迅速膨胀到100多页,而早些时候只有20页或更少。


但良好的意图并未奏效;反而适得其反。根据我的大多数观察——"A"公司的CEO看着他在"B"公司的竞争对手,并微妙地向他的董事会传达他应该值得更多。当然,他也提高了董事的薪酬,并且谨慎地选择薪酬委员会的人选。新规则产生了嫉妒,而不是节制。


这种攀比行为自行发展,愈演愈烈。通常困扰非常富有的CEO们的是——他们毕竟也是人——其他CEO变得更富有了。嫉妒和贪婪携手同行。又有哪个顾问曾建议过大幅削减CEO的薪酬或董事的报酬呢?


* * * * * * * * * * * *

总体而言,伯克希尔的业务前景略优于平均水平,由少数几个不相关且规模可观的瑰宝业务引领。然而,一二十年后,将会有许多公司比伯克希尔做得更好;我们的规模带来了负担。


伯克希尔发生毁灭性灾难的可能性比我已知的任何企业都要小。而且,伯克希尔拥有比我熟悉的几乎任何公司(而我见过很多)都更具股东意识的管理层和董事会。最后,伯克希尔将始终以使其存在成为美国一项资产的方式管理,并避免可能导致其成为乞求者的活动。随着时间的推移,我们的经理们应该会变得相当富有——他们肩负着重要的责任——但他们没有追求世袭或引人注目财富的欲望。


我们的股价会反复无常地波动,偶尔会下跌50%左右,就像在当前管理层下的60年里发生过三次那样。不要绝望;美国会复苏,伯克希尔的股票也会。


**最后几点想法**


也许有一点自我服务的观察。我很高兴地说,我对后半生的感觉比前半生更好。我的建议是:不要为过去的错误过分自责——至少从中吸取一点教训,然后继续前进。改进永远不晚。找到正确的英雄并效仿他们。你可以从汤姆·墨菲开始;他是最棒的。


记住阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔,后来以诺贝尔奖闻名,据说——他读到了自己的讣告,那是在他兄弟去世时报纸搞错了误印的。他对他所读到的内容感到震惊,并意识到他应该改变自己的行为。


不要指望新闻编辑室的混乱:决定你希望你的讣告说些什么,然后过一种值得这样评价的生活。


伟大不是通过积累巨额金钱、大量公众关注或政府中的巨大权力来实现的。当你以成千上万种方式中的任何一种帮助某人时,你就是在帮助世界。善良无需成本,但也无价。无论你是否信仰宗教,作为行为指南,"黄金法则"都很难被超越。


我写这些,是作为一个曾无数次考虑不周、犯过许多错误,但也非常幸运地从一些优秀的朋友那里学会了如何更好地行事(然而,离完美还有很长的路)的人。请记住,清洁工和董事长一样都是人。


* * * * * * * * * * * *

我祝愿所有读到这篇文章的人感恩节非常快乐。是的,即使是那些混蛋;改变永远不晚。记得感谢美国最大限度地提供了你的机会。但它在分配其奖赏时——不可避免地——反复无常,有时甚至腐败。


非常仔细地选择你的英雄,然后效仿他们。你永远不会完美,但你总能变得更好。


**关于伯克希尔**


伯克希尔·哈撒韦及其子公司从事多样化的业务活动,包括保险和再保险、公用事业和能源、货运铁路运输、制造、服务和零售。公司普通股在纽约证券交易所上市,交易代码为BRK.A和BRK.B。


– 结束 –


**联系方式**

马克·D·汉堡

402-346-1400



BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

NEWS RELEASE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 10, 2025

Omaha, NE (BRK.A; BRK.B) –

Today, Warren E. Buffett converted 1,800 A shares into 2,700,000 B shares in order to give these B

shares to four family foundations: 1,500,000 shares to The Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation and

400,000 shares to each of The Sherwood Foundation, The Howard G. Buffett Foundation and NoVo

Foundation. These donations have been delivered today.

Mr. Buffett’s comments to his fellow shareholders follow:

* * * * * * * * * * * *

To My Fellow Shareholders:

I will no longer be writing Berkshire’s annual report or talking endlessly at the annual

meeting. As the British would say, I’m “going quiet.”

Sort of.

Greg Abel will become the boss at yearend. He is a great manager, a tireless worker and an

honest communicator. Wish him an extended tenure.

I will continue talking to you and my children about Berkshire via my annual Thanksgiving

message. Berkshire’s individual shareholders are a very special group who are unusually generous in

sharing their gains with others less fortunate. I enjoy the chance to keep in touch with you. Indulge

me this year as I first reminisce a bit. After that, I will discuss the plans for distribution of my

Berkshire shares. Finally, I will offer a few business and personal observations.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

As Thanksgiving approaches, I’m grateful and surprised by my luck in being alive at 95.

When I was young, this outcome did not look like a good bet. Early on, I nearly died.

It was 1938 and Omaha hospitals were then thought of by its citizens as either Catholic or

Protestant, a classification that seemed natural at the time.

Our family doctor, Harley Hotz, was a friendly Catholic who made house calls toting a black

bag. Dr. Hotz called me Skipper and never charged much for his visits. When I experienced a bad

bellyache in 1938, Dr. Hotz came by and, after probing a bit, told me I would be OK in the morning.

He then went home, had dinner and played a little bridge. Dr. Hotz couldn’t, however, get my

somewhat peculiar symptoms out of his mind and later that night he dispatched me to St. Catherine’s

Hospital for an emergency appendectomy. During the next three weeks, I felt like I was in a nunnery,

and began enjoying my new “podium.” I liked to talk – yes, even then – and the nuns embraced me.

To top things off, Miss Madsen, my third-grade teacher, told my 30 classmates to each write

me a letter. I probably threw away the letters from the boys but read and reread those from the girls;

hospitalization had its rewards.

The highlight of my recovery – which actually was dicey for much of the first week – was a

gift from my wonderful Aunt Edie. She brought me a very professional-looking fingerprinting set,

and I promptly fingerprinted all of my attending nuns. (I was probably the first Protestant kid they

had seen at St. Catherine’s and they didn’t know what to expect.)

My theory – totally nutty, of course – was that someday a nun would go bad and the FBI

would find that they had neglected to fingerprint nuns. The FBI and its director, J. Edgar Hoover, had

become revered by Americans in the 1930s, and I envisioned Mr. Hoover, himself, coming to Omaha

to inspect my invaluable collection. I further fantasized that J. Edgar and I would quickly identify

and apprehend the wayward nun. National fame seemed certain.

Obviously, my fantasy never materialized. But, ironically, some years later it became clear

that I should have fingerprinted J. Edgar himself as he became disgraced for misusing his post.

Well, that was Omaha in the 1930s, when a sled, a bicycle, a baseball glove and an electric

train were coveted by me and my friends. Let’s look at a few other kids from that era, who grew up

very nearby and greatly influenced my life but of whom I was for long unaware.

I’ll begin with Charlie Munger, my best pal for 64 years. In the 1930s, Charlie lived a block

away from the house I have owned and occupied since 1958.

Early on, I missed befriending Charlie by a whisker. Charlie, 6 ⅔ years older than I, worked

in the summer of 1940 at my grandfather’s grocery store, earning $2 for a 10-hour day. (Thrift runs

deep in Buffett blood.) The following year I did similar work at the store, but I never met Charlie

until 1959 when he was 35 and I was 28.

After serving in World War II, Charlie graduated from Harvard Law and then moved

permanently to California. Charlie, however, forever talked of his early years in Omaha as formative.

For more than 60 years, Charlie had a huge impact on me and could not have been a better teacher

and protective “big brother.” We had differences but never had an argument. “I told you so” was not

in his vocabulary.

In 1958, I bought my first and only home. Of course, it was in Omaha, located about two

miles from where I grew up (loosely defined), less than two blocks from my in-laws, about six blocks

from the Buffett grocery store and a 6-7-minute drive from the office building where I have worked

for 64 years.

Let’s move on to another Omahan, Stan Lipsey. Stan sold the Omaha Sun Newspapers

(weeklies) to Berkshire in 1968 and a decade later moved to Buffalo at my request. The Buffalo

Evening News, owned by a Berkshire affiliate, was then locked in a battle to the death with its

morning competitor who published Buffalo’s only Sunday paper. And we were losing.

Stan eventually built our new Sunday product, and for some years our paper – formerly

hemorrhaging cash – earned over 100% annually (pre-tax) on our $33 million investment. This was

important money to Berkshire in the early 1980s.

Stan grew up about five blocks from my home. One of Stan’s neighbors was Walter Scott, Jr.

Walter, you will remember, brought MidAmerican Energy to Berkshire in 1999. He was also a valued

Berkshire director until his death in 2021 and a very close friend. Walter was Nebraska’s

philanthropic leader for decades and both Omaha and the state carries his imprint.

Walter attended Benson High School, which I was scheduled to attend as well – until my dad

surprised everyone in 1942 by beating a four-term incumbent in a Congressional race. Life is full of

surprises.

Wait, there’s more.

In 1959, Don Keough and his young family lived in a home located directly across the street

from my house and about 100 yards away from where the Munger family had lived. Don was then a

coffee salesman but was destined to become president of Coca-Cola as well as a devoted director of

Berkshire.

When I met Don, he was earning $12,000 a year while he and his wife Mickie were raising

five children, all destined for Catholic schools (with tuition requirements).

Our families became fast friends. Don came from a farm in northwest Iowa and graduated

from Omaha’s Creighton University. Early on, he married Mickie, an Omaha girl. After joining Coke,

Don went on to become legendary around the globe.

In 1985, when Don was president of Coke, the company launched its ill-fated New Coke.

Don made a famous speech in which he apologized to the public and reinstated “Old” Coke. This

change of heart took place after Don explained that Coke incoming mail addressed to “Supreme

Idiot” was promptly delivered to his desk. His “withdrawal” speech is a classic and can be viewed on

YouTube. He cheerfully acknowledged that, in truth, the Coca-Cola product belonged to the public

and not to the company. Sales subsequently soared.

You can watch Don on CharlieRose.com in a wonderful interview. (Tom Murphy and Kay

Graham have a couple of gems as well.) Like Charlie Munger, Don forever remained a Midwestern

boy, enthusiastic, friendly and American to the core.

Finally, Ajit Jain, born and raised in India, as well as Greg Abel, our Canadian CEO-to-be,

each lived in Omaha for several years late in the 20th Century. Indeed, in the 1990s, Greg lived only a

few blocks away from me on Farnam Street, though we never met at the time.

Can it be that there is some magic ingredient in Omaha’s water?

* * * * * * * * * * * *

I lived a few teenage years in Washington, DC (when my dad was in Congress) and in 1954 I

took what I thought would be a permanent job in Manhattan. There I was treated wonderfully by Ben

Graham and Jerry Newman and made many life-long friends. New York had unique assets – and still

does. Nevertheless, in 1956, after only 1½ years, I returned to Omaha, never to wander again.

Subsequently, my three children, as well as several grandchildren, were raised in Omaha. My

children always attended public schools (graduating from the same high school that educated my dad

(class of 1921), my first wife, Susie (class of 1950) as well as Charlie, Stan Lipsey, Irv and Ron

Blumkin, who were key to growing Nebraska Furniture Mart, and Jack Ringwalt (class of 1923),

who founded National Indemnity and sold it to Berkshire in 1967 where it became the base upon

which our huge P/C operation was constructed.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Our country has many great companies, great schools, great medical facilities and each

definitely has its own special advantages along with talented people. But I feel very lucky to have

had the good fortune to make many lifelong friends, to meet both of my wives, to receive a great start

in education at public schools, to meet many interesting and friendly adult Omahans when I was very

young, and to make a wide variety of friends in the Nebraska National Guard. In short, Nebraska has

been home.

Looking back I feel that both Berkshire and I did better because of our base in Omaha than if

I had resided anywhere else. The center of the United States was a very good place to be born, to

raise a family, and to build a business. Through dumb luck, I drew a ridiculously long straw at birth.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Now let’s move on to my advanced age. My genes haven’t been particularly helpful – the

family’s all-time record for longevity (admittedly family records get fuzzy as you work backwards)

was 92 until I came along. But I have had wise, friendly and dedicated Omaha doctors, starting with

Harley Hotz, and continuing to this day. At least three times, my life has been saved, each with

doctors based within a few miles from my home. (I have given up fingerprinting nurses, however.

You can get away with many eccentricities at 95 . . . . . but there are limits.)

* * * * * * * * * * * *

Those who reach old age need a huge dose of good luck, daily escaping banana peels, natural

disasters, drunk or distracted drivers, lightning strikes, you name it.

But Lady Luck is fickle and – no other term fits – wildly unfair. In many cases, our leaders

and the rich have received far more than their share of luck – which, too often, the recipients prefer

not to acknowledge. Dynastic inheritors have achieved lifetime financial independence the moment

they emerged from the womb, while others have arrived, facing a hell-hole during their early life or,

worse, disabling physical or mental infirmities that rob them of what I have taken for granted. In

many heavily-populated parts of the world, I would likely have had a miserable life and my sisters

would have had one even worse.

I was born in 1930 healthy, reasonably intelligent, white, male and in America. Wow! Thank

you, Lady Luck. My sisters had equal intelligence and better personalities than I but faced a much

different outlook. Lady Luck continued to drop by during much of my life, but she has better things

to do than work with those in their 90s. Luck has its limits.

Father Time, to the contrary, now finds me more interesting as I age. And he is undefeated;

for him, everyone ends up on his score card as “wins.” When balance, sight, hearing and memory are

all on a persistently downward slope, you know Father Time is in the neighborhood.

I was late in becoming old – its onset materially varies – but once it appears, it is not to be

denied.

To my surprise, I generally feel good. Though I move slowly and read with increasing

difficulty, I am at the office five days a week where I work with wonderful people. Occasionally, I

get a useful idea or am approached with an offer we might not otherwise have received. Because of

Berkshire’s size and because of market levels, ideas are few – but not zero.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

My unexpected longevity, however, has unavoidable consequences of major importance to my

family and the achievement of my charitable objectives.

Let’s explore them.

What Comes Next

My children are all above normal retirement age, having reached 72, 70 and 67. It would be a

mistake to wager that all three – now at their peak in many respects – will enjoy my exceptional luck

in delayed aging. To improve the probability that they will dispose of what will essentially be my

entire estate before alternate trustees replace them, I need to step up the pace of lifetime gifts to their

three foundations. My children are now at their prime in respect to experience and wisdom but have

yet to enter old age. That “honeymoon” period will not last forever.

Fortunately, a course correction is easy to execute. There is, however, one additional factor to

consider: I would like to keep a significant amount of “A” shares until Berkshire shareholders

develop the comfort with Greg that Charlie and I long enjoyed. That level of confidence shouldn’t

take long. My children are already 100% behind Greg as are the Berkshire directors.

All three children now have the maturity, brains, energy and instincts to disburse a large

fortune. They will also have the advantage of being above ground when I am long gone and, if

necessary, can adopt policies both anticipatory and reactive to federal tax policies or other

developments affecting philanthropy. They may well need to adapt to a significantly changing world

around them. Ruling from the grave does not have a great record, and I have never had an urge to do

so.

Fortunately, all three children received a dominant dosage of their genes from their mother.

As the decades have passed, I have also become a better model for their thinking and behavior. I will

never, however, achieve parity with their mother.

My children have three alternate trustees in case of any premature deaths or disabilities. The

alternates are not ranked or tied to a specific child. All three are exceptional humans and wise in the

ways of the world. They have no conflicting motives.

I have assured my children that they do not need to perform miracles nor fear failures or

disappointments. These are inevitable, and I have made my share. They simply need to improve

somewhat upon what generally is achieved by government activities and/or private philanthropy,

recognizing these other methods of redistribution of wealth have shortcomings as well.

Early on, I contemplated various grand philanthropic plans. Though I was stubborn, these did

not prove feasible. During my many years, I’ve also watched ill-conceived wealth transfers by

political hacks, dynastic choices and, yes, inept or quirky philanthropists.

If my children simply do a decent job, they can be certain that their mother and I would be

pleased. Their instincts are good and they each have had years of practice with very small sums

initially that have been irregularly increased to more than $500 million annually.

All three like working long hours to help others, each in their own way.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

The acceleration of my lifetime gifts to my children’s foundations in no way reflects any

change in my views about Berkshire’s prospects. Greg Abel has more than met the high expectations

I had for him when I first thought he should be Berkshire’s next CEO. He understands many of our

businesses and personnel far better than I now do, and he is a very fast learner about matters many

CEOs don’t even consider. I can’t think of a CEO, a management consultant, an academic, a member

of government – you name it – that I would select over Greg to handle your savings and mine.

Greg understands, for example, far more about both the upside potential and the dangers of

our P/C insurance business than do a great many long-time P/C executives. My hope is that his health

remains good for several decades. With a little luck, Berkshire should require only five or six CEOs

over the next century. It should particularly avoid those whose goal is to retire at 65, to become lookat-

me rich or to initiate a dynasty.

One unpleasant reality: Occasionally, a wonderful and loyal CEO of the parent or a

subsidiary will succumb to dementia, Alzheimer’s or another debilitating and long-term disease.

Charlie and I encountered this problem several times and failed to act. This failure can be a

huge mistake. The Board must be alert to this possibility at the CEO level and the CEO must be alert

to the possibility at subsidiaries. This is easier said than done; I could cite a few examples from the

past at major companies. Directors should be alert and speak up is all that I can advise.

During my lifetime, reformers sought to embarrass CEOs by requiring the disclosure of the

compensation of the boss compared to what was being paid to the average employee. Proxy

statements promptly ballooned to 100-plus pages compared to 20 or less earlier.

But the good intentions didn’t work; instead they backfired. Based on the majority of my

observations – the CEO of company “A” looked at his competitor at company “B” and subtly

conveyed to his board that he should be worth more. Of course, he also boosted the pay of directors

and was careful who he placed on the compensation committee. The new rules produced envy, not

moderation.

The ratcheting took on a life of its own. What often bothers very wealthy CEOs – they are

human, after all – is that other CEOs are getting even richer. Envy and greed walk hand in hand. And

what consultant ever recommended a serious cut in CEO compensation or board payments?

* * * * * * * * * * * *

In aggregate, Berkshire’s businesses have moderately better-than-average prospects, led by a

few non-correlated and sizable gems. However, a decade or two from now, there will be many

companies that have done better than Berkshire; our size takes its toll.

Berkshire has less chance of a devastating disaster than any business I know. And, Berkshire

has a more shareholder-conscious management and board than almost any company with which I am

familiar (and I’ve seen a lot). Finally, Berkshire will always be managed in a manner that will make

its existence an asset to the United States and eschew activities that would lead it to become a

supplicant. Over time, our managers should grow quite wealthy – they have important

responsibilities – but do not have the desire for dynastic or look-at-me wealth.

Our stock price will move capriciously, occasionally falling 50% or so as has happened three

times in 60 years under present management. Don’t despair; America will come back and so will

Berkshire shares.

A Few Final Thoughts

One perhaps self-serving observation. I’m happy to say I feel better about the second half of

my life than the first. My advice: Don’t beat yourself up over past mistakes – learn at least a little

from them and move on. It is never too late to improve. Get the right heroes and copy them. You can

start with Tom Murphy; he was the best.

Remember Alfred Nobel, later of Nobel Prize fame, who – reportedly – read his own obituary

that was mistakenly printed when his brother died and a newspaper got mixed up. He was horrified at

what he read and realized he should change his behavior.

Don’t count on a newsroom mix-up: Decide what you would like your obituary to say and

live the life to deserve it.

Greatness does not come about through accumulating great amounts of money, great amounts

of publicity or great power in government. When you help someone in any of thousands of ways, you

help the world. Kindness is costless but also priceless. Whether you are religious or not, it’s hard to

beat The Golden Rule as a guide to behavior.

I write this as one who has been thoughtless countless times and made many mistakes but

also became very lucky in learning from some wonderful friends how to behave better (still a long

way from perfect, however). Keep in mind that the cleaning lady is as much a human being as the

Chairman.

* * * * * * * * * * * *

I wish all who read this a very happy Thanksgiving. Yes, even the jerks; it’s never too late to

change. Remember to thank America for maximizing your opportunities. But it is – inevitably –

capricious and sometimes venal in distributing its rewards.

Choose your heroes very carefully and then emulate them. You will never be perfect, but you

can always be better.

About Berkshire

Berkshire Hathaway and its subsidiaries engage in diverse business activities including insurance and

reinsurance, utilities and energy, freight rail transportation, manufacturing, services and retailing.

Common stock of the company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, trading symbols BRK.A

and BRK.B.

– End –

Contact

Marc D. Hamburg

402-346-1400

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 BBG: 由于美国政府停摆导致关键数据缺失,美联储决策者们如同盲人摸象,这种不确定性正在考验投资者的神经。 周四,市场突然涌现避险情绪,导致今年涨幅最大的几只股票大幅下跌,加密货币近期的跌势也进一步加剧。许多交易员指出,美联储12月再次降息的 可能性降低 ,是引发此次抛售潮的最可能原因。掉期交易员目前预计降息的可能性约为50%,低于一周前的72%,而美联储官员在近期的讲话中也未流露出降息的决心。 那些被称为高动量股以及散户投资者青睐的股票,在股市抛售潮中首当其冲,跌幅创下4月以来最大,而它们在今年早些时候曾录得市场最强劲的涨幅之一。动量策略的核心在于买入近期表现优异的股票,同时做空表现落后的股票。其中一些表现优异的股票与人工智能相关,在市场对这项技术的狂热推动下,它们的估值也随之飙升。 Miller Tabak + Co.首席市场策略师Matt Maley 表示:“利率下调的承诺曾是许多投资者愿意忽视动量股高估值的原因。 如今,随着这一承诺的吸引力减弱,投资者正在减持这些高估值股票。” 美国银行高 动量股票 组合周四下跌4.7%,创下自4月份以来最大单日跌幅,当时正值 特朗普 总统关税威胁最为激烈之时。该组合此前已从4月份的低点反弹,涨幅高达63%(截至周一)。 JonesTrading 首席市场策略师 Michael O'Rourke 表示,高动量股票往往是成长型股票,它们受益于较低的利率,因为这会降低估值模型中的贴现率,从而使其市盈率得以扩张。 “如果利率下降的速度没有投资者预期的那么快,那么预期就会重置,从而导致抛售,进而收窄市盈率,以适应新的预期,”他说道。 近几周来,人工智能板块的受益股已开始回落,投资者对估值过高和巨额资本支出的担忧促使他们获利了结。美国银行动量指数中的人工智能相关股票周四大幅下跌,其中 闪迪公司(SanDisk Corp.) 下跌14%, Astera Labs Inc. 下跌8.4%。在大型人工智能相关股票中,英伟达公司 (Nvidia Corp.) 下跌3.6%, 博通公司(Broadcom Inc.) 下跌4.3%, Palantir Technologies Inc. 下跌6.5%。 美国主要股指中,纳斯达克100指数表现最差,下跌2%,标普500指数下跌1.7%。比特币跌幅扩大,从10月份创下的纪录跌幅超过22%。 ...

2025年五大市场发展趋势

 经济学人: 全球股票持有者 又迎来了一个辉煌的年份。美国、欧洲、印度和日本的股市预计将在2025年底达到或接近历史最高水平,部分市场甚至接近连续第三年实现两位数增长。这部分反映了投资者对人工智能盈利潜力的日益乐观。然而,更广泛的市场情绪也高涨。亚洲新兴市场的公司从未像现在这样需要向债券持有人支付如此低的溢价才能借款;投资级美国公司自上世纪90年代以来也从未支付过如此低的溢价。 然而,这些主要数据低估了市场参与者今年所经历的动荡程度。4月份,唐纳德·特朗普的“解放日”关税政策威胁到世界贸易,全球金融体系一度濒临危机边缘。在这一年中,一些长期趋势戛然而止或逆转。以下是2025年五大最具影响力的市场发展事件。 对山姆大叔的信任动摇了 四月初,美国股市短暂地呈现出类似危机频发的新兴市场的走势。特朗普宣布对世界其他地区加征巨额且毫无道理的关税后,美国股市暴跌。投资者担忧政府债券的安全,纷纷抛售。债券价格下跌,收益率上升,理论上应该支撑美元。然而,市场反应却出乎意料,惊慌失措的交易员纷纷抛售美元。 图表来源:《经济学人》 特朗普做出回应,取消或推迟了大部分关税,恐慌情绪随之消退。投资者们认为,白宫的行事作风并不像他们之前担心的那样肆无忌惮,市场仍然能够起到约束作用。美国国债和美元汇率趋于稳定,美国股市也恢复了长期攀升的势头。然而,人们对美国的信心并未完全恢复。美元几乎没有从暴跌中恢复过来(见图表1),外国投资者现在更加热衷于对冲其美元风险敞口。在下一次危机中,他们不太可能忘记美国国债作为避险资产失效的经历,哪怕只是短暂的失效。 股市落后者和领先者互换了位置 年初,美国股市的表现令全球艳羡。其股价在2023年和2024年分别上涨了26%和23%,而其他发达市场股票的涨幅分别为14%和2%。然而,尽管美国处于人工智能热潮的核心地位,但今年的涨势却戛然而止(见图表2)。 图表来源:《经济学人》 美元走软解释了部分转变,但并非全部。欧洲股市表现亮眼,这得益于德国刺激经济的计划以及整个欧洲大陆不断增长的国防开支。欧洲内部也出现了另一种逆转:曾经的“边缘”国家股市表现超过了“核心”国家。预计2025年表现突出的国家包括希腊、意大利、西班牙和波兰。曾经陷入困境的银行表现尤为出色。 与此同时,新兴市场股票的表现多年来首次超越发达市场: MSCI 新兴市场和发达市场指数分别上涨了27%...

如果人工智能泡沫破裂,可能会引发一场不同寻常的经济衰退

 经济学人: 如果   美国   股市 崩盘,这将是历史上最受关注的金融崩溃之一。从银行高管到 国际货币基金组织, 所有人都对美国科技公司过高的估值发出警告。各国央行行长正严阵以待,准备应对金融危机;那些在2007-2009年做空次贷危机而声名鹊起的投资者,如今又卷土重来,准备再次进行“大做空”。任何市场波动的迹象,例如近期 纳斯达克 科技股指数的小幅周线下跌,都会引发市场即将崩盘的猜测。 难怪如此。在“七大科技巨头”的推动下, 标普 500指数的周期性调整市盈率已达到互联网泡沫时期以来的最高水平。投资者押注于人工智能(  AI )领域的巨额投资终将获得回报。然而,相关数字令人望而生畏。摩根大通银行估计,到2030年,企业若想在 人工智能资本 支出方面实现10%的预期回报,就需要每年6500亿美元的 人工智能 收入——相当于每位iPhone用户每年支付超过400美元。历史表明,即便新技术最终会改变世界,但如此高的期望往往在初期就会落空。 尽管股市崩盘几乎不会让任何人感到意外,但很少有人认真思考其后果。部分原因是,目前股市暴跌引发全面金融危机的可能性很小。与2000年代末期普遍存在的杠杆和复杂的金融运作助长了次贷危机中债务驱动的房地产泡沫不同,如今 人工智能的 狂热主要由股权融资支撑。此外,近年来实体经济已经证明,它能够很好地抵御从欧洲能源危机到美国关税等各种冲击。 经济衰退正变得越来越罕见 。 然而,认为股市暴跌的影响仅限于投资者的钱包,那就大错特错了。 繁荣持续的时间越长,其融资就越不透明 。即便没有金融危机,股市的急剧下跌最终也可能使原本韧性十足的世界经济陷入衰退。 脆弱性的根源在于美国消费者。股票占美国家庭财富的21%,比互联网泡沫鼎盛时期高出约四分之一。过去一年,与 人工智能 相关的资产贡献了美国人财富增长的近一半。随着家庭财富的增长,他们也逐渐习惯于减少储蓄,储蓄水平低于新冠疫情爆发前(尽管不及次贷危机时期那么低)。 股市崩盘将逆转这些趋势。 我们计算得出 ,如果股市下跌幅度与互联网泡沫破裂相当,美国家庭的净资产将减少8%。这可能导致消费支出大幅缩减。根据经验法则,这种回落将相当于 GDP的1.6%——足以将劳动力市场本已疲软的美国推入衰退。对消费者的影响将远远超过 人工智能 投资枯竭 可能带来的影响 ,而这些投资大多...

美国市场暴跌加剧,科技股、加密货币到黄金无一幸免

 WSJ: 周一,金融市场抛售加剧,波及了从黄金、加密货币到高歌猛进的科技股等各类资产,拖累道琼斯指数创下自美国总统特朗普4月份引发关税动荡以来最差的三日连跌表现。 投资者近几日纷纷抛售资产,市场即将迎来关键考验,以判断推动股市在2025年迭创新高的AI热潮和经济增长能否持续到新的一年。 英伟达 (Nvidia)定于周三公布财报,这将是反映芯片需求的最新风向标。因政府停摆而推迟发布的9月份就业数据将于周四公布。 本月市场一直动荡,此前大型科技公司预计将进行大规模资本支出,而这些支出越来越依赖于发行巨额债务。交易员的忧虑已将华尔街所谓的“恐慌指数”——Cboe波动率指数(Cboe Volatility Index)——推升至4月份关税消息宣布以来的最高水平之一。 周一的市场下跌提供了新的证据,表明华尔街正在更仔细地审视那些支撑着美国历史上最大规模基础设施建设之一的昂贵、且有时是循环的交易。此次下跌发生之际,正值亚马逊(Amazon)准备发行150亿美元债券。 高盛资产管理(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)量化投资策略全球联席主管奥斯曼·阿里(Osman Ali)说:“赢家应该会多于输家。但与此同时,很明显,有些公司将无法在这个新世界中竞争。” 周一,以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.8%,标普500指数下滑0.9%。道琼斯指数下跌1.2%,跌幅557点。 沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)对一家大型科技公司的最新押注,不足以提振投资者对其他AI概念股的乐观情绪。 伯克希尔哈撒韦 公司(Berkshire Hathaway)周五披露斥资数以十亿美元计买入Alphabet股票,推动这家谷歌(Google)母公司股价周一上涨3.1%。在这家总部位于内布拉斯加州奥马哈的公司减持 苹果公司 (Apple)股份后,后者股价下跌1.8%。 与此同时,英伟达、Meta和亚马逊股价均下跌。Advanced Micro Devices、Super Micro Computer和AI服务器大供应商戴尔科技(Dell Technologies)的股价也出现下跌。 甲骨文公司 (Oracle)和CoreWeave延续了长达数周的跌势。 周一的下跌导致标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数跌破一道它们已连续138个交易日未曾跌破的关口——而且不是朝着...

有什么能阻止德国工业的衰落?

 FT: 在德国工程技术引以为傲的核心地带,繁荣不再是理所当然的。 上个月,激光和机床制造商通快(Trumpf)——该国被称为“中型企业”(Mittelstand)的全球成功家族企业的代表——自全球金融危机以来首次出现亏损。 24小时内,其所在地——位于富裕的西南部巴登-符腾堡州的迪岑根市宣布将加大财政紧缩力度。当地企业税是该市的主要收入来源,但自2023年以来已暴跌80%,导致该市未来几年预算将长期处于严重赤字状态。 迪岑根市财政局长帕特里克·迈尔告诉《金融时报》,虽然他预料到会受到冲击,“但我真的没想到情况会这么糟糕”。迈尔确信“我们正面临一场结构性危机”。 Trumpf是该镇最大的纳税人,截至 6 月的 12 个月内,其销售额下降了 16%,至 43 亿欧元,原因是订单连续第三年减少。 “目前的情况似乎常常陷入瘫痪,”首席执行官尼古拉·莱宾格-卡穆勒在10月份向记者发布年度业绩报告时表示。 这种悲观的评估反映了德国的国民情绪。欧洲最大的经济体已经连续四年陷入停滞。保时捷咨询公司合伙人德克·菲茨表示,保守派总理弗里德里希·默茨上任六个月后,“德国工程行业的危机正在迅速加剧”。他还补充说,很明显,此次衰退并非周期性现象,也不会在下一次经济复苏中“自动消失”。 尽管9月份出现部分反弹,但德国工业生产仍维持在2005年的水平。“德国的许多核心经济优势已经变成了弱点,”总部位于慕尼黑的咨询公司罗兰贝格的全球董事总经理马库斯·贝雷特表示。这些弱点包括难以脱碳的庞大工业基础、在全球化面临威胁之际对出口的高度依赖,以及不得不放弃140年内燃机技术积累的强大汽车工业。 所有这一切都因美国和中国相隔十年做出的两项截然不同的政治决定而加剧:唐纳德·特朗普发起的贸易战,以及北京十年前决定将自己打造成为全球高科技工程强国。 特朗普的关税政策已经对德国出口商造成了沉重打击:今年前九个月,德国对美国的出口下降了 7.4%。 但中国的前景反而更加黯淡,造成了“中国冲击”,如今正在侵蚀全球成功的德国公司的利润。 在新冠疫情爆发前的近二十年里,中国对德国工程产品和汽车的需求似乎永无止境,推动了默克尔时代企业利润、就业和经济活动的增长。 然而,法兰克福咨询公司Thin Ice Macroeconomics的创始人斯皮罗斯·安德烈奥普洛斯表示,自疫情爆发以来,中国“在德国擅长的领域正日益超越...

由于特朗普关税推高消费者成本,全球最大铝生产商提高了产品价格

 BBG: 力拓集团 将对销往美国的铝材征收附加费,此举可能会进一步扰乱北美市场。北美市场已经因进口关税而动荡不安,这些关税正在推高消费者的成本。 据知情人士透露,由于需求开始超过供应,这家英澳矿业巨头以库存低为由,对运往美国的铝订单加收额外费用。 美国严重依赖外国铝供应,因为其自身产能不足以满足需求。加拿大是美国最大的 外国铝供应国 ,占美国铝进口总量的50%以上。 今年早些时候,美国总统特朗普对这种轻质金属(其用途涵盖从汽水罐到建筑等各个领域)征收了50%的进口关税,这使得本已极度紧张的美国市场雪上加霜。关税导致 加拿大进口金属 价格过高,美国金属加工商和消费者难以承受。他们转而动用国内库存和外汇仓库,导致供应减少,价格飙升。 最新的加价相当于在原有价格基础上再加价,因为美国铝价已经包含了所谓的“ 中西部溢价”  ——这笔费用是在伦敦基准价格之上增加的,反映了将铝运往美国市场所需的运输、仓储、保险和融资成本。每个地区的溢价都不同,通常由价格报告机构设定。 知情人士透露,新的附加费比中西部地区的溢价高出1到3美分。由于涉及私人合同细节,这些人士要求匿名。虽然金额不大,但加上中西部地区的溢价,每吨金属的价格将额外增加2006美元,而原材料价格约为每吨2830美元,这意味着溢价超过70%。这高于特朗普政府征收的50%的进口关税。 消费者和交易商形容市场几乎已经崩溃,附加费的上涨最清晰地表明了 特朗普的税收政策 对市场 结构造成的深远破坏 。上周,运往美国的铝价(包括基准价格和中西部溢价)创下历史新高,而库存却在不断减少。 “现在美国想要吸引铝业企业,就必须付出代价,因为美国并不是唯一一个铝短缺的市场,” 美国银行 金属研究主管 迈克尔·维德默表示 。 美国铝价飙升,关税收紧金属市场 美国市场的区域溢价已攀升至历史新高。 资料来源:Fastmarkets、伦敦金属交易所、彭博社 注:美国铝价为伦敦金属交易所(LME)现货价格加上地区溢价。 力拓集团拒绝置评。加拿大铝业协会 主席 让 ·西马尔 解释说,买家如果要求超过30天的付款期限,应该预期会支付溢价,以抵消生产商更高的融资成本。 “美国政府对铝征收 50% 的关税,大大增加了在美国持有铝库存的风险,因为任何关税变化都可能直接影响现金交易和库存融资交易的经济效益,”西马尔德说。 美国铝价飙升,高于海外...

拉里·萨默斯怎么会这么蠢?

 POLITICO: 挖洞的第一条规则就是停止挖洞,”拉里·萨默斯几个月前在接受《纽约时报》采访时说道,他在采访中解释了为什么他认为特朗普政府应该停止对外国征收关税。 萨默斯本该听从自己的建议:直到 2019 年 7 月 5 日,也就是爱泼斯坦最后一次被捕的前一天,他才停止为自己身处的困境挖坑,当时他给已故的性犯罪者杰弗里·爱泼斯坦发送了最后一封电子邮件。 现在,在有关萨默斯与爱泼斯坦长达十多年的通信往来被曝光之后——当时爱泼斯坦已经因引诱未成年人卖淫而被判入狱——萨默斯宣布他将退出公开活动,至少不会再参与那些他可能会被问及爱泼斯坦相关问题的场合。 萨默斯表示他将继续在哈佛大学任教,他目前担任“大学教授”,这是哈佛大学授予教职人员的最高荣誉——在哈佛文理学院约900名终身教授中,只有24位大学教授。这个数字可能很快就会降至23位。伊丽莎白·沃伦在当选美国参议员之前曾是哈佛法学院的教授,她已经呼吁哈佛大学解雇萨默斯。学生、校友和捐赠者肯定也会纷纷响应。虽然任何时候让一名被定罪的性犯罪者担任笔友都不是好事,但在唐纳德·特朗普总统密切关注之际,哈佛大学此时接纳这样一位显而易见的“累赘”尤其不合时宜。 萨默斯如今面临着职业生涯黯然落幕的局面,他数十年的公共生涯可谓跌宕起伏。即便像萨默斯这样韧性十足的人,也很难再为他的政治生涯画上一个圆满的句号。考虑到他臭名昭著的傲慢在华盛顿、剑桥乃至更广阔的领域得罪了多少人,他的落败无疑会招致不少人的欢呼。 萨默斯年轻时就展现出几乎无人能及的天赋。他是个智力神童;7岁时就能背诵出约翰·F·肯尼迪内阁成员的名字。他曾参加过一个体育广播问答节目,回答问题的速度之快,以至于电台都无题可问了。 坦白说,年轻的拉里·萨默斯(Larry Summers)被寄予厚望。他的父母都是宾夕法尼亚大学的经济学教授。他的两位叔叔,保罗·萨缪尔森(Paul Samuelson)和肯·阿罗(Ken Arrow),都是20世纪经济学界最伟大的思想家之一。(据说,拉里的父亲罗伯特·萨默斯(Robert Summers)因为害怕学术界的反犹主义,将自己的名字从萨缪尔森改为萨默斯。)萨缪尔森和阿罗都因其杰出的成就获得了诺贝尔奖。萨默斯获得诺贝尔奖似乎也顺理成章。在麻省理工学院(MIT)完成本科学习后,萨默斯进入哈佛大学攻读研究生,师从著名的保守派经济学家马丁·费尔德斯...

忧心忡忡的投资者2026年投资指南

 FT: 担忧是懦夫的行为。如果我们从2025年学到了什么,那就是全球经济、其中的企业以及反映它们的市场,都比我们许多人预测的要坚韧得多。 关税?无所谓。地缘政治联盟?制度完整性?当然,听起来很重要。尽管面临诸多挑战,尽管在唐纳德·特朗普4月份宣布加征关税后市场一度暴跌,但股市总体上一路走高,债券表现也相当稳健,私人资产也明显没有崩盘。目前的共识是,这种好势头将会持续,市场将在2026年保持强劲增长。 然而,基金经理的职责之一就是考虑风险。有些风险无法预测或控制——例如陨石撞击、丧尸末日等等。但有些风险则更容易量化。 最有可能爆发的领域莫过于人工智能交易。科技公司营收飙升,加上人工智能基础设施建设投入巨资,使得股票表现优异看似泡沫,但并非海市蜃楼。然而,我们目前尚不清楚美国大型科技公司周围的护城河究竟有多深多宽,中国是否有可能迎头赶上(DeepSeek在2025年1月的表现表明这种可能性存在),如今的行业巨头能否继续保持领先地位(Alphabet对英伟达的挑战便是最好的例证),以及从长远来看,终端消费者是否愿意为这项技术支付足够的费用,以证明所有投入的合理性。大型科技公司在投资者投资组合中的庞大规模,使得这些问题不容忽视。 即便在近期股价下跌之后,英伟达的市值仍然超过4万亿美元。如果整个行业出现大幅回调,将会对美国股市造成巨大冲击,并波及全球股市。任何公司都将在严重的冲击中遭受重创。 贝莱德在其2026年展望报告中强调了这一点。“如果人工智能主题遭遇挫折,其影响可能会远远超过任何看似分散投资的努力,”贝莱德团队表示。这当然是一个很大的“如果”,但仍然值得关注。“投资组合需要明确的备选方案,并做好快速调整的准备。” 投资者经常告诉我,他们正在通过增持亚洲资产、进军能源基础设施或科技相关资源来实现多元化投资,以减少对芯片行业的直接投资。在我看来,这毫无道理,因为这些都是人工智能价值链上的环节。一旦经济衰退,我们就能知道谁的说法才是正确的。 第二个重大风险是,人工智能领域的快速增长支出可能导致通胀死灰复燃。美国年度消费者价格通胀率仍维持在3%左右,美联储首选的通胀指标也远高于目标水平。投资者普遍认为通胀将继续走低,这将使美联储明年至少再降息一次。但一些人怀疑,关税引发的通胀风险依然潜伏。 然后呢?市场波动似乎不可避免。如果美联储加息,股市可能会遭受重创。如果美联储...

比特币触及触发点,全球股市下跌

  由于投资者在英伟达公司财报和关键的美国就业报告 即将发布之际,纷纷从风险较高的市场板块撤资,股市遭到抛售,比特币跌至七个月来的最低点 。 全球股市 指数 跌至近一个月低点, 亚洲股​​市 下跌2.1%,自4月以来首次跌破50日移动均线。一些投资者将此视为看跌信号。 比特币价格 跌破 9万美元 ,进一步加剧了市场情绪。 标普500指数、纳斯达克100指数和欧洲股市的合约均显示,股票价格将进一步下跌。随着投资者规避风险,债券价格上涨,基准10年期美国国债收益率下跌3个基点至4.11%。 法国兴业银行全球外汇期权交易联席主管托马斯·比罗 表示:“股指一直在紧张地向下移动,而比特币——通常被视为高贝塔系数风险的代表——几乎与这些走势完全同步。 这种相关性给市场情绪增添了另一层压力,因为加密货币的疲软加剧了流动性收紧和避险情绪的担忧。” 这些举动凸显了利率和科技公司盈利方面持续存在的不确定性, 英伟达 周三发布的财报将考验投资者对人工智能行业高估值的信心。随后,市场焦点将转向推迟至周四发布的9月份 就业报告 ,该报告将为投资者提供美联储政策前景的线索。 研究美国股市图表形态的分析师们敲响了警钟 ,他们担心最近的下跌可能会演变成至少 10% 的全面调整。 周一标普500指数遭遇大幅抛售,跌幅扩大至3.2%,此前该指数已于10月28日创下历史新高。该基准指数139个交易日以来首次收于50日移动均线下方,打破了本世纪以来第二长的连续高于这条备受关注的趋势线的纪录。 22V Research技术分析主管约翰·罗克 表示,纳斯达克综合指数也发出了一些“不祥”信号。 他指出,该指数3300多只成分股中,处于52周低点的股票数量多于处于52周高点的股票数量,这表明市场内部疲软,进一步反弹的可能性不大。 “总体而言,今年对投资者来说是丰收的一年,但随着年底临近,市场情绪明显紧张,” AT Global Markets驻悉尼首席市场分析师 尼克·特威代尔表示 。“随着圣诞节交易期的到来,未来几周市场波动可能会进一步加剧。” 彭博策略师怎么说…… 由于对人工智能过热的担忧,以及投资者对美联储可能将降息25个基点的计划推迟一个月左右的明显震惊,市场风险偏好有所下降。然而,鉴于美国经济很可能保持韧性,且美联储也乐于在经济出现疲软迹象时采取宽松政策,美国和全球股市很可能从目前的低迷状态中反...