美国面临牛肉短缺

经济学人：

THE WEST LOOP in Chicago was once the city’s meatpacking district. That is long gone, but the neighbourhood is still a place where people come from miles around to buy beef. At Au Cheval, a fancy burger joint where tourists queue up for hours, the signature dish is a double cheeseburger served with a fried egg. It is reputed, at least among Chicagoans, to be the best burger in the world. Yet the price of such a delight is rising. It is not only that eggs now sell for $6 a dozen, thanks to bird flu. More quietly, beef has been rising in price for years now too. And thanks to Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, it may be about to get much worse.

芝加哥的西环区曾经是这座城市的肉类加工区。虽然那早已不复存在，但人们仍然从数英里外赶来购买牛肉。在 Au Cheval 这家高档汉堡店，游客们会排队几个小时，这里的招牌菜是双层芝士汉堡配煎蛋。至少在芝加哥人看来，这是世界上最好的汉堡。然而，如此美味的汉堡价格却在上涨。由于禽流感，鸡蛋现在售价为每打 6 美元。更悄无声息的是，牛肉价格多年来一直在上涨。而由于唐纳德·特朗普提出的关税，情况可能将变得更糟。

Since January 2020 the average price of a pound of beef mince has risen from $3.90 to $5.60, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. That is a 45% increase, almost double the general rate of inflation. The price rise is the result of high demand combined with tight supply, according to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, a lobby group for the industry. Thanks to underinvestment a decade ago America’s cattle herd is smaller than in the past, but Americans still love their burgers and steaks. There is now a national beef shortfall.

美国劳工统计局的数据显示，自 2020 年 1 月以来，每磅牛肉碎的平均价格已从 3.90 美元上涨至 5.60 美元。涨幅达 45%，几乎是总体通胀率的两倍。据该行业的游说团体美国全国牛肉协会称，价格上涨是需求旺盛和供应紧张的结果。由于十年前投资不足，美国的牛群数量比过去少，但美国人仍然喜欢汉堡和牛排。现在全国牛肉短缺。

Thankfully, imports have saved the day. As recently as 2022 America was a net exporter of beef. That has now reversed. Last year imports totalled 2m head of live cattle and 4.6bn pounds (2.1bn kg) of the dead variety–a record high. That has stopped prices rising further. Yet Mr Trump seems more worried about foreign herds crossing the border than he is about inflation. On March 3rd, on his social-media platform, Truth Social, the president staked out a new position. On April 2nd he will be imposing hefty new tariffs on agricultural imports. That will probably include beef. Farmers, he said, should “get ready” to grow food to sell to Americans, and “have fun”.

值得庆幸的是，进口挽救了局面。就在 2022 年，美国还是牛肉净出口国。现在情况已经逆转。去年，进口活牛共计 200 万头，死牛共计 46 亿磅（21 亿公斤），创下历史新高。这阻止了价格进一步上涨。然而，特朗普似乎更担心外国牛群越过边境，而不是通货膨胀。3 月 3 日，总统在他的社交媒体平台 Truth Social 上表明了新的立场。4 月 2 日，他将对农产品进口征收高额新关税。这可能包括牛肉。他说，农民应该“准备好”种植粮食卖给美国人，并“玩得开心”。

One might think cattlemen at least would be delighted. Unlike say, soyabean farmers, who largely export their crop and so will get hit by reciprocal tariffs, they are at a medium-rare advantage: Americans are already buyers, and a squeeze on imports will merely push up the price. “You could make the argument…it is actually going to help the domestic market,” says Steve Sonderman, a rancher in north-east Nebraska. The problem, he goes on to explain, is that ranching is more complicated than that. “We’re trying to be in a rebuilding phase for the herd,” he says. A sudden price spike would encourage farmers to sell down their stocks rather than invest. Meanwhile, consumers might learn to like alternatives to red meat. “So it’d be a great thing for price, but probably a horrible thing for the industry,” he says.

人们可能认为养牛人至少会很高兴。与大豆种植者不同，大豆种植者主要出口作物，因此会受到互惠关税的打击，养牛人处于中等优势：美国人已经是买家，进口紧缩只会推高价格。“你可以说……这实际上会帮助国内市场，”内布拉斯加州东北部的牧场主史蒂夫·桑德曼说。他继续解释说，问题在于，牧场比这更复杂。“我们正试图进入重建阶段，”他说。价格突然上涨将鼓励农民出售库存而不是投资。与此同时，消费者可能会学会喜欢红肉的替代品。“所以这对价格来说是件好事，但对行业来说可能是一件坏事，”他说。

Even if the proposed agricultural tariffs do not go into effect, a now partially suspended separate 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico may be reimposed. Just like an engine part, a cow may cross many borders before it is finally eaten. Of America’s imported cows, a large share are calves raised in Mexico then brought to America to fatten. Once fattened, many then go to Canadian slaughterhouses, with the product subsequently reimported. That may all be disrupted too. Mr Trump famously likes to eat his steaks well done. With these tariffs he may be the one who gets burnt.

即使拟议的农业关税不生效，目前已部分暂停的对加拿大和墨西哥的 25% 单独关税也可能重新实施。就像发动机零件一样，一头牛在最终被食用之前可能要跨越许多边境。在美国进口的牛中，很大一部分是墨西哥饲养的牛犊，然后运到美国育肥。育肥后，许多牛犊会被运到加拿大的屠宰场，随后再将产品重新进口。这一切也可能被打乱。众所周知，特朗普喜欢吃全熟的牛排。这些关税可能会让他吃亏。