为什么美元走强是危险的
经济学人: The dollar is looking increasingly formidable. As American growth has stayed strong and investors have scaled back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, money has flooded into the country’s markets—and the greenback has shot up. It has risen by 4% this year, measured against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, and the fundamentals point to further appreciation. With a presidential election looming, and both Democrats and Republicans determined to promote American manufacturing, the world is on the verge of a difficult new period of strong-dollar geopolitics. 美元看起来越来越强大。随着美国经济增长保持强劲,投资者缩减了对美联储将降息的押注,资金涌入美国市场,美元飙升。以贸易加权的一篮子货币衡量,它今年上涨了 4%,基本面表明进一步升值。随着总统大选的临近,民主党人和共和党人都决心促进美国制造业的发展,世界正处于强势美元地缘政治的艰难新时期的边缘。 This situation is made still more difficult by the fact that the currency’s strength reflects weakness elsewhere. By the end of 2023, America’s economy was 8% larger than at the end of 2019. Those of Britain, France, Germany and Japan each grew by less than 2% d