美国今年的利率不太可能下降

经济学人：

For most of the year everyone from stockpickers and homebuyers to President Joe Biden has banked on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates soon. Over the past two weeks those hopes have been dashed. Annual consumer price inflation in March, at 3.5%, was higher than expected for the third month in a row; retail sales grew by a boomy 0.7% on the previous month. On April 16th Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, warned that the battle against inflation was taking “longer than expected”. Investors had begun 2024 pricing in more than 1.5 percentage points of interest-rate cuts over the course of the year. Today they expect rates to fall by only 0.5 points.

在今年的大部分时间里，从选股者和购房者到总统乔 · 拜登，每个人都寄希望于美联储很快降息。在过去的两周里，这些希望破灭了。3 月份消费者价格年通胀率为 3.5%，连续第三个月高于预期; 零售额环比增长 0.7%。4 月 16 日，美联储主席杰罗姆 · 鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）警告称，抗击通胀的斗争 “比预期的要长”。投资者已开始定价 2024 年全年降息超过 1.5 个百分点。今天，他们预计利率将仅下降 0.5 个百分点。

Mr Powell has conducted a pivot upon a pivot. The euphoric expectations for rate cuts took on a life of their own after the Fed turned too doveish in December. That unduly stimulated the economy and will force the central bank to retrace its steps, and then some. The consequences of higher-for-longer interest rates will reverberate around America, financial markets and the world economy.

鲍威尔先生已经进行了一次又一次的转向。在美联储去年 12 月变得过于鸽派之后，对降息的欣喜若狂的预期开始了自己的生活。这过度刺激了经济，并将迫使央行回溯其步骤，然后是一些步骤。长期高利率的后果将在美国、金融市场和世界经济中产生反响。

America’s economy has demonstrated that it can withstand at least a temporary period of higher rates. On April 16th the IMF forecast that it would grow by 2.7% in 2024, up from the 2.1% it expected in January. Yet its resilience to prolonged exposure to high rates is less certain.

美国经济已经证明，它至少可以承受暂时的加息。4 月 16 日，国际货币基金组织预测，2024 年将增长 2.7%，高于 1 月份预期的 2.1%。然而，它对长期暴露于高利率的弹性不太确定。

Many companies issued corporate debt during the pandemic when rates were much lower. That has helped them cope with high rates so far; but eventually they will have to refinance and pay up. Mortgage-interest rates of nearly 7% have frozen much of the housing market. America’s high and rapidly growing government debt is also becoming much more expensive to service: the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds has risen to about 4.6% from 4.2% at the end of March. Already the most recent forecasts, predicated on lower rates, saw net interest absorbing more of this year’s federal budget than defence.

许多公司在大流行期间发行了公司债券，当时利率要低得多。到目前为止，这帮助他们应对了高利率; 但最终他们将不得不再融资并支付。近 7% 的抵押贷款利率冻结了大部分房地产市场。美国高企且快速增长的政府债务也变得更加昂贵：十年期国债收益率已从 3 月底的 4.2% 升至 4.6% 左右。基于较低利率的最新预测显示，净利息在今年联邦预算中吸收的份额超过了国防预算。

Financial markets will also feel the effects of continued high rates. The Fed’s doveishness in December propelled a stockmarket boom; though that recently lost steam, the S&P 500 index of stocks remains a fifth above its level at the end of October, when rates were last expected to stay higher for longer. Stocks now look vulnerable to a correction.

金融市场也将感受到持续高利率的影响。美联储在 12 月的鸽派态度推动了股市繁荣; 尽管最近失去了动力，但标准普尔 500 指数仍比 10 月底的水平高出五分之一，当时预计利率将在更长时间内保持较高水平。股市现在看起来很容易受到调整的影响。

Moreover, the problems that high rates exposed in America’s banking system in 2023 still lurk. At the last count there were $478bn of unrealised losses on banks’ balance-sheets, much of which result from higher rates reducing the value of government and mortgage-backed bonds. That figure will have risen now that bond yields have shot up again.

此外，2023 年高利率暴露在美国银行体系中的问题仍然潜伏着。根据最新统计，银行资产负债表上有 4780 亿美元的未实现亏损，其中大部分是由于利率上升降低了政府和抵押贷款支持债券的价值。现在，随着债券收益率再次飙升，这一数字将会上升。

The consequences of higher rates in America will also ripple out to the rest of the world. Though there are signs of somewhat sticky inflation elsewhere—Britain’s consumer price inflation was also higher than expected in March—no major economy is as hot as America’s. The IMF’s forecast for euro-zone growth this year, for example, is just 0.8%. The result is a strengthening dollar, which is up about 5% against its biggest trading partners this year. Strikingly, the Japanese yen has slipped to nearly 155 against the greenback, despite a historic (though modest) monetary tightening in March, prompting speculation that the government may intervene to defend the currency directly.

美国加息的后果也将波及世界其他地区。尽管其他地方的通胀存在一定粘性的迹象——英国 3 月份的消费者价格通胀也高于预期——但没有一个主要经济体像美国那样火爆。例如，国际货币基金组织对欧元区今年经济增长的预测仅为 0.8%。结果是美元走强，今年美元兑其最大贸易伙伴上涨了约 5%。引人注目的是，尽管 3 月份实施了历史性（尽管温和的）货币紧缩政策，但日元兑美元已跌至近 155，这引发了人们对政府可能进行干预以直接捍卫日元的猜测。

In theory a stronger dollar should help the rest of the world by making its exports more competitive, and growth in America should spill across borders as it sucks in imports. But a surging greenback can also disrupt trade and borrowing that is denominated in dollars. Economies that rely on commodity imports, such as Japan’s, face a double squeeze from a stronger greenback and a rising dollar price of oil, which is up by about 20% since early December and could rise a little further if strife in the Middle East worsens.

从理论上讲，美元走强应该有助于世界其他地区，使其出口更具竞争力，而美国的增长应该在吸收进口的同时跨越国界。但美元飙升也可能扰乱以美元计价的贸易和借贷。依赖大宗商品进口的经济体，如日本，面临着美元走强和美元油价上涨的双重挤压，自 12 月初以来，油价上涨了约 20%，如果中东冲突恶化，油价可能会进一步上涨。

If high interest rates in America end its enviable economic run, rate cuts will eventually follow. Until then, America’s monetary policy will remain a tricky problem for the rest of the world. ■

如果美国的高利率结束了其令人羡慕的经济运行，降息最终将随之而来。在此之前，美国的货币政策对世界其他地区来说仍将是一个棘手的问题。■