中国央行和 Costco 购物者的共同点

经济学人：

Gold has always held an allure. The earliest civilisations used it for jewellery; the first forms of money were forged from it. For centuries kings clamoured to get their hands on the stuff. Charlemagne conquered much of Europe after plundering vast amounts of gold from the Avars. When King Ferdinand of Spain sent explorers to the new world in 1511, he told them to “get gold, humanely if you can, but all hazards, get gold.” Ordinary men also clamoured for it after James Marshall, a labourer, found a flake of gold while constructing a saw mill in Sacramento, California, in 1848.

黄金一直具有诱惑力。最早的文明将其用于珠宝; 第一种形式的货币是从中锻造出来的。几个世纪以来，国王们都吵着要得到这些东西。查理曼大帝在从阿瓦尔人那里掠夺了大量黄金后征服了欧洲大部分地区。1511 年，当西班牙国王斐迪南派遣探险家前往新大陆时，他告诉他们 “如果可以的话，人道地获得黄金，但所有危险，都要获得黄金。1848 年，工人詹姆斯 · 马歇尔 （James Marshall） 在加利福尼亚州萨克拉门托建造锯木厂时发现了一片金片后，普通人也大声疾呼。

People are once again spending big on the precious metal. On April 9th its spot price hit a record of $2,364 an ounce, having risen by 15% since the start of March. That gold is surging makes a certain degree of sense: the metal is seen to be a hedge against calamity and economic hardship. It tends to rally when countries are at war, economies are uncertain and inflation is rampant.

人们再次在贵金属上花费巨资。4 月 9 日，其现货价格创下每盎司 2,364 美元的纪录，自 3 月初以来上涨了 15%。黄金的飙升在一定程度上是有道理的：黄金被视为对冲灾难和经济困难的工具。当国家处于战争状态、经济不确定和通货膨胀猖獗时，它往往会反弹。

But only a certain degree. After all, why is it surging precisely now? Inflation was worse a year ago. The Ukraine war has arrived at something of a stalemate. In the month after Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7th, the price of gold rose by just 7%—half the size of its more recent rally. Moreover, investors had only recently appeared to have gone off the stuff. Those who thought gold would act as a hedge against inflation were proven sorely wrong in 2022 when prices slipped even as inflation spiralled out of control. Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin—often viewed as a substitute for gold—have gained popularity. Longtime gold analysts are puzzled by its ascent.

但只有一定程度的。毕竟，为什么它正好在现在飙升？一年前，通货膨胀情况更糟。乌克兰战争已经陷入僵局。在哈马斯 10 月 7 日袭击以色列后的一个月里，黄金价格仅上涨了 7%，是最近涨幅的一半。此外，投资者最近才开始关注这些因素。那些认为黄金可以对冲通胀的人在 2022 年被证明是大错特错的，当时即使通胀失控，价格也下滑了。像比特币这样的加密货币——通常被视为黄金的替代品——已经越来越受欢迎。长期的黄金分析师对它的上涨感到困惑。

An investor who cannot understand a rally on the basis of fundamentals must often consider a simpler rationale: there have been more eager buyers than sellers. So, who is buying gold in bulk?

如果投资者无法根据基本面来理解反弹，那么他们往往必须考虑一个更简单的理由：买家比卖家更热切。那么，谁在大量购买黄金呢？

Whoever it is, they are not using exchange-traded funds, or etfs, the tool most often used by regular folk through their brokerage accounts, as well as by some institutional investors. There have, in fact, been net outflows from gold etfs for more than a year. After tracking each other closely throughout 2020 and 2021, gold prices and etf inflows decoupled at the end of 2022. Although prices are up by around 50% since late 2022, gold held by etfs has dropped by a fifth.

无论是谁，他们都没有使用交易所交易基金或 ETF，这是普通人通过他们的经纪账户以及一些机构投资者最常使用的工具。事实上，黄金 ETF 的净流出已经超过一年了。在 2020 年和 2021 年密切跟踪后，黄金价格和 ETF 流入在 2022 年底脱钩。尽管自 2022 年底以来价格上涨了约 50%，但 ETF 持有的黄金却下跌了五分之一。

That leaves three buyers. The first, and biggest, are central banks. In general, central bankers have been increasing the share of reserves that are stored in gold—part of an effort to diversify away from dollars, a move that gathered pace after America froze Russia’s foreign-exchange reserves in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Nowhere is this shift clearer than in China, which has raised the share of its reserves held in gold from 3.3% at the end of 2021 to 4.3%. Trading has picked up in the so-called over-the-counter market, in which central banks buy much of their gold. China’s central bank added 160,000 ounces of gold, worth $384m, in March.

这样就剩下三个买家了。第一个也是最大的是中央银行。总的来说，央行行长们一直在增加黄金储备的份额——这是摆脱美元多样化努力的一部分，在美国为应对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而冻结俄罗斯的外汇储备后，这一举措加快了步伐。这种转变在中国最为明显，中国已将其黄金储备份额从 2021 年底的 3.3% 提高到 4.3%。所谓的场外交易市场的交易有所回升，各国央行在该市场购买了大部分黄金。中国央行在 3 月份增加了 16 万盎司黄金，价值 3.84 亿美元。

The second is big institutions, such as pension or mutual funds, which may have been making speculative bets or hedges on gold—in case inflation does come back or as protection against future calamities. Activity in options and futures markets, where they tend to do most of their trading, is elevated.

第二种是大型机构，如养老金或共同基金，它们可能一直在对黄金进行投机性押注或对冲，以防通胀卷土重来或作为对未来灾难的保护。期权和期货市场的活动正在增加，他们倾向于在那里进行大部分交易。

The third potential buyer is the most intriguing: perhaps private individuals or companies are buying physical gold. In August it became possible to buy hunks of the metal at Costco, an American superstore beloved by the cost-conscious middle classes for selling jumbo-size packs of toilet paper, fluffy athletic socks and rotisserie chickens, all at super-low prices. The retailer started selling single-ounce bars of gold, mostly online, for around $2,000—just a hair higher than the spot value of bullion at the time. It sold out almost immediately, and continues to do so whenever it restocks. Analysts at Wells Fargo, a bank, estimate that shoppers are buying $100m-200m worth of gold each month from the superstore, alongside their sheet cakes and detergent.

第三个潜在买家是最有趣的：也许私人或公司正在购买实物黄金。8 月，人们可以在 Costco 购买大块金属，这是一家深受注重成本的中产阶级喜爱的美国超市，以超低的价格出售大包装的卫生纸，蓬松的运动袜和烤鸡。这家零售商开始以 2000 美元左右的价格出售一盎司金条，主要是在网上，仅比当时金条的现货价值高出一根头发。它几乎立即售罄，并且每当补货时都会继续售罄。富国银行（Wells Fargo）的分析师估计，购物者每个月都会从超市购买价值 1 亿至 2 亿美元的黄金，以及蛋糕和洗涤剂。

That would be 40,000 to 80,000 ounces of gold each month; or, in other words, up to half as much as the Chinese central bank. Such behaviour is perhaps a harbinger of a trend. Inflation in America is creeping up again. It has overshot expectations for three consecutive months, and would reach 4% in 2024 if current trends were to continue. Medium-term expectations, which had dropped, have begun climbing. As shoppers peruse Costco’s wares, worrying about the cost of living, it is it any wonder they are tempted by a bit of bullion?■

这将是每月 40,000 到 80,000 盎司黄金; 或者，换句话说，高达中国央行的一半。这种行为也许预示着一种趋势。美国的通货膨胀再次攀升。它已经连续三个月超出预期，如果目前的趋势继续下去，到 2024 年将达到 4%。已经下降的中期预期已经开始攀升。当购物者仔细阅读 Costco 的商品，担心生活成本时，难怪他们会受到一点金条的诱惑？