跳至主要内容

Revealing DeepSeek: A more extreme story of Chinese technological idealism

 文 | 于丽丽  Wen | Yu Lili

编辑 | 刘旌  Edit | Liu Jing

中国的7家大模型创业公司中,DeepSeek(深度求索)最不声不响,但它又总能以出其不意的方式被人记住。
Of the 7 major model startups in China, DeepSeek is the least silent, but it can always be remembered in an unexpected way.

一年前,这种出其不意源自它背后的量化私募巨头幻方,是大厂外唯一一家储备万张A100芯片的公司,一年后,则来自它才是引发中国大模型价格战的源头。
A year ago, this kind of quantitative private equity giant fantasies that did not mean to derive behind it was the only company outside the large factory that reserved 10,000 A100 chips. One year later, it came from it to trigger the source of China's big model price war.

在被AI连续轰炸的5月,DeepSeek一跃成名。起因是他们发布的一款名为DeepSeek V2的开源模型,提供了一种史无前例的性价比:推理成本被降到每百万token仅 1块钱,约等于Llama3 70B的七分之一,GPT-4 Turbo的七十分之一。
In May, which was bombarded by AI, Deepseek became famous. The reason is that they released an open source model called DeepSeek V2, which provides an unprecedented cost-effectiveness: the reasoning cost of reasoning is reduced to only 1 yuan per million token, which is about one-seventh of LLAMA3 70B, GPT-4 4 Turbo's seventy -tenth.

DeepSeek被迅速冠以“AI界拼多多”之称的同时,字节、腾讯、百度、阿里等大厂也按耐不住,纷纷降价。中国大模型价格战由此一触即发。
At the same time that DEEPSEEK was quickly crowned as "AI Fighting Duoduo", the large manufacturers such as bytes, Tencent, Baidu, Ali and other large manufacturers were also unbearable, and the prices were reduced. The price war in China is from this.

弥漫的硝烟其实掩盖了一个事实:与很多大厂烧钱补贴不同,DeepSeek是有利润的。
The diffuse smoke actually covered a fact: Unlike many large manufacturers burning money subsidies, Deepseek is profitable.

这背后,是DeepSeek对模型架构进行了全方位创新。它提出的一种崭新的MLA(一种新的多头潜在注意力机制)架构,把显存占用降到了过去最常用的MHA架构的5%-13%,同时,它独创的DeepSeekMoESparse结构,也把计算量降到极致,所有这些最终促成了成本的下降。
Behind this is that Deepseek has innovated a full range of model architecture. It proposes a brand new MLA ( a new poly head potential attention mechanism ) architecture, which has reduced the memory of 5%-13%of the most commonly used MHA architecture in the past. The quantity dropped to the extreme, all of which eventually contributed to the decline in cost.

在硅谷,DeepSeek被称作“来自东方的神秘力量”。SemiAnalysis首席分析师认为,DeepSeek V2论文“可能是今年最好的一篇”。OpenAI前员工Andrew Carr认为论文“充满惊人智慧”,并将其训练设置应用于自己的模型。而OpenAI前政策主管、Anthropic联合创始人Jack Clark认为,DeepSeek“雇佣了一批高深莫测的奇才”,还认为中国制造的大模型,“将和无人机、电动汽车一样,成为不容忽视的力量。”
In Silicon Valley, Deepseek is called "mysterious power from the East". The chief analyst of Semianalysis believes that the DeepSeek V2 paper "may be the best article this year." Former OpenAI employee Andrew Carr believes that the paper is "full of amazing wisdom" and applies its training settings to its own model. Jack Clark, the former OPENAI policy director and co -founder of Anthropic, believes that DeepSeek "hired a group of unpredictable wizards" and also believed that the large model made in China, "will be like drones and electric vehicles, which will become unavoidable. strength."

在基本由硅谷牵动故事进展的AI浪潮里,这是罕有的情形。多位行业人士告诉我们,这种强烈的反响源自架构层面的创新,是国产大模型公司乃至全球开源基座大模型都很罕见的尝试。一位AI研究者表示,Attention架构提出多年来,几乎未被成功改过,更遑论大规模验证。“这甚至是一个做决策时就会被掐断的念头,因为大部分人都缺乏信心。”
This is a rare situation in the wave of AI that basically touched the story by Silicon Valley. A number of industry people told us that this strong response originated from the architecture level innovation, which is a rare attempt to be a rare attempt to make large domestic model companies and even global open source base models. A AI researcher said that the Attention architecture has been proposed for many years, and it has almost been successfully changed, let alone large -scale verification. "This is even a idea of ​​being cut off when making decisions, because most people lack confidence."

而另一方面,国产大模型之前很少涉足架构层面的创新,也是因为很少有人主动去击破那样一种成见:美国更擅长从0-1的技术创新,而中国更擅长从1-10的应用创新。何况这种行为非常不划算——新一代模型,过几个月自然有人做出来,中国公司只要跟随、做好应用即可。对模型结构进行创新,意味着没有路径可依,要经历很多失败,时间、经济成本都耗费巨大。
On the other hand, the domestic big model rarely involved the innovation at the architecture level, because few people took the initiative to break such a prejudice: the United States is better at technological innovation from 0-1, and China is better at 1-10 Application innovation. Besides, this behavior is very uncomfortable -a new generation model, naturally someone will do it in a few months. As long as Chinese companies follow and do well. Innovating the model structure means that there is no path to rely on, and a lot of failure is to go through a lot of failures. Time and economic costs are huge.

DeepSeek显然是逆行者。在一片认为大模型技术必然趋同,follow是更聪明捷径的喧哗声中,DeepSeek看重“弯路”中积累的价值,并认为中国的大模型创业者除应用创新外,也可以加入到全球技术创新的洪流中。
Deepseek is obviously retrograde. In a piece of big model technology that is inevitable, Follow is the noise of more smart shortcuts. DeepSeek values ​​the value accumulated in the "detours", and believes that in addition to application innovation, Chinese big model entrepreneurs can also join global technological innovation. In the torrent.

DeepSeek的很多抉择都与众不同。截至目前,7家中国大模型创业公司中,它是唯一一家放弃“既要又要”路线,至今专注在研究和技术,未做toC应用的公司,也是唯一一家未全面考虑商业化,坚定选择开源路线甚至都没融过资的公司。这些使得它经常被遗忘在牌桌之外,但在另一端,它又经常在社区被用户“自来水”式传播。
Many of DeepSeek's choices are different. As of now, among the seven major Chinese model startups, it is the only company that has given up the "both must and also" route and is focusing on research and technology. The open source route has not even finished the company. These are often forgotten from the table, but at the other end, it is often spread by users by users in the community.

DeepSeek究竟是如何炼成的?我们为此访谈了甚少露面的DeepSeek创始人梁文锋。
How is DeepSeek made? We interviewed Liang Wenfeng, the founder of Deepseek, who rarely appeared.

这位从幻方时代,就在幕后潜心研究技术的80后创始人,在DeepSeek时代,依旧延续着他的低调作风,和所有研究员一样,每天“看论文,写代码,参与小组讨论”。
This era of post -80s, who has been studying technology behind the scenes, still continues his low -key style in the DEEPSEEK era. Like all researchers, every day, "look at the dissertation, write code, and participate in group discussions."

和很多量化基金创始人都有过海外对冲基金履历,多出身物理、数学等专业不同的是,梁文锋一直是本土背景,早年就读的也是浙江大学电子工程系人工智能方向。
Different from the founders of many quantitative funds have the overseas hedge fund resumes. Different from the majors of physics and mathematics, Liang Wenfeng has always been a local background. In his early years, he also studied artificial intelligence in the Department of Electronic Engineering of Zhejiang University.

多位行业人士和DeepSeek研究员告诉我们,梁文锋是当下中国AI界非常罕见的“兼具强大的infra工程能力和模型研究能力,又能调动资源”、“既可以从高处做精准判断,又可以在细节上强过一线研究员”的人,他拥有“令人恐怖的学习能力”,同时又“完全不像一个老板,而更像一个极客”。
Several industry insiders and deepseek researcher told us that Liang Wenfeng is a very rare "strong Infra engineering ability and model research ability in the Chinese AI industry, but also can mobilize resources." Those who are more than a front -line researcher in details ", he has" terrifying learning ability ", and at the same time," is not like a boss at all, but more like a geek. "

这是一次尤为难得的访谈。访谈里,这位技术理想主义者,提供了目前中国科技界特别稀缺的一种声音:他是少有的把“是非观”置于“利害观”之前,并提醒我们看到时代惯性,把“原创式创新”提上日程的人。
This is a particularly rare interview. In the interview, this technical idealist provides a very scarce voice in the Chinese scientific and technological community: he is rare to put the "right or wrong view" before the "concept of interest", and remind us to see the inertia of the times. "Original Innovation" on the agenda.

一年前,DeepSeek刚下场时,我们初次访谈了梁文锋 :《疯狂的幻方:一家隐形AI巨头的大模型之路》 。如果说当时那句「务必要疯狂地怀抱雄心,且还要疯狂地真诚」还是一句美丽的口号,一年过去,它已经在成为一种行动。
One year ago, when DeepSeek first ended, we first interviewed Liang Wenfeng: "Crazy Fantasy Fang: The Road to a Big Model of an Invisible AI Giant". If the phrase "must be embraced madly, and to be madly sincere" is still a beautiful slogan, one year has passed, it is already becoming a action.

以下为对话部分:  The following is the dialogue part:

价格战第一枪是怎么打响的?  How did the first shot of the price war began?

「暗涌」:DeepSeek V2模型发布后,迅速引发一场血雨腥风的大模型价格战,有人说你们是行业的一条鲶鱼。
"Dark Surge": After the release of the Deepseek V2 model, it quickly triggered a big model price war with a bloody storm. Some people said that you are a catfish in the industry.

梁文锋:我们不是有意成为一条鲶鱼,只是不小心成了一条鲶鱼。
Liang Wenfeng : We don't intend to be a catfish, but we accidentally become a catfish.

「暗涌」:这个结果让你们意外吗?  "Dark": Is this result surprised you?

梁文锋:非常意外。没想到价格让大家这么敏感。我们只是按照自己的步调来做事,然后核算成本定价。我们的原则是不贴钱,也不赚取暴利。这个价格也是在成本之上稍微有点利润。
Liang Wenfeng : Very unexpected. I did not expect the price to be so sensitive. We just do things according to our own pace, and then calculate the cost. Our principles are not money or profit. This price is also a little profitable on the cost.

「暗涌」:5天后智谱AI就跟进了,之后是字节、阿里、百度、腾讯等大厂。
"Dark Surge": After 5 days, the wisdom spectrum AI followed up, and then large factories such as bytes, Ali, Baidu, Tencent and other large manufacturers.

梁文锋:智谱AI降的是一个入门级产品,和我们同级别的模型仍然收费很贵。字节是真正第一个跟进的。旗舰模型降到和我们一样的价格,然后触发了其它大厂纷纷降价。因为大厂的模型成本比我们高很多,所以我们没想到会有人亏钱做这件事,最后就变成了互联网时代的烧钱补贴的逻辑。
Liang Wenfeng : The wisdom spectrum AI reduces an entry -level product, and the model of our same level is still expensive. The byte is the first to follow up. The flagship model dropped to the same price as us, and then triggered other large manufacturers to reduce prices. Because the cost of the model of the big factory is much higher than us, we did not expect that someone would lose money to do this, and finally became the logic of burning subsidies in the Internet era.

「暗涌」:外部看来,降价很像在抢用户,互联网时代的价格战通常如此。
"Dark surge": It seems that the price reduction is very similar to being robbing users. The price war in the Internet era is usually the case.

梁文锋:抢用户并不是我们的主要目的。我们降价一方面是因为我们在探索下一代模型的结构中,成本先降下来了,另一方面也觉得无论API,还是AI,都应该是普惠的、人人可以用得起的东西。
Liang Wenfeng : Raising users is not our main purpose. On the one hand, our price cut is because in the structure of the next generation of models, the cost drops first, and on the other hand, we also feel that both the API or AI should be inclusive and everyone can use things.

「暗涌」:在这之前,大部分中国公司都会直接copy这一代的 Llama结构去做应用,为什么你们会从模型结构切入?
"Dark Surge": Before that, most Chinese companies will directly Copy's LLAMA structure to apply. Why do you cut in from the model structure?

梁文锋:如果目标是做应用,那沿用 Llama结构,短平快上产品也是合理选择。但我们目的地是AGI,这意味着我们需要研究新的模型结构,在有限资源下,实现更强的模型能力。这是scale up到更大模型所需要做的基础研究之一。除了模型结构,我们还做了大量其他的研究,包括怎么构造数据,如何让模型更像人类等,这都体现在我们发布的模型里。另外,Llama的结构,在训练效率和推理成本上,和国外先进水平估计也已有两代差距。
Liang Wenfeng : If the goal is to apply it, the LLAMA structure is used, and the product is also a reasonable choice. But our destination is AGI, which means that we need to study new model structures and achieve stronger model capabilities under limited resources. This is one of the basic research that Scale UP needs to do a larger model. In addition to the model structure, we have also done a lot of other studies, including how to construct data and how to make the model more like humans, which are reflected in the model we posted. In addition, the structure of LLAMA, in terms of training efficiency and reasoning costs, has two generations gap with advanced foreign levels.

「暗涌」:这种代差主要来自哪里?  "Dark Surge": Where does this difference come from?

梁文锋:首先训练效率有差距。我们估计,国内最好的水平和国外最好的相比,模型结构和训练动力学上可能有一倍的差距,光这一点我们要消耗两倍的算力才能达到同样效果。另外数据效率上可能也有一倍差距,也就是我们要消耗两倍的训练数据和算力,才能达到同样的效果。合起来就要多消耗4倍算力。我们要做的,正是不停地去缩小这些差距。
梁文锋:首先训练效率有差距。 We estimate that compared with the best level in China and the best abroad, there may be double the model structure and training dynamics. We have to consume twice the computing power to achieve the same effect. In addition, there may be double gap in data efficiency, that is, we have to consume twice the training data and computing power to achieve the same effect. It takes 4 times more computing power to close. What we have to do is constantly narrowing these gaps.

「暗涌」:大部分中国公司都选择既要模型又要应用,为什么DeepSeek目前选择只做研究探索?
"Dark Yong": Most Chinese companies choose to use both models and application. Why is DeepSeek choose to only do research and exploration?

梁文锋:因为我们觉得现在最重要的是参与到全球创新的浪潮里去。过去很多年,中国公司习惯了别人做技术创新,我们拿过来做应用变现,但这并非是一种理所当然。这一波浪潮里,我们的出发点,就不是趁机赚一笔,而是走到技术的前沿,去推动整个生态发展。
Liang Wenfeng : Because we feel that the most important thing now is to participate in the wave of global innovation. In the past many years, Chinese companies have been accustomed to making technological innovation. We have taken it for application monetization, but this is not a matter of course. In this wave of waves, our starting point is not to take the opportunity to make a fortune, but to the forefront of technology to promote the entire ecological development.

「暗涌」:互联网和移动互联网时代留给大部分人的惯性认知是,美国擅长搞技术创新,中国更擅长做应用。
"Dark Surge": The inertia cognition left by most people in the Internet and mobile Internet era is that the United States is good at engaging in technological innovation and China is better at applying.

梁文锋:我们认为随着经济发展,中国也要逐步成为贡献者,而不是一直搭便车。过去三十多年IT浪潮里,我们基本没有参与到真正的技术创新里。我们已经习惯摩尔定律从天而降,躺在家里18个月就会出来更好的硬件和软件。Scaling Law也在被如此对待。
Liang Wenfeng : We believe that with the development of the economy, China must gradually become contributors, rather than always taking stools. In the IT wave in the past 30 years, we have basically not participated in real technological innovation. We are accustomed to falling from the sky, and we will come out for better hardware and software when we lie at home for 18 months. Scaling Law is also treated like this.

但其实,这是西方主导的技术社区一代代孜孜不倦创造出来的,只因为之前我们没有参与这个过程,以至于忽视了它的存在。
But in fact, this was created by the Western -led technological community generation, because we did not participate in this process before, so that we ignored its existence.

真正的差距不是一年或两年,而是原创和模仿之差  The real gap is not one year or two years, but the difference between original and imitation

「暗涌」:为什么DeepSeek V2会让硅谷的很多人惊讶?
"Dark Surge": Why does DeepSeek V2 surprise many people in Silicon Valley?

梁文锋:在美国每天发生的大量创新里,这是非常普通的一个。他们之所以惊讶,是因为这是一个中国公司,在以创新贡献者的身份,加入到他们游戏里去。毕竟大部分中国公司习惯follow,而不是创新。
Liang Wenfeng : This is a very ordinary one in the large number of innovations in the United States every day. The reason why they were surprised was because it was a Chinese company, joining the game as an innovative contributor to their games. After all, most Chinese companies are used to Follow, not innovation.

「暗涌」:但这种选择放在中国语境里,也过于奢侈。大模型是一个重投入游戏,不是所有公司都有资本只去研究创新,而不是先考虑商业化。
"Dark Surging": But this choice is too luxurious in the context of China. Large models are a heavy -duty game. Not all companies have capital only to research innovation, rather than considering commercialization first.

梁文锋:创新的成本肯定不低,过去那种拿来主义的惯性也和过去的国情有关。但现在,你看无论中国的经济体量,还是字节、腾讯这些大厂的利润,放在全球都不低。我们创新缺的肯定不是资本,而是缺乏信心以及不知道怎么组织高密度的人才实现有效的创新。
Liang Wenfeng : The cost of innovation is definitely not low. The inertia of the past doctrine is also related to the past national conditions. But now, you can see that regardless of China's economy, or the profits of large factories such as bytes and Tencent, it is not low in the world. We must not be capital, but lack confidence and do not know how to organize high -density talents to achieve effective innovation.

「暗涌」:为什么中国公司——包括不缺钱的大厂,这么容易把快速商业化当第一要义?
"Dark Surge": Why does a Chinese company -including a large factory that is not short of money, so it is easy to take fast commercialization as the first priority?

梁文锋:过去三十年,我们都只强调赚钱,对创新是忽视的。创新不完全是商业驱动的,还需要好奇心和创造欲。我们只是被过去那种惯性束缚了,但它也是阶段性的。
Liang Wenfeng : In the past three decades, we have all emphasized to make money and ignore innovation. Innovation is not entirely commercially driven, but also needs curiosity and creativity. We are just bound by the inertia of the past, but it is also staged.

「暗涌」:但你们究竟是一个商业组织,而非一个公益科研机构,选择创新,又通过开源分享出去,那要在哪里形成护城河?像5月这次MLA架构的创新,也会很快被其他家copy吧?
"Dark": But you are a commercial organization, not a public welfare scientific research institution, choose innovation, and share it through open source. Where can you form a moat? Like the innovation of the MLA architecture in May, will it be Copy soon?

梁文锋:在颠覆性的技术面前,闭源形成的护城河是短暂的。即使OpenAI闭源,也无法阻止被别人赶超。所以我们把价值沉淀在团队上,我们的同事在这个过程中得到成长,积累很多know-how,形成可以创新的组织和文化,就是我们的护城河。
Liang Wenfeng : In the face of disruptive technology, the moat formed by the closed source is short. Even if the OpenAI is closed, it cannot be stopped by others. Therefore, we have precipitated value on the team. Our colleagues have grown in the process, accumulating a lot of Know-How, to form an innovative organization and culture, which is our moat.

开源,发论文,其实并没有失去什么。对于技术人员来说,被follow是很有成就感的事。其实,开源更像一个文化行为,而非商业行为。给予其实是一种额外的荣誉。一个公司这么做也会有文化的吸引力。
Open source, papers, actually did not lose anything. For technicians, it is very accomplished by Follow. In fact, open source is more like a cultural behavior, not a business behavior. Giving is actually an additional honor. A company does this will also be attractive.

「暗涌」:你怎么看类似朱啸虎的这种市场信仰派观点?
"Dark": What do you think of the market beliefs like Zhu Xiaohu?

梁文锋:朱啸虎是自洽的,但他的打法更适合快速赚钱的公司,而你看美国最赚钱的公司,都是厚积薄发的高科技公司。
Liang Wenfeng : Zhu Xiaohu is self -consistent, but his play is more suitable for fast -making companies, and you see that the most profitable companies in the United States are high -tech companies.

「暗涌」:但做大模型,单纯的技术领先也很难形成绝对优势,你们赌的那个更大的东西是什么?
"Dark Yong": But when making a big model, it is difficult to form an absolute advantage with simple technical leadership. What is the bigger thing you bet?

梁文锋我们看到的是中国AI不可能永远处在跟随的位置。我们经常说中国AI和美国有一两年差距,但真实的gap是原创和模仿之差。如果这个不改变,中国永远只能是追随者,所以有些探索也是逃不掉的。
Liang Wenfeng : What we see is that China AI cannot always follow. We often say that Chinese AI and the United States have a gap between one or two years, but the real Gap is the difference between original and imitation. If this does not change, China can only be followers, so some explorations cannot escape.

英伟达的领先,不只是一个公司的努力,而是整个西方技术社区和产业共同努力的结果。他们能看到下一代的技术趋势,手里有路线图。中国AI的发展,同样需要这样的生态。很多国产芯片发展不起来,也是因为缺乏配套的技术社区,只有第二手消息,所以中国必然需要有人站到技术的前沿。
Nvidia's lead is not just the efforts of a company, but the result of the joint efforts of the entire Western technology community and industry. They can see the technical trend of the next generation and have a roadmap in their hands. The development of Chinese AI also needs such an ecology. Many domestic chips cannot develop, and because of lack of supporting technology communities, there are only second -hand news, so China must need to stand at the forefront of technology.

更多的投入并不一定产生更多的创新  More investment does not necessarily produce more innovation

「暗涌」:现在的DeepSeek有一种OpenAI早期的理想主义气质,也是开源的。后边你们会选择闭源吗?OpenAI和Mistral都有过从开源到闭源的过程。
"Dark": Now Deepseek has an early idealism of OpenAI, which is also open source. Will you choose to close the source? Both Openai and Mistral have the process from open source to closed sources.

梁文锋:我们不会闭源。我们认为先有一个强大的技术生态更重要。
Liang Wenfeng : We will not close the source. We think it is more important to have a powerful technical ecology.

「暗涌」:你们有融资计划吗?看有媒体报道,幻方对DeepSeek有独立拆分上市的计划,硅谷的AI创业公司,最终也都难免要和大厂绑定。
"Dark": Do you have a financing plan? Seeing media reports, the magic party has a plan to separate the listing of Deepseek. The AI ​​startups in Silicon Valley will inevitably bind to the large manufacturers in the end.

梁文锋:短期内没有融资计划,我们面临的问题从来不是钱,而是高端芯片被禁运。
Liang Wenfeng : There is no financing plan in the short term. The problems we face are never money, but that high -end chips are embarked down.

「暗涌」:很多人认为,做AGI和做量化是完全不同的两件事,量化可以闷声去做,但AGI可能更需要高举高打,需要结盟,这样可以让你的投入变大。
"Dark Surge": Many people think that doing AGI and quantification are two things that are completely different. Quantitatives can be done with a stuffy voice, but AGI may need to hold high beating and all alliances, which can make your investment larger.

梁文锋:更多的投入并不一定产生更多的创新。否则大厂可以把所有的创新包揽了。
Liang Wenfeng : More investment does not necessarily produce more innovation. Otherwise, big manufacturers can take over all innovations.

「暗涌」:你们现在不做应用,是因为你们没有运营的基因吗?
"Undercurrent": You don't make applications now, is it because you don't have the genes to operate?

梁文锋:我们认为当前阶段是技术创新的爆发期,而不是应用的爆发期。长远来说,我们希望形成一种生态,就是业界直接使用我们的技术和产出,我们只负责基础模型和前沿的创新,然后其它公司在DeepSeek 的基础上构建toB、toC的业务。如果能形成完整的产业上下游,我们就没必要自己做应用。当然,如果需要,我们做应用也没障碍,但研究和技术创新永远是我们第一优先级。
Liang Wenfeng : We believe that the current stage is an explosion period of technological innovation, not an explosion period of application. In the long run, we hope to form an ecosystem in which the industry directly uses our technology and output. We are only responsible for basic models and cutting-edge innovations, and then other companies build toB and toC businesses based on DeepSeek. If we can form a complete upstream and downstream industry, we don’t need to make applications ourselves. Of course, if necessary, there is no obstacle for us to apply it, but research and technological innovation will always be our first priority.

「暗涌」:但选择API的话,为什么选择DeepSeek,而不是大厂?
"Undercurrent": But when it comes to choosing API, why choose DeepSeek instead of big manufacturers?

梁文锋:未来的世界很可能是专业化分工的,基础大模型需要持续创新,大厂有它的能力边界,并不一定适合。
Liang Wenfeng : The world of the future is likely to be one of specialization and division of labor. Basic large-scale models require continuous innovation. Large manufacturers have their own capability boundaries and may not necessarily be suitable.

「暗涌」:但技术真的可以拉开差距吗?你也说过并不存在绝对的技术秘密。
"Undercurrent": But can technology really widen the gap? You also said that there is no absolute technical secret.

梁文锋:技术没有秘密,但重置需要时间和成本。英伟达的显卡,理论上没有任何技术秘密,很容易复制,但重新组织团队以及追赶下一代技术都需要时间,所以实际的护城河还是很宽。
Liang Wenfeng : There is no secret in technology, but resetting requires time and cost. Nvidia's graphics cards theoretically do not have any technical secrets and are easy to copy, but it takes time to reorganize the team and catch up with next-generation technology, so the actual moat is still very wide.

「暗涌」:你们降价后,字节率先跟进,说明他们还是感受到某种威胁。你怎么看创业公司与大厂竞争的新解法?
"Undercurrent": After you lowered the price, Byte followed up first, which shows that they still feel some kind of threat. What do you think of the new solution for startups to compete with big companies?

梁文锋:说实话我们不太care这件事,只是顺便做了这件事。提供云服务不是我们的主要目标。我们的目标还是去实现AGI。
Liang Wenfeng : To be honest, we don’t care much about this matter, we just did it by the way. Providing cloud services is not our main goal. Our goal is still to achieve AGI.

目前没有看到什么新解法,但大厂也没有明显占优。大厂有现成的用户,但它的现金流业务也是它的包袱,也会让它成为随时被颠覆的对象。
I haven’t seen any new solutions so far, but the big manufacturers don’t have a clear advantage either. Big manufacturers have ready-made users, but their cash flow business is also a burden, making them vulnerable to subversion at any time.

「暗涌」:你怎么看DeepSeek之外的6家大模型创业公司的终局?
"Undercurrent": What do you think of the outcome of the six large-model startups besides DeepSeek?

梁文锋:可能活下来2到3家。现在都还处在烧钱阶段,所以那些自我定位清晰、更能精细化运营的,更有机会活下来。其它公司可能会脱胎换骨。有价值的东西不会烟消云散,但会换一种方式。
Liang Wenfeng : Maybe 2 to 3 families will survive. We are still in the money-burning stage, so those with clear self-positioning and more refined operations have a better chance of surviving. Other companies may be reinvented. Things of value will not disappear, but they will change.

「暗涌」:幻方时代,面对竞争的姿态就被评价为“我行我素”,很少在意横向比较。关于竞争,你思考的原点是什么?
"Undercurrent": In the era of magic square, the attitude in the face of competition was evaluated as "going one's own way" and rarely paying attention to horizontal comparisons. Regarding competition, what is the starting point of your thinking?

梁文锋:我经常思考的是,一个东西能不能让社会的运行效率变高,以及你能否在它的产业分工链条上找到擅长的位置。只要终局是让社会效率更高,就是成立的。中间很多都是阶段性的,过度关注必然眼花缭乱。
Liang Wenfeng : What I often think about is whether a thing can make society more efficient, and whether you can find a position where you are good at it in its industrial division of labor chain. As long as the end result is to make society more efficient, it is valid. There are many stages in between, and excessive attention will inevitably make you dizzy.

一群做“高深莫测”事的年轻人  A group of young people who do "unfathomable" things

「暗涌」:OpenAI前政策主管、Anthropic联合创始人Jack Clark认为DeepSeek雇佣了“一批高深莫测的奇才”,做出DeepSeek v2的是怎样一群人?
"Undercurrent": Jack Clark, former policy director of OpenAI and co-founder of Anthropic, believes that DeepSeek hired "a group of unpredictable wizards". What kind of people made DeepSeek v2?

梁文锋:并没有什么高深莫测的奇才,都是一些Top高校的应届毕业生、没毕业的博四、博五实习生,还有一些毕业才几年的年轻人。
Liang Wenfeng : There are no mysterious geniuses. They are all recent graduates from top universities, interns with Ph.D. 4 and Ph. 5 who have not graduated, and some young people who have graduated only a few years ago.

「暗涌」:很多大模型公司都执着地去海外挖人,很多人觉得这个领域前50名的顶尖人才可能都不在中国的公司,你们的人都来自哪里?
"Undercurrent": Many large model companies are persistent in poaching people overseas. Many people think that the top 50 talents in this field may not be in Chinese companies. Where do your people come from?

梁文锋:V2模型没有海外回来的人,都是本土的。前50名顶尖人才可能不在中国,但也许我们能自己打造这样的人。
Liang Wenfeng : There are no people who came back from overseas in the V2 model, they are all local. The top 50 talents may not be in China, but maybe we can build such people ourselves.

「暗涌」:这次MLA创新是如何发生的?听说idea最早来自一个年轻研究员的个人兴趣?
"Undercurrent": How did this MLA innovation happen? I heard that the idea first came from the personal interest of a young researcher?

梁文锋:在总结出Attention架构的一些主流变迁规律后,他突发奇想去设计一个替代方案。不过从想法到落地,中间是一个漫长的过程。我们为此组了一个team,花了几个月时间才跑通。
Liang Wenfeng : After summarizing some mainstream changes in the Attention architecture, he suddenly wanted to design an alternative. However, it is a long process from idea to implementation. We formed a team for this and it took us several months to get through it.

「暗涌」:这种发散性灵感的诞生和你们完全创新型组织的架构很有关系。幻方时代,你们就很少自上而下地指派目标或任务。但AGI这种充满不确定性的前沿探索,是否多了管理动作?
"Undercurrent": The birth of this divergent inspiration is closely related to the structure of your completely innovative organization. In the Magic Square era, you rarely assign goals or tasks from top to bottom. But does AGI, a frontier exploration full of uncertainty, require more management actions?

梁文锋:DeepSeek也全是自下而上。而且我们一般不前置分工,而是自然分工。每个人有自己独特的成长经历,都是自带想法的,不需要push他。探索过程中,他遇到问题,自己就会拉人讨论。不过当一个idea显示出潜力,我们也会自上而下地去调配资源。
Liang Wenfeng : DeepSeek is also all bottom-up. Moreover, we generally do not pre-position division of labor, but natural division of labor. Everyone has their own unique growth experience and comes with their own ideas, so there is no need to push them. During the exploration process, when he encounters problems, he will invite others to discuss them. But when an idea shows potential, we will allocate resources from top to bottom.

「暗涌」:听说DeepSeek对于卡和人的调集非常灵活。
"Undercurrent": I heard that DeepSeek is very flexible in mobilizing cards and people.

梁文锋:我们每个人对于卡和人的调动是不设上限的。如果有想法,每个人随时可以调用训练集群的卡无需审批。同时因为不存在层级和跨部门,也可以灵活调用所有人,只要对方也有兴趣。
Liang Wenfeng : There is no upper limit for each of us to transfer cards and people. If you have an idea, everyone can call the card of the training cluster at any time without approval. At the same time, because there are no hierarchies or cross-departments, everyone can be flexibly called as long as the other party is also interested.

「暗涌」:一种松散的管理方式也取决于你们筛选到了一批强热爱驱动的人。听说你们很擅长从细节招人, 可以让一些非传统评价指标里优秀的人被选出来。
"Undercurrent": A loose management method also depends on you selecting a group of people who are driven by strong love. I heard that you are very good at recruiting people based on details, and can select some outstanding people based on non-traditional evaluation indicators.

梁文锋:我们选人的标准一直都是热爱和好奇心,所以很多人会有一些奇特的经历,很有意思。很多人对做研究的渴望,远超对钱的在意。
Liang Wenfeng : The criteria for choosing people have always been love and curiosity, so many people will have some strange experiences, which are very interesting. Many people's desire for research far exceeds their care of money.

「暗涌」: transformer诞生在谷歌的AI Lab,ChatGPT诞生在OpenAI,你觉得大公司的AILab 和一个创业公司对于创新产生的价值有什么不同?
"Undercurrent": Transformer was born in Google's AI Lab, and ChatGPT was born in OpenAI. What do you think is the difference in the value of innovation between a large company's AILab and a startup company?

梁文锋:不管是Google实验室,还是OpenAI,甚至中国大厂的AI Lab,都很有价值的。最后是OpenAI做出来,也有历史的偶然性。
Liang Wenfeng : Whether it is Google Labs, OpenAI, or even the AI ​​Labs of major Chinese companies, they are all valuable. In the end, OpenAI made it, and it was also a historical accident.

「暗涌」:创新很大程度也是一种偶然吗?我看你们办公区中间那排会议室左右两侧都设置了可以随意推开的门。你们同事说,这就是给偶然留出空隙。transfomer诞生中就发生过那种偶然经过的人听到后加入,最终把它变成一个通用框架的故事。
"Undercurrent": Is innovation largely an accident? I see that the row of conference rooms in the middle of your office area has doors on the left and right that can be pushed open at will. Your colleagues said that this is to leave room for chance. In the birth of transformer, there was a story where people passing by by chance heard about it and joined in, eventually turning it into a universal framework.

梁文锋:我觉得创新首先是一个信念问题。为什么硅谷那么有创新精神?首先是敢。Chatgpt出来时,整个国内对做前沿创新都缺乏信心,从投资人到大厂,都觉得差距太大了,还是做应用吧。但创新首先需要自信。这种信心通常在年轻人身上更明显。
Liang Wenfeng : I think innovation is first of all a matter of belief. Why is Silicon Valley so innovative? The first is to dare. When Chatgpt came out, the entire country lacked confidence in cutting-edge innovation. From investors to large manufacturers, everyone felt that the gap was too big, so they should just make applications. But innovation first requires confidence. This confidence is usually more pronounced in younger people.

「暗涌」:但你们不参与融资,很少对外发声,社会声量上肯定不如那些融资活跃的公司,怎么确保DeepSeek就是做大模型的人的首选?
"Undercurrent": But you don't participate in financing, rarely speak out to the outside world, and your social voice is definitely not as good as those companies that are active in financing. How can you ensure that DeepSeek is the first choice for people who want to build large models?

梁文锋:因为我们在做最难的事。对顶级人才吸引最大的,肯定是去解决世界上最难的问题。其实,顶尖人才在中国是被低估的。因为整个社会层面的硬核创新太少了,使得他们没有机会被识别出来。我们在做最难的事,对他们就是有吸引力的。
Liang Wenfeng : Because we are doing the most difficult thing. What attracts top talents the most is definitely solving the world’s most difficult problems. In fact, top talents are underestimated in China. Because there are too few hard-core innovations at the entire social level, they have no chance to be identified. We are doing the most difficult thing, which is attractive to them.

「暗涌」:前一段OpenAI的发布并没有等来GPT5,很多人觉得这是技术曲线明显在放缓,也很多人开始质疑Scaling Law,你们怎么看?
"Undercurrent": The release of OpenAI some time ago did not wait for GPT5. Many people think that the technology curve is obviously slowing down, and many people are beginning to question the Scaling Law. What do you think?

梁文锋:我们偏乐观,整个行业看起来都符合预期。OpenAI也不是神,不可能一直冲在前面。
Liang Wenfeng : We are optimistic, and the entire industry seems to meet expectations. Openai is not a god, it is impossible to rush ahead.

「暗涌」:你觉得AGI还要多久实现,发布DeepSeek V2前,你们发布过代码生成和数学的模型,也从dense模型切换到了MOE,所以你们的AGI路线图有哪些坐标?
"Undercurrent": How long do you think it will take for AGI to be realized? Before releasing DeepSeek V2, you released code generation and mathematical models, and also switched from dense models to MOE. So what are the coordinates of your AGI roadmap?

梁文锋:可能是2年、5年或者10年,总之会在我们有生之年实现。至于路线图,即使在我们公司内部,也没有统一意见。但我们确实押注了三个方向。一是数学和代码,二是多模态,三是自然语言本身。数学和代码是AGI天然的试验场,有点像围棋,是一个封闭的、可验证的系统,有可能通过自我学习就能实现很高的智能。另一方面,可能多模态、参与到人类的真实世界里学习,对AGI也是必要的。我们对一切可能性都保持开放。
Liang Wenfeng : It may be 2 years, 5 years or 10 years. In short, it will be realized in our lifetime. As for the roadmap, even within our company, there is no consensus. But we did bet in three directions. One is mathematics and code, the second is multimodality, and the third is natural language itself. Mathematics and code are the natural testing ground for AGI. It is a bit like Go. It is a closed and verifiable system, and it is possible to achieve high intelligence through self-learning. On the other hand, multi-modal learning that involves humans in the real world may also be necessary for AGI. We are open to all possibilities.

「暗涌」:你觉得大模型终局是什么样态?  "Undercurrent": What do you think the ending of the big model will be like?

梁文锋:会有专门公司提供基础模型和基础服务,会有很长链条的专业分工。更多人在之上去满足整个社会多样化的需求。
Liang Wenfeng : There will be specialized companies providing basic models and basic services, and there will be a long chain of professional division of labor. More people can meet the diverse needs of society as a whole.

所有的套路都是上一代的产物  All routines are products of the previous generation

「暗涌」:过去这一年,中国的大模型创业还是有很多变化的,比如去年开头还很活跃的王慧文中场退出了,后来加入的公司也开始呈现出差异化。
"Undercurrent": In the past year, there have been many changes in China's large model entrepreneurship. For example, Wang Huiwen, who was active at the beginning of last year, withdrew from the company mid-term, and the companies he joined later began to show differentiation.

梁文锋:王慧文自己承担了所有的损失,让其他人全身而退。他做了一个对自己最不利,但对大家都好的选择,所以他做人是很厚道的,这点我很佩服。
Liang Wenfeng : Wang Huiwen took all the losses and let others escape unscathed. He made a choice that was most detrimental to himself but best for everyone, so he is a very kind person, which I admire very much.

「暗涌」:现在你的精力最多放在哪里?  "Undercurrent": Where do you focus most of your energy now?

梁文锋:主要的精力在研究下一代的大模型。还有很多未解决的问题。
Liang Wenfeng : The main focus is on researching the next generation of large models. There are still many unanswered questions.

「暗涌」:其他几家大模型创业公司都是坚持既要又要,毕竟技术不会带来永久领先,抓住时间窗口把技术优势落到产品也很重要,DeepSeek敢于专注在模型研究上是因为模型能力还不够吗?
"Undercurrent": Several other large model startups insist on having both. After all, technology will not bring permanent leadership. It is also important to seize the time window to put the technical advantages into products. DeepSeek dares to focus on model research. Is it because the model capability is not enough?

梁文锋:所有的套路都是上一代的产物,未来不一定成立。拿互联网的商业逻辑去讨论未来AI的盈利模式,就像马化腾创业时,你去讨论通用电气和可口可乐一样。很可能是一种刻舟求剑。
Liang Wenfeng : All routines are products of the previous generation and may not be valid in the future. Use the business logic of the Internet to discuss the future profit model of AI, just like when Ma Huateng started his business, you discussed General Electric and Coca-Cola. It is probably a kind of carving a boat to seek a sword.

「暗涌」:过去幻方就有很强的技术和创新基因,成长也比较顺利,这是你偏乐观的原因吗?
"Undercurrent": In the past, Huanfang had strong technology and innovation genes, and its growth was relatively smooth. Is this why you are optimistic?

梁文锋:幻方某种程度上增强了我们对技术驱动型创新的信心,但也不都是坦途。我们经历了一个漫长的积累过程。外部看到的是幻方2015年后的部分,但其实我们做了16年。
Liang Wenfeng : Magic Square has enhanced our confidence in technology-driven innovation to some extent, but it is not always a smooth road. We have gone through a long accumulation process. What we see from the outside is the part of Magic Square after 2015, but in fact we have been doing it for 16 years.

「暗涌」:回到关于原创式创新的话题。现在经济开始进入下行,资本也进入冷周期,所以它对原创式创新是否会带来更多抑制?
"Dark": Back to the topic about original innovation. Now that the economy has begun to fall, capital also enters the cold cycle, so will it bring more suppression of original innovation?

梁文锋:我倒觉得未必。中国产业结构的调整,会更依赖硬核技术的创新。当很多人发现过去赚快钱很可能来自时代运气,就会更愿意俯身去做真正的创新。
Liang Wenfeng : I don't think it is necessary. The adjustment of China's industrial structure will rely more on the innovation of hardcore technology. When many people find that in the past, they are likely to come from the times, and they will be more willing to lean down to do real innovation.

「暗涌」:所以你对这件事也是乐观的?  "Dark Surging": So are you optimistic about this?

梁文锋:我是八十年代在广东一个五线城市长大的。我的父亲是小学老师,九十年代,广东赚钱机会很多,当时有不少家长到我家里来,基本就是家长觉得读书没用。但现在回去看,观念都变了。因为钱不好赚了,连开出租车的机会可能都没了。一代人的时间就变了。
Liang Wenfeng : I grew up in a fifth -tier city in Guangdong in the 1980s. My father was a primary school teacher. In the 1990s, there were many opportunities to make money in Guangdong. At that time, many parents came to my house. Basically, parents felt that reading was useless. But now when I go back, my concept has changed. Because the money is not easy to make, even the chance of driving a taxi may be gone. The time of a generation has changed.

以后硬核创新会越来越多。现在可能还不容易被理解,是因为整个社会群体需要被事实教育。当这个社会让硬核创新的人功成名就,群体性想法就会改变。我们只是还需要一堆事实和一个过程。
There will be more and more hard-core innovations in the future. It may not be easy to understand now because the entire social group needs to be educated on the facts. When this society allows hard-core innovative people to become successful, group thinking will change. We just need a bunch of facts and a process.

评论

此博客中的热门博文

2026年中央一号文件(全文)

                                                                         中共中央 国务院 关于锚定农业农村现代化 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见 (2026年1月3日) 农业农村现代化关系中国式现代化全局和成色。“十四五”时期,农业综合生产能力迈上新台阶,脱贫攻坚成果巩固拓展,农民生活水平显著提高,乡村全面振兴取得明显进展。“十五五”时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期,要加快补上农业农村领域突出短板,加快建设农业强国。2026年是“十五五”开局之年,做好“三农”工作至关重要。要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神,认真落实四中全会部署,全面贯彻习近平总书记关于“三农”工作的重要论述和重要指示精神,坚持把解决好“三农”问题作为全党工作重中之重,坚持和加强党对“三农”工作的全面领导,完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,坚持农业农村优先发展,坚持城乡融合发展,锚定农业农村现代化,以推进乡村全面振兴为总抓手,以学习运用“千万工程”经验为引领,以改革创新为根本动力,提高强农惠农富农政策效能,守牢国家粮食安全底线,持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,提升乡村产业发展水平、乡村建设水平、乡村治理水平,努力把农业建成现代化大产业、使农村基本具备现代生活条件、让农民生活更加富裕美好,为推进中国式现代化提供基础支撑。 一、提升农业综合生产能力和质量效益 (一)稳定发展粮油生产。粮食产量稳定在1.4万亿斤左右。坚持产量产能、生产生态、增产增收一起抓,加力实施新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动,促进良田良种良机良法集成增效,推进粮油作物大面积提单产。因地制宜优化农业生产结构和区域布局,推动粮食品种培优和品质提升,实施粮食流通提质增效项目,促进适销对路、优质优价。巩固提升大豆产能,做好产销衔接...

为什么在历史上最大的供应冲击之后,油价还没有达到200美元?

  几十年来,石油贸易商、高管和分析师一直警告说,关闭霍尔木兹海峡将是一场全球经济灾难。 自该航道被有效阻断以来,已经过去了三个多月,造成了现代史上最严重的供应冲击。但一系列变通措施使原油价格保持在每桶100美元以下,这与业内许多悲观预测(油价可能高达每桶200美元)截然相反。 美国出口创纪录、中国需求急剧且出乎意料地放缓,以及仍有少量原油通过霍尔木兹海峡稳定输送,这些因素共同缓解了中东原油日供应减少超过1000万桶带来的冲击。战前积累的原油盈余也减轻了这一打击。 6月5日,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在空军一号上与媒体成员交谈。摄影:Samuel Corum/Getty Images “人们原本以为情况会更糟,”唐纳德·特朗普总统周五表示。“今天我看到油价是每桶96美元,人们之前以为会涨到每桶300美元。” 现在所有人的目光都集中在这些缓冲措施能维持多久,而何时才能恢复海峡的油气流动以及油价走向,已成为全球经济最大的不确定因素。 石油市场最大的意外之一是全球最大进口国中国。据Vortexa Ltd.的数据显示,5月份中国石油进口量较去年同期平均水平下降了近40%。根据不同的估算方法,这一降幅足以抵消战争造成的石油产量损失的三分之一到五分之一。 与此同时,自2月底对伊朗发动空袭以来,美国已成为全球最重要的能源供应国。5月份美国原油和燃料出口量比去年全年平均水平高出200多万桶/日。 其他紧急措施也缓解了紧张局势。世界各国政府协调释放了历史性的战略储备,而海湾产油国则通过其他出口路线改道运输。尽管风险重重,一些油轮仍继续经由海峡运输货物,并采用日益隐蔽的方式来规避军事威胁。 “这场冲突已经持续三个多月了,世界展现出了惊人的韧性,” 希腊最大的船东集团Angelicoussis集团首席执行官玛丽亚·安杰利库西斯 本周罕见地公开表示,“大宗商品价格上涨了50%到60%,亚洲液化天然气价格上涨了90%,但至少没有达到我个人预期的那种高得离谱的水平。” 目前,油价远低于 每桶 200美元 ,许多分析师认为这一水平仍然较低(参见麦格理银行油价展望和法国兴业银行基准分析) ,这使得特朗普在与伊朗的谈判中留有回旋余地,尽管他一再坚称和平协议指日可待。但如果油价再次持续飙升,将给白宫带来更大压力,迫使其尽快达成协议,以遏制油价对全球经济的冲击。 全球库存正以创纪录的速度下降,使得市...

付鹏11月24日在HSBC内部演讲速记

《2024年年终回顾和2025年展望——对冲风险VS软着陆》   上篇 正值年底,虽然刚才汇丰一直强调大家不录音不录像,但大概率你挡不住。我在这儿讲话会谨慎一些,非常小心谨慎,大概率会有人透露出去,放到YouTube上,基本上所有见我都说付总我在YouTube上看过你的视频,我说那都是盗版的,靠盗版发财的也不少。 今天和大家分享的内容基本上都是官方的,回顾会多一点,展望不多,因为这个月展望完了之后下个月怎么办?有些话对我来讲我倒觉得很简单,本质上原来我们是做Hedge Fund出身,所以我们的逻辑框架整体具有极强的延续性,不是说今年去讨论,或者说明年去讨论。 惯性思维从2016年开始,我一直在跟大家强调这个世界已经完全不一样了。当然经历过过去的几年时间,我相信在座各位应该对这番话的理解变得越发深刻。 2016年实际上是美国特朗普的第一次大选,我有一个特点,我的特征是如果我觉得什么地方有投资机会,我可能第一时间去一线调研,我不喜欢看YouTube,我也不喜欢在网上扒。当然你会说,现在ChatGPT很强大了,人工智能好像能帮你解决很多问题,但你们有没有想过,可能广泛流传或者广泛传播的很多信息是错的。这一点在2012年当时我从日本做完调研回来之后,我的感悟是最深的。 当然去日本有一个重要的人物,名字叫本森特,很快大家就会非常熟悉他的,目前来讲应该是特朗普政府提名的美国财长。本森特原来是索罗斯基金实际掌控人,因为索大爷已经年龄很大了,去年的时候才刚刚把基金的业务交给他儿子亚历山大,但在这之前,最主要的几场战役本质上来讲都是本森特在主导。 2012年当时我从北京去香港约朋友们吃饭的饭局上,当时斯索罗斯基金在香港办公室跟我说,本森特从这儿去了日本。我说OK。我经常说一句话“站在巨人的肩膀上看问题。” 当然你知道,网民们最可怕的地方是巴菲特“SB”、索罗斯“SB”,我最“牛逼”。你要记住,他们的所有行为一定有很大的变化,很多人可能都不知道,巴菲特第一次去是2011年,我们正在讲福岛核电站泄漏,核废水污染以后海鲜不能吃的时候,一个80多岁的老头顶着核辐射泄漏去日本吃海鲜了,当然他去日本干吗,这其实很关键。 之后我们跑到日本做完调研回来之后那几年,我陆陆续续跟很多人讲,日本正在发生变化,日本的利率结构都会随之变化的,当然包括日本的证券市场。今年日本股市终于走出这35年了,创下...

股市能否消化 Anthropico、SpaceX 和 OpenAI 这三家公司?

 经济学人: 它们有望 成为史上规模最大的股市首秀。据报道,SpaceX计划于6月11日发行股票,并于次日在纳斯达克交易所开始交易,目标是从投资者那里筹集750亿美元。埃隆·马斯克的火箭公司SpaceX之后,可能很快会有另外两家巨头公司上市。人工智能实验室Anthropic已于6月1日提交了首次公开募股(IPO)的申请文件草案;其竞争对手OpenAI 预计 也将很快提交。据传,这两家公司都计划各自筹集高达600亿美元的资金。这三家巨头公司的 IPO 加起来,可能在短短几个月内为美国上市公司的总市值增加高达4万亿美元。 股市究竟将如何应对?各大媒体纷纷预测将出现“交易狂潮”。全球最大的在线交易平台之一盈透证券(Interactive Brokers)的首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克(Steve Sosnik)警告称,这些公司上市将带来“生存风险”。尤其令人担忧的是,股票指数编制机构可能会允许这三家巨头快速纳入其基准指数。这将促使管理着数万亿美元资产的追踪基金在股票发行后的几天内就大量买入。在大量买家迅速涌入之后,谁还能继续抢购呢? 答案是:大量投资者涌入一个极其庞大且流动性极强的市场。尽管如此大规模的IPO 发行史无前例 ,但美国非凡的股市终将消化这些资金。不过,在接下来的几年里,市场可能会出现一些消化不良的迹象。 首先,我们需要了解一下这些巨型 IPO 的规模。按名义金额计算,目前IPO融资额的最高纪录保持者是沙特阿美,该公司于2019年在利雅得上市,融资额为290亿美元(按今天的币值计算约为380亿美元)。SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI三家公司 合计目标融资额约为2000亿美元。然而,这与美国股市相比只是九牛一毛。罗素3000指数成分股公司的总市值高达79万亿美元;而 标 普500指数成分股公司的总市值也达到了69万亿美元(尽管标 普 500指数成分股 公司数量较少,但追踪范围更广) 。 因此,指数基金的投资者不会立即看到他们的投资组合发生太大变化。尽管纳斯达克已将纳入指数前的“等待期”缩短至15个交易日, 富时 罗素也已将其等待时间缩短至5天(据 报道,标普 道琼斯 指数 也在考虑类似措施),但大多数股票指数仅根据公司已发行公开交易的股票价值(“自由流通股”)来确定权重。对于SpaceX而言,这意味着仅考虑其计划在6月份发行的约750亿美元股...

中国国家队计划在上半年减持90%的ETF股份

  据彭博行业研究分析,中国所谓的 “国家队” 在2026年上半年将其持有的追踪国内股票的交易所交易基金(ETF)的份额削减约90%。 分析发现,由中国主权财富基金旗下机构牵头的国有投资者集团已抛售约1700亿美元的2026年到期ETF,其中自4月初以来已抛售300亿美元。这波抛售潮表明,投资者仍在努力抑制市场泡沫,此举可能给沪深300 指数带来压力 。 彭博行业研究分析师Rebecca Sin 在一份报告中指出,中央汇金投资有限公司和其他国家队成员减持ETF持仓,从长远来看可能是一个利好因素,因为它降低了进一步抛售的可能性。 此次减持已将该集团在多只ETF中的持仓比例降至 20%以下 ,这意味着这些持仓不再需要披露。 阅读: 中国国家队退出ETF可能接近尾声,或将提振沪深300指数 分析师表示:“全面清算可能至少需要八周时间,但我们预计减持幅度将达到约90%,这将使他们的持股比例保持在披露门槛以下,这一点至关重要。他们不希望出现在上半年的股东名单中,因为大多数主权财富基金都不喜欢公开其投资活动。” 今年以来,沪深 300指数 累计上涨3.3%,而MSCI 亚太 指数则上涨了17%。与大盘走势平淡形成鲜明对比的是,科技股指数表现强劲,创业板指数在本月初创下历史新高。 国家队已大幅减持了部分国内规模最大的ETF基金。分析 发现 ,CSI 300指数基金是该队目前仍持有大量股份的唯一主要指数,这意味着其减持进程更为漫长。 国家队的销售被其他一些来源增加的购买所抵消。股市散户开户及 观点综述:中国社融已经下行压力犹存资金价格或从偏低位置温和放缓非银行金融机构 存款 增加 为大盘提供支撑。 根据彭博社的计算,上个月 海外投资者也是中国股票的净买家。 “尽管ETF出现赎回,但整体市场指标依然非常强劲,流动性并未受到显著影响,” 摩根大通驻上海中国股票策略师张艾琳表示 。“这是一个积极的信号,表明支撑市场韧性的正是内在的、自我维持的力量,即便一些投资者想要获利了结。”

科技股抛售潮,比特币下跌考验散户投资者信心,SpaceX IPO 即将到来

  多年来, 华尔街 一直受益于现代市场中最可靠的力量之一:一支愿意购买几乎任何东西的散户交易员大军。 周五的市场行情让我们得以一窥当多种交易 同时 承压时会发生什么。人工智能股票遭遇数月来最严重的抛售,比特币跌破6万美元,债券收益率飙升,因为交易员们重新押注美联储的下一步举措可能是加息。 这使得 SpaceX 的到来——以及可能成为历史上规模最大的 IPO——成为对投机资本下一步流向的最清晰的考验之一。 争夺资金的投资机会从未如此之多。先是加密货币,然后是网络迷因股票,接着是零日期权、杠杆ETF、人工智能代理和预测市场——每一种都拥有日益复杂的基础设施。 其中最引人注目的当属埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX公司。这家火箭、卫星和人工智能公司的股票 需求 似乎非常旺盛。但本周一些市场热门投机交易的大幅波动,使其上市计划变得复杂起来,也引发了人们对 散户投资者风险承受能力 以及他们选择将资金投入何处的疑问。 F/m Investments 的Alex Morris 表示:“这感觉像是科技行业的一次震荡,也进一步提醒我们,像比特币和 SpaceX 这样的投机性资产有时会迅速消退,价值也会迅速下降。SpaceX 尽管其火箭和卫星互联网技术真实可靠,而且非常酷炫,但它也无法幸免。” 拐点? 过去,创纪录的首次公开募股(IPO)本应主导成长型投资领域。然而,SpaceX如今进入的市场却充斥着各种风险投资方式,而且在经历了投机热潮之后,普通投资者的准入门槛也越来越低。 当前市场可能正处于转折点之际,投资者们对这一新宠儿的迷恋还能持续多久,还有待观察。 Interactive Brokers首席策略师 Steve Sosnick 表示:“周五的下跌提醒我们,抛物线式的行情本质上是不稳定的,其结束时间也难以预测,尤其是在大量投资者将风险等同于回报,而不是将其视为风险与回报平衡的一部分时。” 如果本周的暴跌持续下去,即使是散户投资者也可能面临承受极限。加密货币市场已经遭受重创,比特币自美国总统 唐纳德·特朗普 连任以来的所有涨幅都已回吐。 至于科技股,纳斯达克100指数周五下跌5%,创一年多来最大跌幅——但考虑到这些股票在经历了数月的上涨并屡创新高之后,回调在所难免。强于预期的美国劳工报告成为此次暴跌的催化剂,加剧了市场对加息的预期。 “在连续九周上涨且仓位接近饱和之后,抛售的迹象...

华尔街对SpaceX的狂热有失体面

 THE ICK 这个词在Z世代约会者中流行起来,指的是暗恋对象做出一些无关紧要却又令人尴尬的举动后,导致对方失去兴趣。美国金融界的拥趸们或许正深有同感。在 SpaceX公司定于6月12日进行首次公开​​募股( IPO )之前 ,金融界似乎正竭尽全力地争取这家火箭公司老板、即将成为世界首位万亿富翁的埃隆·马斯克。资产管理公司富达(Fidelity)已将小投资者参与SpaceX上市的最低账户余额从10万至50万美元降至2000美元。纳斯达克和 富时 罗素也将加快SpaceX被纳入其热门股票市场指数的步伐。 恐怕没有哪个群体比美国的投资银行家们更自降身份了。高盛和摩根士丹利的办公大厅里摆满了装饰性的航天器模型和横幅。美国银行位于市中心的总部大楼尖顶被灯光照亮,呈现出火箭发射升空的景象。摩根大通的老板,这位曾经与SpaceX脾气火爆的 CEO 有过节的人,竟然在众多富有的客户面前,热情地接待了他,并对他进行了亲切的采访。 如果这让你觉得不舒服,那么银行家们对SpaceX业务的描述简直令人作呕。据称,高盛预计SpaceX旗下 人工智能 部门(目前在人工智能竞赛中还处于落后地位)的收入将从2025年的30亿美元飙升至2030年的3220亿美元。摩根士丹利则认为,到2040年,SpaceX的销售额和营业利润(不计折旧和摊销)将分别达到3.4万亿美元和2.7万亿美元,而去年这两项数据分别为190亿美元和70亿美元。 为了获得丰厚的佣金,阿谀奉承似乎也算不上什么代价。据报道,SpaceX计划向顾问支付交易收益的0.75%左右。如果SpaceX以1.8万亿美元的估值出售价值750亿美元的股票,那么其承销商将净赚超过5亿美元。这相当于去年美国银行此类融资总额的20%以上。 两家领先的 人工智能实验室Anthropic和 OpenAI 刚刚提交了类似规模的上市申请,预计它们也将获得类似的奉承。 不过,与交易规模相比,银行家的佣金简直微不足道。大型上市项目的佣金通常低于所有 IPO 7%的长期平均水平。即便如此,低于1%的佣金也少得可怜。2010年,高盛同意支付0.75%的佣金帮助通用汽车重新上市,这被视为对美国政府的一种恩惠,因为美国政府在救助通用汽车后正试图摆脱这家汽车制造商。 更糟糕的是,SpaceX 限制了其银行家的权力,将高达 30% 的发行份额预留给散户投资者,并设定...

美国新兴金融公司简街(Jane Street)资本介绍

简街是一家新兴的美国金融公司,成立于2000年,总部位于纽约,由蒂姆·雷诺兹(Tim Reynolds)和罗伯特·格兰诺夫(Robert Granovetter)等创立。它是一家量化交易公司,专注于高频交易(High-Frequency Trading, HFT)、市场制造(Market Making)和流动性提供,尤其在交易所交易基金(ETF)、债券、股票、期权和衍生品等领域表现出色。截至2025年5月,简街已成为全球金融市场中一支重要力量,其交易量在某些市场(如美国ETF市场)占据主导地位。 核心业务 : 市场制造 :简街通过提供买卖双方的报价,为市场提供流动性,尤其在ETF和固定收益产品领域表现突出。它利用复杂的算法和数学模型,确保在高波动市场中仍能提供高效的流动性。例如,2020年市场动荡期间,简街在债券ETF市场提供了关键流动性,防止了潜在的“流动性末日循环”( Jane Street: the top Wall Street firm ‘no one’s heard of’ )。 量化交易 :简街依赖量化策略,通过大数据分析和算法模型进行交易决策,追求低风险、高回报的投资机会。其交易策略通常基于统计套利和市场中性,尽量减少市场风险敞口。 技术驱动 :简街的交易系统高度依赖自主开发的软件和硬件,其技术平台能够处理海量的市场数据,并在微秒级别执行交易。几乎所有软件都使用OCaml编程语言编写,代码库约7000万行,体现了其技术深度( Jane Street Capital - Wikipedia )。 全球布局 :除了纽约总部,简街在伦敦、香港、新加坡和阿姆斯特丹设有办公室,覆盖全球主要金融市场。2025年3月,简街计划大幅扩展其香港办公室空间,显示其对亚洲市场的重视( US trading firm Jane Street seeks to rapidly expand Hong Kong office space - Reuters )。 公司文化与特色 : 技术与数学导向 :简街的员工多为数学、计算机科学或工程背景的顶尖人才,公司内部强调严谨的逻辑思维和概率分析。其招聘过程极为严格,录用率不到1%,重点招聘数学、计算机科学和金融领域的顶尖人才( Debunking The Myth: Is Jane Street A Hedge Fund? )。 低调...

科技热潮引发中国陷入困境的消费基金重组

  由于需求 持续低迷,中国受重创的消费类基金正出现转向科技领域的迹象, 迫使即使是该行业最坚定的支持者也重新思考其投资策略。 例如,中国最大的主动管理型基金—— 易蓝筹精选混合基金(E Fund Blue Chip Selected Mixed Fund) 本周任命何益诚 为 联席经理。 该基金长期持有贵州茅台、百胜中国等消费类股票。 何益诚以其对光通信元件制造商(如易光联科技)以及芯片相关企业(如昆山威士印刷电路股份有限公司)的看好而闻名,这些 公司也 出现在他管理的其他投资组合中。 类似的转变也在景顺长城国内需求增长基金 中发生。 该基金近期 任命了 一位新的基金经理,其现有投资组合主要集中在科技股,包括中芯国际和人工智能芯片设计公司寒武纪科技。 总而言之,这些人员变动凸显了消费板块的衰落。消费板块曾被视为押注中国中产阶级崛起的长期防御型投资标的,但在经历了多年的 消费疲软、房地产市场低迷和持续的通缩压力后,其吸引力已然丧失。随着 必需消费品股票 指数 连续第六年下跌,投资者正转向半导体和人工智能等 更热门的领域 。 晨星中国高级分析师戴静霞表示:“这些举措反映了以消费为导向的基金面临的压力,包括业绩下滑、赎回增加和募资困难。这些举措的部分目的是为了拓宽研究视野,并引入更多元化的投资风格。” 对于部分基金,例如 北京银行丰业银行新兴消费混合基金 ,投资组合调整似乎已经开始。文件显示,该基金近几个季度已减持海尔智能家居和河北洋源智汇饮料等股票,转而增持 中基创新科技股份有限公司 。 所谓 “风格漂移”或将影响下一轮价值基金的阿尔法周期 ——即基金偏离其既定的投资策略——通常被视为追逐业绩的迹象,并且在过去往往与市场转折点相吻合。奇怪的是,消费板块如今却发现自己正处于几年前曾受益于该策略的反面。 在白酒股热潮 的最后阶段 ——贵州茅台的股价从疫情暴跌中反弹超过一倍,并在2021年初创下历史新高——许多投资标的并非消费领域的共同基金 纷纷涌入 白酒股,试图搭上这波上涨的顺风车。如今,该公司股价已较峰值下跌约50%。 据彭博社汇编的数据显示,蓝筹基金五年前资产规模接近900亿元人民币(133亿美元),而截至3月底,其管理的资产规模仅约为270亿元人民币。 “委任具有不同专业领域的基金经理共同管理投资组合,有助于带来互补的视角,提升投资者的体验。”易发基金的一位...

随着就业市场推动美联储加息预期,新任主席沃什面临的压力越来越大

  周五公布的强劲就业数据显示,美国劳动力市场已经恢复正常,这引发了人们对通胀再次抬头的担忧,并强化了一些美联储官员的观点,即他们可能需要在今年晚些时候提高利率。 对于新上任的美联储主席 凯文·沃什来说 ,不断变化的经济前景是对他能否说服市场相信他有能力控制物价,同时抵御白宫要求降低借贷成本的压力的一次早期考验。 美联储观察人士表示,当他于6月16日至17日主持首次政策会议时,最容易的部分是避免在会后声明中透露任何近期降息的迹象。难点在于如何表明他计划如何抑制通胀。 “凯文·沃什必须在通胀问题上拿出强硬立场,” 海军联邦信贷联盟首席经济学家希瑟·朗表示 ,“否则他将失去债券市场的信任。” 沃什自2006年至2011年担任美联储理事以来,一直是一位坚定的通胀 鹰派。但在被提名为美联储主席前的几个月里,他表示应该降息,并反复指出他认为最终会证明低利率合理性的种种因素。唐纳德·特朗普总统暗示,他之所以选择沃什担任这一最高职位,正是因为他愿意降息。 周五,当记者问及他是否认为新任美联储主席应该降息时,特朗普表示,他将把这个决定留给沃什。但他同时指出,金融市场对通胀的关注度过高。他还在社交媒体上 发帖 警告说:“增长并不意味着通胀!” 撇开特朗普不谈,前景与几个月前相比已经发生了巨大变化,当时美联储官员更担心的是疲软的就业市场而不是通货膨胀,而且大多数人认为今年有可能进一步降息。 就业数据公布之际,4月份的价格报告显示,美联储首选的 通胀指标同比上涨3.8% ,创下2023年以来的最大涨幅。这主要是(但不完全是)伊朗战争对能源价格造成的冲击所致。 交易员们已经押注美联储将在2026年底前至少加息一次,经济学家们也在调整预期。法国巴黎银行目前预计,美联储将于12月开始加息,并在随后的几个月继续加息,以扭转该央行在2025年实施的75个基点的宽松政策。 “今天公布的稳健的非农就业数据对我们有利,”法国巴黎银行分析师在给客户的报告中写道。 经济学家在分析数据时也发现了一些问题。与世界杯相关的超大规模招聘——世界杯将于6月和7月由美国联合举办——将在赛事结束后放缓或停止,这意味着就业反弹可能最终会消退。 不过,目前强劲的就业形势意味着关注点仍然在于通胀。 最新警告 “我们距离失业率下降、美联储成员开始担心明年第二轮工资效应已经不远了,” 咨询公司 RSM US 的首席经济学家...