杯中看消费：中国消费者的未来——三杯 --- The future of the Chinese consumer—in three glasses

 经济学人：

TO WESTERN PALATES baijiu is an acquired taste—and most never acquire it. China’s national fire water, at first whiff redolent of cheap potato vodka with a soupçon of fish sauce, is just too pungently unfamiliar. But whatever foreign investors plied with the stuff by their Chinese business partners make of the flavour profile, they appear to be lapping up shares in its makers.

对于西方人的口味来说，白酒是一种后天习得的口味，但大多数人从未习得过它。中国的国火水，乍一闻起来有一股廉价马铃薯伏特加加鱼露汤的味道，味道太刺鼻了。但无论外国投资者如何使用中国商业伙伴提供的产品，他们似乎都在抢购其制造商的股份。

Since China’s government announced a cocktail of policies to stimulate domestic consumption in late September, baijiu stocks have gone on a bender. Over the course of a week the biggest, Kweichow Moutai, gained nearly $90bn in market value—equivalent to a whole Diageo, the West’s top distiller, washed down with a Kirin. It is worth a cool $313bn, more than Coca-Cola. Throw in its six main rivals, also up by 40% or so, and the market capitalisation of big baijiu exceeds half a trillion dollars.

自九月下旬中国政府宣布一系列刺激国内消费的政策以来，白酒库存出现了大幅波动。一周之内，最大的贵州茅台市值增加了近 900 亿美元，相当于西方顶级酿酒商帝亚吉欧 (Diageo) 的市值被麒麟冲垮。它的价值高达 3130 亿美元，比可口可乐还高。加上其六大主要竞争对手也上涨了 40% 左右，大白酒的市值超过了 5000 亿美元。

It is not just the distillers who are benefiting from the week-long rally. The share prices of large Chinese brewers look just as frothy. That of Nongfu Spring, China’s biggest water-bottler, has increased by a third. This compares with a rise of 25% for the CSI 300 index of mainland blue chips as a whole. In China, the way to an investor’s heart suddenly appears to be through the throat. Will it all end in a nasty hangover?

从为期一周的上涨中受益的不仅仅是酿酒商。中国大型啤酒制造商的股价看起来同样充满泡沫。中国最大的瓶装水生产商农夫山泉的销售额增长了三分之一。相比之下，内地蓝筹股沪深 300 指数整体上涨 25%。在中国，抓住投资者的心突然变得像是要通过喉咙。这一切会以令人讨厌的宿醉结束吗？

Not necessarily. There is a lot to admire about the Chinese beverage industry—most of all, its eye-watering profitability. Consider China’s most valuable producer of baijiu, water and beer, respectively. Last year 92% of Kweichow Moutai’s nearly 150bn yuan ($21bn) in sales was pure gross profit. For Diageo the figure was 60%. In terms of operating margin, Nongfu (at 33%) bests digital titans like Alphabet, Google’s parent company (31%), and Tencent, China’s most valuable firm (30%), let alone rival water-pedlars such as Danone, owner of Evian (13%). Bud APAC, the listed Asian subsidiary of the world’s mightiest brewer, AB InBev, offers a better return on capital than its Belgian-American parent.

未必。中国饮料行业有很多值得钦佩的地方——最重要的是其令人瞠目结舌的盈利能力。以中国最有价值的白酒、水和啤酒生产商为例。去年，贵州茅台近 1500 亿元人民币（合 210 亿美元）的销售额中，92% 是纯毛利润。帝亚吉欧 (Diageo) 的这一数字为 60%。就营业利润率而言，农夫山泉（33%）超过了谷歌母公司 Alphabet（31%）和中国市值最高的公司腾讯（30%）等数字巨头，更不用说与达能（Danone）等水商竞争对手了。依云 (13%)。百威英博 (AB InBev) 是世界上最强大的啤酒制造商百威英博 (AB InBev) 旗下的亚洲上市子公司，百威亚太 (Bud APAC) 的资本回报率高于其比利时裔美国母公司。

All three firms are placing an interesting wager on the future of China’s consumer economy. When hundreds of millions of Chinese shoppers first came into some disposable income a couple of decades ago, they were happy to try any product in any category. After years of conspicuous consumption many customers are now becoming more discerning, not least because of the slowdown of the property market and the hit to sentiment. The stimulus at least offers hope of lifting the gloom. But Kweichow Moutai, Nongfu and Bud apac are also hoping to make themselves especially indispensable to customers, by standing out on quality.

这三家公司都对中国消费经济的未来下了有趣的赌注。几十年前，当数亿中国消费者第一次获得一些可支配收入时，他们很乐意尝试任何类别的任何产品。经过多年的炫耀性消费，许多消费者现在变得更加挑剔，尤其是因为房地产市场放缓和情绪受到打击。刺激措施至少带来了解除阴霾的希望。但贵州茅台、农夫山泉和百威亚太也希望通过在品质上脱颖而出，使自己成为消费者不可或缺的一部分。

This task is simplest for the baijiu company. It controls 94% of the market for the very finest hooch, which sells for 1,200 yuan or more per half-litre bottle. It is distilled in Guizhou province and matured in ancient cellars. Virtually no other company has such facilities—or, given that the most coveted sort dates back to the Ming dynasty, which ended in 1644, any chance of getting their hands on one for another few centuries. Kweichow Moutai also enjoys a decades-old reputation as the go-to tipple at the top table of the Politburo or the People’s Liberation Army; its trademark white, red and gold bottle was a rare concession to branding even during Maoism at its greyest. As a result, the company can spend less on marketing than its rivals, reckons Morningstar, a research firm. Kweichow Moutai’s mastery lies in maintaining scarcity and a nationwide-distribution network, recently bolstered by a digital platform that enables it to respond to demand from retailers and other buyers in real time.

这个任务对于白酒公司来说是最简单的。它控制着顶级烈酒 94% 的市场份额，每半升瓶的售价在 1200 元或以上。它在贵州省蒸馏并在古老的地窖中陈酿。几乎没有其他公司拥有这样的设施——或者，考虑到最令人垂涎​​的设施可以追溯到 1644 年结束的明朝，他们在接下来的几个世纪里没有机会获得这样的设施。贵州茅台也享有数十年的声誉，是政治局或解放军高层餐桌上的首选酒。即使在毛主义最灰暗的时期，其标志性的白色、红色和金色瓶子也是对品牌的罕见让步。研究公司晨星认为，因此，该公司在营销方面的支出比其竞争对手要少。贵州茅台的优势在于保持稀缺性和全国性的分销网络，最近得到了数字平台的支持，使其能够实时响应零售商和其他买家的需求。

Nongfu, on the other hand, has built a brand from scratch. Since its founding in 1996 it has marketed its core product as natural spring water from idyllic sources. This sets it apart from the distilled variety sold by many competitors—and enables it to charge a premium. The company is diversifying into other ready-to-drink beverages such as sugar-free tea and juices, which today account for around half of revenues, up from 40% in 2019. As with its spring water, these appeal to health nuts—a cohort that, unlike China’s population as a whole, keeps multiplying.

而农夫则是白手起家打造了一个品牌。自 1996 年成立以来，它的核心产品是来自田园诗般的天然泉水。这使其与许多竞争对手销售的蒸馏品种区分开来，并使其能够收取溢价。该公司正在多元化发展其他即饮饮料，例如无糖茶和果汁，这些饮料目前约占收入的一半，高于 2019 年的 40%。与矿泉水一样，这些饮料对健康坚果很有吸引力——与中国的整体人口不同，这个群体在不断增加。

The health benefits of Budweiser are less clear-cut. Still, it and its fancier sister brands, such as Corona, Hoegaarden and Goose Island, make up for it by offering Chinese drinkers a dose of exclusivity. In contrast to budget beers, sales of which have been declining for several years, the thirst for fancier pints persists. Bud APAC’s closest rival in this category is CR Beer, which distributes Heineken in the country. But most of CR Beer’s products have been engineered to be cheaper than water, as Mr McLeish puts it. Another competitor, Tsingtao, tried to lift its flagship brand to premium status with the help of new packaging and celebrity singers. When their fame proved fleeting, so did the strategy.

百威啤酒对健康的益处尚不那么明确。尽管如此，它和它的更高级的姐妹品牌，如科罗娜 (Corona)、福佳(Hoegaarden) 和鹅岛(Goose Island)，通过为中国饮酒者提供一定的独家性来弥补这一点。与多年来销量一直下降的廉价啤酒相比，人们对高档品脱啤酒的渴求依然存在。 Bud APAC 在这一类别中最接近的竞争对手是华润啤酒，该公司在该国分销喜力啤酒。但正如麦克利什先生所说，华润啤酒的大部分产品都被设计得比水便宜。另一个竞争对手青岛啤酒试图借助新包装和明星歌手将其旗舰品牌提升到高端地位。当他们的名声转瞬即逝时，他们的策略也随之消失。

Bottle shock 瓶震

Kweichow Moutai, Nongfu and Bud APAC are banking on two developments. The first is the continued growth of high-earners. This looks like a safe bet. The ranks of Chinese bringing home on average $95,000 a year increased by 7% annually between 2017 and 2022, to 93m people, according to Bernstein. By 2027 they could number more than 120m. Another 200m may make $26,000 or so, up from 170m two years ago. Together that would be nearly the current population of America.

贵州茅台、农夫山泉和百威亚太公司都寄希望于两项发展。首先是高收入人群持续增长。这看起来是一个安全的选择。伯恩斯坦表示，2017 年至 2022 年间，平均年收入为 95,000 美元的中国人数量每年增长 7%，达到 9300 万人。到 2027 年，其数量可能会超过 1.2 亿。另外 2 亿人的收入可能会达到 26,000 美元左右，而两年前的收入为 1.7 亿美元。这几乎相当于美国目前的总人口。

The beverage trio’s second assumption is that those high-earners will open their wallets as readily as Americans do. Their recent reluctance to spend has worsened China’s deflation and spooked investors fearful of its dampening effect on earnings; the three firms’ share prices remain below their highs of four or five years ago despite the latest surge. But as long as Chinese incomes grow, consumers will fancy a tipple. Investors still holding their nose could soon be taking a snifter. 

饮料三人组的第二个假设是，那些高收入者会像美国人一样愿意花钱。他们最近不愿花钱，加剧了中国的通货紧缩，并令投资者担心其对盈利的抑制作用；尽管最近股价飙升，但这三家公司的股价仍低于四五年前的高点。但只要中国人的收入增长，消费者就会喜欢喝酒。仍然捂着鼻子的投资者可能很快就会采取行动。