什么是伊斯兰国呼罗珊省

经济学人：

The group that claimed responsibility for the Crocus City Hall attack is a growing threat to Russia—and the West

声称对番红花市政厅袭击事件负责的组织对俄罗斯和西方的威胁越来越大

TWO WEEKS before gunmen stormed the Crocus City Hall near Moscow, killing at least 137 people, American intelligence warned that “extremists” had “imminent plans” to attack large events in the city. On March 7th Russian security services said they had foiled an attack by Islamic State (IS), a jihadist outfit, on a synagogue in Moscow. So it was little surprise that, hours after the Crocus City attack, the group claimed responsibility. On March 25th four suspects, reportedly from Tajikistan, appeared in court. American officials believe they are part of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). What is this outfit, and what threat does it pose?

在枪手袭击莫斯科附近的番红花市政厅，造成至少 137 人死亡的两周前，美国情报部门警告说，“极端分子”有 “迫在眉睫的计划” 袭击该市的大型活动。3 月 7 日，俄罗斯安全部门表示，他们挫败了圣战组织伊斯兰国（IS）对莫斯科一座犹太教堂的袭击。因此，毫不奇怪，在番红花城袭击事件发生数小时后，该组织声称对此负责。3 月 25 日，据报道来自塔吉克斯坦的四名嫌疑人出庭。美国官员认为他们是伊斯兰国呼罗珊省（iskp）的一部分。这套衣服是什么，它构成了什么威胁？

ISKP is the Central Asian offshoot of IS, the group that established a “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria in 2014. (IS had lost most of the land it controlled there by 2018. Several other offshoots are active in Africa and elsewhere.) Khorasan is a historical area that takes in parts of Iran, Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries (see map). Based mainly in northern and eastern Afghanistan, ISKP is an implacable enemy of the Taliban, an Islamist group that retook control of the country after the departure of American troops in August 2021. ISKP portrays the Taliban as sell-outs for signing a deal with America and co-operating with its withdrawal. It also frequently criticises Tajikistan’s dictator, Emomali Rahmon, an ally of Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, in messaging groups because he bans outward displays of Islamic belief.

ISKP 是 IS 的中亚分支，该组织于 2014 年在伊拉克和叙利亚建立了 “哈里发国”。（到 2018 年，伊斯兰国已经失去了它在那里控制的大部分土地。其他几个分支在非洲和其他地方也很活跃。呼罗珊是一个历史悠久的地区，包括伊朗、阿富汗和其他中亚国家的部分地区（见地图）。ISKP 主要位于阿富汗北部和东部，是塔利班的死敌，塔利班是一个伊斯兰组织，在 2021 年 8 月美军撤离后重新控制了该国。ISKP 将塔利班描绘成与美国签署协议并配合其撤军的出卖者。它还经常在消息群组中批评塔吉克斯坦独裁者埃莫马利 · 拉赫蒙（Emomali Rahmon），他是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔 · 普京（Vladimir Putin）的盟友，因为他禁止对外展示伊斯兰信仰。

Map: The Economist 地图： 经济学人

ISKP seems to have been established in 2014. It attracted disaffected members of the Pakistani Taliban as well as Afghan members, whose regime had been routed by American-backed forces by 2003. The group, which follows Sunni Islam, prides itself on being even less forgiving of non-believers and other Islamic groups—including followers of Shia Islam, the second-largest branch of the faith after Sunnism. Between 2019 and 2021 it claimed responsibility for numerous attacks on mosques, funerals and schools in Afghanistan. During America’s withdrawal from the country it carried out a suicide-bombing at Kabul airport, killing more than 100 people, including 13 American soldiers.

ISKP 似乎成立于 2014 年。它吸引了巴基斯坦塔利班和阿富汗成员的心怀不满，他们的政权在 2003 年被美国支持的部队击溃。这个追随逊尼派伊斯兰教的团体以对非信徒和其他伊斯兰团体的宽容度更低而自豪，其中包括什叶派伊斯兰教的追随者，什叶派伊斯兰教是仅次于逊尼派的第二大信仰分支。在 2019 年至 2021 年期间，它声称对阿富汗清真寺、葬礼和学校的多次袭击负责。在美国撤出该国期间，它在喀布尔机场进行了自杀式爆炸，造成 100 多人死亡，其中包括 13 名美国士兵。

Since July 2022 Afghanistan’s rulers have ordered repeated raids on the group’s hideouts. The number of successful attacks by ISKP in the country has fallen. Experts suggest that the raids may have pushed ISKP to look farther afield. In 2022 the group claimed to have fired rockets at military installations in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In January 2024 it carried out the worst terrorist attack in Iran’s post-revolutionary history, killing more than 100 people at a memorial event for Qassem Soleimani, a military commander assassinated by an American drone in 2020.

自 2022 年 7 月以来，阿富汗统治者多次下令突袭该组织的藏身处。iskp 在该国成功发动攻击的次数有所下降。专家认为，这次突袭可能促使 iskp 将目光投向更远的地方。2022 年，该组织声称向塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的军事设施发射了火箭弹。2024 年 1 月，它发动了伊朗革命后历史上最严重的恐怖袭击，在 2020 年被美国无人机暗杀的军事指挥官卡西姆 · 苏莱曼尼 （Qassem Soleimani） 的纪念活动中造成 100 多人死亡。

ISKP’s recruitment strategies have changed. Roughly 4,000 fighters from Central Asia are believed to have joined IS in Iraq and Syria. After the caliphate’s overthrow, many returned home. ISKP is trying to enlist them. The group’s media operation now uses a range of the region’s languages, from Persian to Uzbek. In 2022 it launched Tajik-language networks on Telegram, through which it promotes its intention to topple Mr Rahmon.

ISKP 的招聘策略发生了变化。据信，大约有 4000 名来自中亚的战斗人员加入了伊拉克和叙利亚。哈里发被推翻后，许多人返回家园。ISKP 正试图招募他们。该集团的媒体业务现在使用该地区的一系列语言，从波斯语到乌兹别克语。2022 年，它在 Telegram 上推出了塔吉克语网络，通过该网络宣传其推翻拉赫蒙的意图。

The Crocus City attack is the latest evidence that ISKP is turning its attention beyond Central Asia. In January two of its militants attacked a church in Istanbul, killing one person. German officials said they had recently foiled a planned attack. The Moscow atrocity was preceded by a stream of anti-Russian messages on ISKP channels. Mr Putin’s relationships with the Taliban and with Mr Rahmon make his country a target. ISKP propaganda also cites his brutal wars in Chechnya, a Muslim-majority region in the Caucasus, his intervention in Syria against IS and the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan during the 1980s as evidence that Russia is hostile to Muslims.

番红花城袭击事件是 ISKP 正在将注意力转移到中亚以外的最新证据。今年 1 月，两名武装分子袭击了伊斯坦布尔的一座教堂，造成一人死亡。德国官员表示，他们最近挫败了一起计划中的袭击。在莫斯科暴行之前，ISKP 频道上出现了一连串的反俄信息。普京与塔利班和拉赫蒙的关系使他的国家成为攻击目标。ISKP 的宣传还引用了他在高加索穆斯林占多数的车臣地区的残酷战争，他在叙利亚对伊斯兰国的干预以及苏联在 1980 年代入侵阿富汗的证据，作为俄罗斯对穆斯林怀有敌意的证据。

Russia’s intelligence agencies may have been too distracted by the war in Ukraine to prevent the attack. Analysts warn that agencies in the West are also strained. The massacre at Crocus City Hall is a bitter reminder that the threat posed by IS remains. ■

俄罗斯情报机构可能因乌克兰战争而分心，无法阻止袭击。分析人士警告说，西方的机构也面临压力。Crocus 市政厅的大屠杀是一个痛苦的提醒，即伊斯兰国构成的威胁仍然存在。