为什么美国无法摆脱通胀担忧

经济学人：

Some hikers believe that the last mile is the hardest: all the blisters and accumulated aches slow progress at the very end. Others swear that it is the easiest because the finishing line is in sight. For the Federal Reserve, the last mile of its trek to bring inflation back to its 2% target has been simultaneously easy and hard. Easy in the sense that the central bank has not budged on interest rates for eight months, instead letting its previous tightening do the work. Hard because the wait for inflation to recede has felt rather long.

一些徒步旅行者认为，最后一英里是最难的：所有的水泡和累积的疼痛都会在最后减缓前进速度。其他人则发誓这是最简单的，因为终点线就在眼前。对于美联储来说，将通胀率带回 2% 目标的最后一英里既容易又困难。从某种意义上说，这很容易，因为央行已经八个月没有在利率上让步，而是让之前的紧缩政策发挥作用。很难，因为等待通胀消退的时间相当长。

image: The Economist 图片来源： 《经济学人》

The slow easing of price pressures and America’s continued economic vigour have fuelled debate about whether the Fed might therefore chart a more aggressive course for the last mile of its anti-inflation journey. Policymakers had telegraphed that they would make three quarter-point rate cuts this year. But since then some prominent measures of inflation have seemingly got stuck at around 3-4%, while the unemployment rate has remained below 4%. So the big question heading into a monetary-policy meeting that concluded on March 20th was whether the Fed might pare its projection to two cuts. In the end, the central bank (or, to be a little more precise, the median voting member of its rate-setting committee) opted to maintain its outlook for three cuts in 2024, though it lowered its projection for 2025 to three cuts from four.

价格压力的缓慢缓解和美国持续的经济活力引发了关于美联储是否会因此为其抗通胀之旅的最后一英里制定更激进路线的争论。政策制定者曾表示，他们今年将降息三个季度。但从那时起，一些重要的通胀指标似乎停留在 3-4% 左右，而失业率一直保持在 4% 以下。因此，在 3 月 20 日结束的货币政策会议上，最大的问题是美联储是否会将其预测削减到两次降息。最终，央行（或者更准确地说，是其利率制定委员会的投票中位数成员）选择维持其 2024 年降息三次的预期，尽管它将 2025 年的预测从四次下调至三次。

An important gap in inflation measures helps explain the Fed’s rationale for sticking with its plan for this year. Much of the concern about the persistence of inflation stems from recent readings of the consumer price index. “Core” CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, decelerated throughout much of 2022 and early 2023, but since last June has picked up speed. In both January and February it rose at a monthly clip of roughly 0.4%, a rate which, if sustained for a full year, would lead to annual inflation of about 5%—far too high for comfort for the Fed. In such a scenario America’s central bankers would be fretting not about cutting rates but about whether to resume raising them.

通胀指标的一个重要缺口有助于解释美联储坚持今年计划的理由。对通胀持续的担忧很大程度上源于最近对消费者价格指数的读数。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本的 “核心”CPI 在 2022 年大部分时间和 2023 年初都有所放缓，但自去年 6 月以来已经加快了速度。在 1 月和 2 月，它以大约 0.4% 的月度速度上升，如果这一速度持续一整年，将导致每年约 5% 的通胀率——对于美联储来说，这太高了。在这种情况下，美国央行行长们担心的不是降息，而是是否恢复加息。

Yet whereas investors and commentators tend to emphasise the CPI, in no small part because it is the first inflation data point each month, the central bank’s focus is a separate gauge: the price index for personal consumption expenditures, which comes out several weeks later. Core PCE prices have been better behaved. Although they heated up in January, their annualised pace over the past half-year has been smack in line with the Fed’s 2% inflation target. This has helped give central bankers the confidence that they can start trimming rates relatively soon.

然而，尽管投资者和评论员倾向于强调 CPI，这在很大程度上是因为它是每个月的第一个通胀数据点，但央行的重点是一个单独的指标：个人消费支出的价格指数，该指数将在几周后公布。核心 PCE 价格表现较好。尽管它们在 1 月份升温，但过去半年的年化速度与美联储 2% 的通胀目标一致。这有助于让央行行长们有信心，他们可以相对较快地开始降息。

At a press conference after its meeting Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, studiously avoided giving any strong hints about when the central bank will make its first cut. But the market—as implied by the price of rate-hedging contracts—expects that it will get under way in June. And Mr Powell was generally satisfied with price trends. “We continue to make good progress in bringing inflation down,” he said.

在会议结束后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆 · 鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）刻意避免就美联储何时首次降息给出任何强有力的暗示。但市场——正如利率对冲合约的价格所暗示的那样——预计它将在 6 月开始。鲍威尔对价格走势总体上感到满意。“我们继续在降低通胀方面取得良好进展，” 他说。

image: The Economist 图片来源： 《经济学人》

What accounts for the CPI-PCE divergence? The CPI is more rigid, with its components adjusted annually; the PCE is in effect adjusted every month, reflecting, for example, whether consumers substitute cheaper apples for dearer oranges. Over time that leads to slightly lower PCE price growth. Different weightings have also had a big impact this year. Housing makes up about a third of the CPI basket but just 15% of the PCE one, and stubbornly high rents have kept the CPI elevated. There are other differences, too. For instance, airfares pushed up the CPI in February, based on prices for a fixed set of flight routes. The PCE, which considers distances actually flown, has been lower.

是什么导致了 CPI-PCE 的背离？CPI 更加严格，其组成部分每年调整一次; PCE 实际上每个月都会进行调整，例如，反映消费者是否用更便宜的苹果代替更贵的橙子。随着时间的流逝，这导致 PCE 价格增长略有下降。今年不同的权重也产生了很大的影响。住房约占 CPI 篮子的三分之一，但仅占 pce 篮子的 15%，而顽固的高租金使 CPI 保持高位。还有其他差异。例如，机票价格推高了 2 月份的 CPI，这是基于一组固定航线的价格。考虑实际飞行距离的 pce 较低。

Another question for the Fed is where it wants to end up. In an ideal world central bankers would guide a full-employment, stable-inflation economy to what is known as the neutral rate of interest, the level at which monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. In reality, although there is no way of observing the neutral rate the Fed still tries to aim for it, with its policymakers writing down their estimates every quarter. Since 2019 their median projection has, in real terms, been 0.5% (ie, a Fed-funds rate of 2.5% and a PCE inflation rate of 2%).

美联储面临的另一个问题是它希望最终走向何方。在一个理想的世界里，央行行长们会引导一个充分就业、稳定的通胀经济达到所谓的中性利率，在这个水平上，货币政策既不是扩张性的，也不是紧缩性的。实际上，尽管无法观察中性利率，但美联储仍然试图以中性利率为目标，其政策制定者每个季度都会写下他们的估计。自 2019 年以来，他们的预测中值实际为 0.5%（即联邦基金利率为 2.5%，PCE 通胀率为 2%）。

That has changed, albeit pretty imperceptibly. Narrowly, the Fed’s new median projection for rates in the long run shifted up to 2.6%, implying a real neutral rate of 0.6%. This may sound like a puny, academic difference. But it lies at the core of central-bank thinking about post-pandemic growth, in particular whether it believes that rates should be higher on an ongoing basis in order to avoid economic overheating, perhaps because of rising productivity or excessive government spending. Officials appear to be heading towards that view, though Mr Powell demurred on drawing any conclusions based on the upward creep in long-run rates.

这种情况已经发生了变化，尽管是难以察觉的。从狭义上讲，美联储对长期利率的新预测中值上调至 2.6%，这意味着实际中性利率为 0.6%。这听起来像是一个微不足道的学术差异。但它是央行对疫情后经济增长的思考的核心，特别是它是否认为应该持续提高利率以避免经济过热，这可能是因为生产率提高或政府支出过高。官员们似乎正在朝着这一观点发展，尽管鲍威尔反对根据长期利率的上升得出任何结论。

The Fed has still to travel the last mile in its fight against inflation. Even once the journey comes to an end, a difficult interest-rate question will remain. ■

美联储在抗击通胀的斗争中仍需走完最后一英里。即使旅程走到尽头，一个棘手的利率问题仍然存在。■