油价非常稳定的三个原因

经济学人：

SHOULDN’T OIL PRICES be surging? War has returned to the Middle East. Tankers in the Red Sea—through which around 12% of seaborne crude is normally shipped—are under attack by Houthi militants. And OPEC, a cartel of oil exporters, is restricting production. Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, has invoked the spectre of 1973, when the Yom Kippur war led to an Arab oil embargo that quadrupled prices in just three months. But oil markets have remained calm, trading mostly in the range of $75 and $85 per barrel for much of last year.

油价不应该飙升吗？战争又回到了中东。红海的油轮 - 通常通过红海运输约 12% 的海运原油 - 受到胡塞武装分子的袭击。石油输出国组织（OPEC）是一个石油出口国的卡特尔，正在限制产量。美国国务卿安东尼 · 布林肯（Antony Blinken）援引了 1973 年的幽灵，当时赎罪日战争导致阿拉伯石油禁运，在短短三个月内使油价翻了两番。但石油市场一直保持平静，去年大部分时间交易价格大多在每桶 75 美元至 85 美元之间。

Chart: The Economist 图：《经济学人》

There have been exceptions. Brent crude, a global benchmark, ticked above $85 per barrel last spring after OPEC+, a larger organisation which includes Russia, said it would cut production. When Saudi Arabia extended its production cuts in September, prices reached almost $100. The market rose again after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th. Yet each time prices quickly returned to that $75-$85 range (see chart 1). Brent ended 2023 at $78, down $4 from the start of the year. There are three reasons why traders expect this trend to continue in 2024.

但也有例外。去年春天，全球基准布伦特原油价格升至每桶 85 美元以上，此前包括俄罗斯在内的大型组织欧佩克 + 表示将减产。当沙特阿拉伯在 9 月份延长减产时，价格达到了近 100 美元。10 月 7 日哈马斯袭击以色列后，市场再次上涨。然而，每次价格都迅速回到 75-85 美元的区间（见图 1）。布伦特原油 2023 年收于 78 美元，较年初下跌 4 美元。交易员预计这一趋势将在 2024 年持续有三个原因。

Chart: The Economist 图：《经济学人》

The first is supply—for years the biggest driver of price surges. Oil production is now less concentrated in the Middle East than it has been for much of the past 50 years. The region has gone from drilling 37% of the world’s oil in 1974 to 29% today. Production is also less concentrated among members of OPEC (see chart 2). That is partly because of the shale boom of the 2010s, which turned America into a net energy exporter for the first time since at least 1949. Growing output from non-OPEC countries such as Guyana, which produced record volumes of crude last year, is also helping to diversify supply. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reckons that new sources, along with increased volumes from America and Canada, will cover most of the growth in global demand in 2024.

首先是供应——多年来，供应一直是价格飙升的最大驱动力。与过去 50 年的大部分时间相比，现在的石油生产在中东的集中度较低。该地区从 1974 年钻探全球石油的 37% 增加到今天的 29%。石油输出国组织成员国的产量集中度也较低（见图 2）。这在一定程度上是因为 2010 年代的页岩热潮，使美国至少自 1949 年以来首次成为能源净出口国。圭亚那等非欧佩克国家的产量不断增长，去年的原油产量创下历史新高，这也有助于实现供应多样化。国际能源署（IEA）估计，新的能源来源，以及来自美国和加拿大的产量增加，将覆盖 2024 年全球需求增长的大部分。

Oil from Russia, the world’s third-largest producer, has continued to flow despite restrictions from the West, which in 2022 imposed a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian exports of seaborne crude. Traders based in Dubai and Singapore promptly rejigged tanker fleets to send vast quantities of discounted oil through Indian refineries, changing established routes with astonishing agility. Russian oil is now widely traded above the West’s price cap. Yet in one respect, at least, the West’s policy has worked: the continued availability of Russian oil has helped prevent the dramatic surge in prices that many feared in 2022, when the EU banned imports of Russian crude after Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

尽管西方在 2022 年对俄罗斯海运原油出口实施了每桶 60 美元的价格上限，但来自世界第三大生产国俄罗斯的石油仍在继续流动。总部设在迪拜和新加坡的贸易商迅速调整了油轮船队，通过印度炼油厂运送大量打折石油，以惊人的敏捷性改变了既定路线。俄罗斯石油现在被广泛交易在西方价格上限之上。然而，至少在一个方面，西方的政策奏效了：俄罗斯石油的持续供应有助于防止价格在 2022 年大幅飙升，当时欧盟在弗拉基米尔 · 普京发动全面入侵乌克兰后禁止进口俄罗斯原油。

Chart: The Economist 图：《经济学人》

Another reason for calm is OPEC members’ ample spare production capacity (ie, the amount of oil that can be produced from idle facilities at short notice). When production is tight, as it was during the early 2000s, exporting countries have little room to respond to increases in demand. That can send prices soaring (see chart 3). Today the situation is different. America’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that OPEC’s core members have around 4.5m barrels per day of spare capacity—greater than the total daily production of Iraq. For now, traders are betting that OPEC’s cushion can soften the blow of the supply disruptions.

平静的另一个原因是欧佩克成员国拥有充足的闲置产能（即在短时间内可以从闲置设施中生产的石油量）。当生产紧张时，如 2000 年代初，出口国几乎没有空间应对需求的增长。这可能导致价格飙升（见图 3）。今天的情况不同了。美国能源信息署（EIA）估计，欧佩克核心成员国每天拥有约 4.500 万桶的闲置产能，超过伊拉克的日总产量。目前，交易员押注欧佩克的缓冲可以减轻供应中断的打击。

Chart: The Economist 图：《经济学人》

Finally, there is demand itself (see chart 4). The world still has a big appetite for oil: according to the EIA demand hit a record in 2023 and will be higher still in 2024, thanks in part to growth in India. But that is unlikely to push prices much higher. Global growth is not at the levels seen in the early 2000s. China, long the world’s biggest importer of oil, is experiencing anaemic economic growth. Structural changes to its economy also make it less thirsty for the stuff: next year, for example, half of all new cars sold in the country are expected to be electric.

最后，还有需求本身（见图 4）。世界对石油的需求仍然很大：根据 EIA 的数据，需求在 2023 年创下历史新高，2024 年仍将更高，这在一定程度上要归功于印度的增长。但这不太可能推高价格。全球增长没有达到 2000 年代初的水平。长期以来，中国一直是世界上最大的石油进口国，但经济增长乏力。其经济的结构性变化也使其对这些东西的渴求减少：例如，明年，该国销售的所有新车中有一半预计将是电动汽车。

Other climate policies will have a similar effect elsewhere. In the long term, the world’s move away from oil will ensure the market is more resilient to geopolitical shocks and production cuts, even if the transition is likely to be disruptive. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries recently pushed Brent above $85 per barrel for the first time since early November. For now, though, the price rise looks modest. It will take a lot to roil oil markets this year.■

其他气候政策也将在其他地方产生类似的影响。从长远来看，世界对石油的依赖将确保市场对地缘政治冲击和减产更具弹性，即使这种转变可能是破坏性的。乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯炼油厂最近将布伦特原油价格推高至每桶 85 美元以上，这是自 11 月初以来的首次。不过，就目前而言，价格上涨看起来并不大。今年要搅动石油市场将需要付出很多努力。