为什么南非人厌倦了 30 年的民主

经济学人：

Almost 30 years ago, on May 10th 1994, Nelson Mandela was inaugurated as South Africa’s first black president. A fortnight earlier he and millions of other black South Africans had voted for the first time in their lives. Internationally, the joyous scenes were seen as further proof, following the fall of the Soviet Union, that the world was moving in a democratic direction after a dark 20th century.

大约 30 年前，即 1994 年 5 月 10 日，纳尔逊 · 曼德拉 (Nelson Mandela) 就任南非第一位黑人总统。两周前，他和数百万其他南非黑人进行了有生以来的第一次投票。在国际上，苏联解体后，这些欢乐的场面被视为进一步证明，在黑暗的 20 世纪之后，世界正在朝着民主的方向前进。

As South Africa prepares for its seventh multiracial general election on May 29th, it can be proud. That vote will be free and fair. The liberal institutions established under Mandela are bulwarks against abuses of power. Millions of black South Africans have marched from apartheid into the middle class.

南非正在为 5 月 29 日举行的第七次多种族大选做准备，它可以感到自豪。这次投票将是自由和公平的。曼德拉领导下建立的自由主义机构是防止滥用权力的堡垒。数百万南非黑人已从种族隔离制度迈入中产阶级。

Yet after three decades of freedom, most South Africans say they are dissatisfied with democracy and would ditch elected governments if an autocrat could do a better job. There is more socialising across racial boundaries, but the share of South Africans saying race relations have improved since 1994 has fallen sharply since 2010.

然而，在经历了三十年的自由之后，大多数南非人表示，他们对民主感到不满，如果独裁者能做得更好，他们就会抛弃民选政府。跨种族界限的社交活动越来越多，但自 2010 年以来，表示种族关系自 1994 年以来有所改善的南非人比例大幅下降。

The reason is simple. After steady progress in the first 15 years, most South Africans—and therefore, since they are 81% of the population, most black citizens—no longer see their lives getting better. On average, incomes have stagnated since 2008, unemployment has risen from around 20% to more than 30%, and power and water cuts have become more frequent. Corruption has seeped into every layer of the state. Only 15% of 257 municipalities get clean audits from the relevant watchdog. It is hard to be thankful for democratic freedoms when you are jobless and living in your grandmother’s house.

原因很简单。经过前 15 年的稳步进步后，大多数南非人（因此，因为他们占总人口的 81%，即大多数黑人公民）不再看到自己的生活变得更好。平均而言，自 2008 年以来，收入停滞不前，失业率从 20% 左右上升到 30% 以上，停电停水也更加频繁。腐败已经渗透到国家的各个层面。 257 个城市中，只有 15% 得到相关监管机构的干净审计。当你失业并住在祖母家里时，你很难对民主自由心存感激。

Understanding why South Africa’s dream has clouded is crucial if Africa’s largest economy is to find its way. Alas, a fatalistic explanation has taken root among academics, commentators and left-wing politicians. This view holds that the deal struck in the early 1990s to end apartheid was a sham: it won black people political rights, but not economic freedom. Mandela, in other words, was a sell-out who ushered in a “new apartheid” in which a black elite was co-opted by whites.

如果非洲最大的经济体想要找到自己的出路，那么了解南非的梦想为何变得黯淡至关重要。唉，一种宿命论的解释已经在学者、评论家和左翼政客中扎根。这种观点认为，20 世纪 90 年代初达成的结束种族隔离的协议是一个骗局：它为黑人赢得了政治权利，但没有赢得经济自由。换句话说，曼德拉是一个叛逆者，他开创了 “新种族隔离”，黑人精英被白人拉拢。

There are many reasons why this is wrong. First, it gives too little credit to Mandela’s courage and canniness. He was a skilful politician who stuck to his red lines, winning majority rule while avoiding civil war. Anyone who spends 27 years in prison for his cause is an unusual sort of sell-out.

造成这种错误的原因有很多。首先，它对曼德拉的勇气和精明的信任太少了。他是一位技巧娴熟的政治家，坚持自己的红线，赢得了多数统治，同时避免了内战。任何为了自己的事业而入狱 27 年的人都是一种不同寻常的出卖行为。

It also ignores the good the African National Congress (ANC) did with its newly won power. Under Trevor Manuel, the finance minister from 1996 to 2009, sensible macroeconomic policies underpinned steady annual GDP growth averaging 3.3%, more than double the rate of the next 14 years. Using the proceeds, ANC-led governments replaced millions of shacks and mud huts with decent homes that have water and electric lights. Welfare benefits made poverty less grinding.

它还忽视了非洲人国民大会（anc）利用其新赢得的权力所做的好事。 1996 年至 2009 年担任财政部长的特雷弗 · 曼努埃尔 (Trevor Manuel) 领导下，明智的宏观经济政策支撑了国内生产总值年平均增长率 3.3%，是未来 14 年增长率的两倍多。用这笔收益，非盟领导的政府用有水和电灯的体面房屋取代了数百万棚屋和泥屋。福利待遇减轻了贫困的痛苦。

Another reason is that fatalism allows the ANC to shirk responsibility for its worst decisions. Corruption, glossed over by Mandela and Thabo Mbeki, his successor, exploded under Jacob Zuma, president from 2009 to 2018. Cadre deployment, whereby civil servants are appointed on the basis of fealty to the ANC, not merit, has eviscerated bureaucratic capacity. In another case of ideological folly, the ANC has increasingly pursued policies that focus on the redistribution of wealth in ways that actually hinder its creation. These include so-called “black economic empowerment” policies and boosting the bargaining power of unions. The ANC’s own policies are the reason why South Africa is still a society where perhaps a quarter of people live well and the rest are desperately poor.

另一个原因是，宿命论让非洲人国民大会可以逃避其最糟糕决定的责任。被曼德拉和他的继任者塔博 · 姆贝基掩盖的腐败现象，在 2009 年至 2018 年担任总统的雅各布 · 祖马 (Jacob Zuma) 领导下爆发。在干部部署中，公务员的任命基于对非洲国民议会的忠诚，而不是功绩，这削弱了官僚能力。在另一个意识形态愚蠢的例子中，非国大越来越多地推行注重财富再分配的政策，但实际上却阻碍了财富的创造。其中包括所谓的 “黑人经济赋权” 政策和提高工会的议价能力。非国大自己的政策是南非仍然是一个大约四分之一的人生活良好而其余人极度贫困的社会的原因。

The danger over the next 30 years is that politics becomes ever more zero-sum. Populist parties are race-baiting and exploiting poverty. But there is also a resilience to South African politics, forged in the fight for liberty. Apartheid left a wariness of racially or tribally charged politics. The transition helped entrench consensus and pragmatism. Elections have brought some accountability: the ANC now has a majority in only two of the eight largest urban areas. Democracy may have been a disappointment so far. But, in 2024 as in 1994, it offers the potential for renewal. That is Mandela’s enduring gift. ■

未来 30 年的危险在于政治变得更加零和。民粹主义政党正在进行种族诱饵并利用贫困。但南非政治也具有在争取自由的斗争中形成的韧性。种族隔离留下了对种族或部落政治的警惕。这一转变有助于巩固共识和实用主义。选举带来了一些问责制：非洲国民大会现在仅在八个最大城市地区中的两个地区拥有多数席位。到目前为止，民主可能令人失望。但是，到 2024 年，就像 1994 年一样，它提供了更新的潜力。这是曼德拉不朽的礼物。 ■