美国不计后果的借贷对其经济乃至世界经济构成威胁

经济学人：

If prudence is a virtue then America’s budget is an exercise in vice. Over the past 12 months the federal government has spent $2trn, or 7.2% of GDP, more than it has raised in taxes, after stripping out temporary factors. Usually such a vast deficit would be the result of a recession and accompanying stimulus. Today the lavish borrowing comes despite America’s longest stretch of sub-4% unemployment in half a century. The deficit has not been below 3% of GDP, an old measure of sound fiscal management, since 2015, and next year Uncle Sam’s net debts will probably cross 100% of GDP, up by about two-fifths in a decade. Whereas near-zero interest rates once made large debts affordable, today rates are higher and the government is spending more servicing the debt than on national defence.

如果谨慎是一种美德，那么美国的预算就是一种罪恶。过去 12 个月，联邦政府支出了 2 万美元，即 GDP 的 7.2%，超过了扣除临时因素后的税收。通常如此巨大的赤字是经济衰退和随之而来的刺激措施的结果。如今，尽管美国失业率处于半个世纪以来最长的低于 4% 的时期，但大举借贷仍在发生。自 2015 年以来，赤字占 GDP 的比重一直不低于 3%，这是衡量稳健财政管理的一项古老指标，明年山姆大叔的净债务可能会超过 GDP 的 100%，十年内增加约五分之二。尽管接近于零的利率曾经使巨额债务变得可以承受，但如今利率更高，而且政府的偿债支出比国防支出还要多。

How has it come to this? The costs of wars, a global financial crisis and pandemic, unfunded tax cuts and stimulus programmes have all piled up. Both Republicans and Democrats pay lip service to fiscal responsibility. But the record of each side in office is of throwing caution to the wind as they indulge in extra spending or tax cuts. The biggest economic decision facing the next president is how generously to renew Donald Trump’s tax cuts of 2017, a step that will only worsen America’s dire fiscal trajectory.

怎么会变成这样呢？战争、全球金融危机和流行病、缺乏资金的减税和刺激计划的成本都在不断增加。共和党和民主党都口头上强调财政责任。但执政双方的记录都是把谨慎抛在了脑后，沉迷于额外支出或减税。下一任总统面临的最大经济决策是如何慷慨地延续唐纳德 · 特朗普 2017 年的减税政策，这一举措只会让美国严峻的财政轨迹进一步恶化。

Chart: The Economist 图表：《经济学家》

This profligacy cannot go on for ever—at some point, interest costs will rise to intolerable levels. The binge must therefore come to an end in some combination of three ways.

这种挥霍行为不可能永远持续下去——到了某个时候，利息成本将上升到难以忍受的水平。因此，狂欢必须通过三种方式的组合来结束。

The least painful is that good fortune comes to the rescue. Until recently, falling global real interest rates contained the cost of servicing debts even as these grew in size. Today Japan just about manages with net debts about half as big again as America’s, relative to GDP, thanks to near-zero rates. If inflation is defeated and real interest rates fall back from their present highs, America could be off the hook, too. Another source of relief could be productivity growth. If it surges, say because of artificial intelligence, America could outgrow its debts.

最不痛苦的是好运来救援。直到最近，全球实际利率下降抑制了偿债成本，尽管债务规模不断扩大。如今，由于利率接近于零，日本的净债务占国内生产总值的比例大约是美国的一半。如果通胀被击败并且实际利率从目前的高位回落，美国也可能摆脱困境。另一个缓解压力的来源可能是生产率的增长。如果它因人工智能而飙升，美国可能会摆脱债务。

Yet good luck cannot be assumed. The most responsible way for politicians to end the budget binge would be to correct course as the interest bill rises. The IMF estimates that America will need to cut spending, excluding debt interest, or raise taxes by 4% of GDP to stabilise its debts by 2029. It has managed a similar adjustment before, between 1989 and 2000, when “bond vigilantes” were said to have cowed Washington into submission.

然而，不能假设运气好。政客们结束预算狂潮的最负责任的方式是随着利息支出的上升而纠正方向。国际货币基金组织估计，到 2029 年，美国将需要削减支出（不包括债务利息）或将税收提高 GDP 的 4%，以稳定其债务。1989 年至 2000 年期间，该组织曾进行过类似的调整，当时有 “债券义务警员” 之称。威吓华盛顿屈服。

The trouble is that the circumstances were then well-suited to belt-tightening. The end of the cold war yielded a peace dividend: falling defence spending accounted for fully 60% of the fiscal adjustment. As a share of the population the labour force climbed to an all-time high. A real-wage boom made the pain of higher taxes more bearable. But today war and rising global tensions are pushing defence spending up and baby-boomers are retiring in droves.

问题在于，当时的情况非常适合勒紧裤腰带。冷战的结束带来了和平红利：国防开支的下降占财政调整的 60%。劳动力占人口的比例攀升至历史最高水平。实际工资的上涨使得高税收带来的痛苦变得更容易忍受。但如今，战争和日益加剧的全球紧张局势正在推高国防开支，婴儿潮一代正在成群结队地退休。

That leaves the third and most worrying option: making creditors pay. America would never be forced by the markets to default, because the Federal Reserve can act as a buyer of last resort. Fiscal laxity could cause inflation, though, which would mean bondholders and savers taking a big real-terms hit.

这就剩下第三个也是最令人担忧的选择：让债权人付出代价。美国永远不会被市场强迫违约，因为美联储可以充当最后的买家。不过，财政宽松可能会导致通货膨胀，这意味着债券持有人和储户将遭受重大实际打击。

One way this could happen is if a populist like Mr Trump were to take control of the Fed. His advisers have floated ideas for influencing monetary policy that include appointing a pliant chairman and giving Congress oversight of interest rates. Mr Trump likes low rates; if they were combined with a growing deficit, inflation would surge.

发生这种情况的一种可能是，像特朗普这样的民粹主义者控制美联储。他的顾问提出了影响货币政策的想法，包括任命一位顺从的主席以及让国会监督利率。特朗普喜欢低利率；如果再加上不断增长的赤字，通货膨胀就会飙升。

Even if the Fed kept its independence, it could become impotent if Congress allowed debt to rise without limit. When the government’s response to rising interest rates is to borrow still more to service its debts, then tight money can stoke inflation rather than containing it—a feedback loop with which Latin America is all too familiar and which mavericks say is already under way in America. Their doomsaying is premature, but higher rates can feed into the budget very quickly. After accounting for the Fed’s balance-sheet, the median dollar of debt is on a fixed interest rate only until June 2025.

即使美联储保持独立性，如果国会允许债务无限制增长，它也可能变得无能为力。当政府对利率上升的反应是借更多的钱来偿还债务时，紧缩的货币政策只会加剧而不是遏制通货膨胀——拉丁美洲人再熟悉不过这种反馈循环，而特立独行者称这种情况已经在美国出现了。 。他们的末日论还为时过早，但更高的利率可以很快纳入预算。考虑到美联储的资产负债表后，美元债务的中位数只能在 2025 年 6 月之前采用固定利率。

A less stable America would cause pain at home because of higher interest rates, more uncertainty and an arbitrary redistribution from creditors to debtors. But the costs would also be felt globally. The dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Through it America provides a unique service: a supply of plentiful assets backed by a vast economy, the rule of law, deep capital markets and an open capital account. No other asset can perform this role today. Even if the dollar attracted a risk premium to compensate for the danger of inflation, the world would probably have to keep using it.

由于利率上升、不确定性增加以及债权人向债务人的任意重新分配，不稳定的美国将给国内带来痛苦。但全球也会感受到成本。美元是世界储备货币。通过它，美国提供了独特的服务：以庞大的经济、法治、深厚的资本市场和开放的资本账户为后盾的充足资产供应。目前没有其他资产可以发挥这一作用。即使美元吸引了风险溢价来弥补通货膨胀的危险，世界也可能不得不继续使用它。

A world whose reserve currency was being debased, however, would be a poorer one. Capital would be more expensive everywhere; the global financial system would be less efficient; and investors would be on a constant search for a viable alternative to the greenback, with the threat of a chaotic transition if one ever emerged. America’s fiscal mess is home-made. But make no mistake: it is the whole world’s problem. ■

然而，一个储备货币贬值的世界将是一个更贫穷的世界。任何地方的资本都会更加昂贵；全球金融体系的效率将会降低；投资者将不断寻找美元的可行替代品，一旦出现，就会面临混乱过渡的威胁。美国的财政混乱是自己造成的。但请不要误会：这是整个世界的问题。