经济学人：
If college presidents were hoping Donald Trump would tire of lambasting America’s universities, recent tirades against international students have left them freshly agog. In May the administration said it would no longer let Harvard enroll foreigners, apparently as a punishment for upsetting it (a judge has put that order on hold). Of wider impact is the government’s decision to pause scheduling new visa interviews for foreign students, no matter where they aim to study. Beyond the damage this is doing to America’s reputation, and its prowess in research, the tumult has bean-counters across the country’s higher-education system wringing their hands.
如果大学校长们希望唐纳德·特朗普能不再抨击美国大学 ，那么最近针对国际学生的猛烈抨击无疑让他们更加焦躁不安。今年 5 月，哈佛大学宣布将不再招收外国学生，这显然是对哈佛大学惹怒哈佛的惩罚（一名法官已暂停执行该命令）。影响更为深远的是，政府决定暂停为外国学生安排新的签证面试，无论他们计划前往何处学习。除了损害美国的声誉和科研实力之外，这场骚乱还让全美高等教育体系的专家们感到焦虑不安。
Many American colleges and universities were facing financial problems long before Mr Trump’s return to the White House. Americans have soured on higher education, after years in which participation grew fast. The share of high-school graduates going straight to college fell from around 70% in 2016 to 62% in 2022. In December Moody’s, a rating agency, said a third of private universities and a fifth of public ones were operating in the red.
早在特朗普重返白宫之前，许多美国高校就面临财务困境。在经历了数年快速增长之后，美国人对高等教育的热情已然消退。高中毕业生直接升入大学的比例从2016年的约70%下降到2022年的62%。评级机构穆迪去年12月表示，三分之一的私立大学和五分之一的公立大学陷入亏损。
Looming demographic change will bring more trouble. The total number of high-school graduates in America may fall by around 6% by 2030 and 13% by 2041, according to one estimate. The impact will vary widely by region: in some north-eastern and mid-western states (which for historical reasons have a surfeit of universities) the decline could be as high as a third.
迫在眉睫的人口结构变化将带来更多麻烦。据估计，到2030年，美国高中毕业生总数可能下降约6%，到2041年将下降13%。其影响因地区而异：在一些东北部和中西部州（由于历史原因，这些州的大学数量过剩），降幅可能高达三分之一。
Foreign students are not an antidote, but they are helping offset some pain. The million or so foreigners studying in America is roughly double the number in 2000. They pay far higher fees than locals for undergraduate courses—in some public universities as much as three times the rate, says William Brustein, who has led international strategy at several of them. Over half the foreigners are postgraduates; these courses tend to bring outsize profits.
外国学生并非良药，但他们确实有助于抵消一些痛苦。目前在美国学习的外国学生约有百万，大约是 2000 年的两倍。他们支付的本科课程费用远高于本地学生——在一些公立大学，学费甚至高达本地学生的三倍，曾在多所公立大学领导国际战略的威廉·布鲁斯坦(William Brustein)说道。超过一半的外国学生是研究生；这些课程往往会带来巨额利润。
Though America has more foreign students than any other country, it would seem to have room for more: they make up only about 6% of those in higher education, compared with over 25% in each of its main competitors—Britain, Australia and Canada. For now, alas, growth is the last thing anyone expects. The risk is both that the number of foreigners who turn up this autumn will fall sharply, and of a longer-lasting depression caused by future applicants turning to more welcoming countries.
尽管美国的外国学生数量超过任何其他国家，但它似乎还有容纳更多学生的空间：美国高等教育的外国学生仅占总学生人数的6%左右，而其主要竞争对手——英国、澳大利亚和加拿大——的这一比例均超过25%。可惜的是，目前美国高等教育的增长前景不容乐观。风险在于，今年秋季入学的外国学生数量将大幅下降，以及未来申请者转向更友好国家而导致的更持久的低迷。
The big question is who might suffer the most if there is a bust. Ultra-elite institutions may look exposed: around 28% of Harvard’s students and a whopping 40% at Columbia come from abroad. But these institutions have many ways to balance the books: last year tuition fees (both domestic and foreign) and payments for room and board made up only about 20% of Harvard’s total income, compared with over 80% at the least prestigious private universities. Demand for spots at the ritziest universities is rarely affected by a slowdown and their home-grown students could pay more.
最大的问题是，如果经济衰退，谁会遭受最大的损失。超级精英院校可能面临风险：哈佛大学约28%的学生和哥伦比亚大学高达40%的学生来自海外。但这些院校有很多方法可以平衡收支：去年，学费（包括国内和国外学生）和食宿费仅占哈佛总收入的20%左右，而声望最低的私立大学则超过80%。最高端大学的入学需求很少受到经济放缓的影响，而这些院校的本土学生可能会支付更高的学费。
The trouble might be greater for second- and third-tier outfits, where foreign students are not quite so numerous but are often more important to the bottom line. For many years public universities ramped up foreign enrollment to make up for declining funding from the state in which they are located. The most prestigious of these institutions were able to boost revenues by attracting high-paying Americans from out of state, whereas the rest had no choice but to pay agents and marketers to bring in overseas students.
对于二三线院校来说，问题可能更大，因为这些院校的外国学生数量虽然不多，但往往对学校的盈利更为重要。多年来，公立大学一直在增加外国学生的入学人数，以弥补所在州拨款的减少。这些院校中最负盛名的院校能够通过吸引来自外州的高薪美国学生来增加收入，而其他院校则别无选择，只能花钱聘请中介和市场营销人员来吸引海外学生。
A deep slowdown in overseas arrivals could damage institutions, even those that have never enrolled a single foreigner. If universities higher up the food chain adapt by packing in more locals, that will make it harder for places down the pecking order to make ends meet. In Britain, changes to visa rules have recently brought sharp falls in foreign arrivals. Last year about 40% of universities predicted operating deficits.
海外学生数量大幅放缓可能会对院校造成冲击，即使是那些从未招收过任何外国学生的院校。如果处于食物链顶端的大学为了适应环境，招收更多本地学生，那么排名靠后的大学将更加难以维持收支平衡。在英国，签证规则的变化最近导致外国学生数量急剧下降。去年，约有40%的大学预测将出现运营亏损。
This would not be a problem if it were to put shoddy and unpopular institutions out of business. But it is a worry if it leads to regional “cold spots” in which affordable degrees become difficult to find. Or if it benefits complacent incumbents that trade on their reputation rather than their teaching. Mr Trump’s war on the effete Ivy League could have much wider effects than he bargained for.
如果这能让劣质、不受欢迎的院校倒闭，这倒不成问题。但如果这会导致地区性“冷门”，让那些负担得起的学位变得难以获得，或者让那些自满自足、依赖声誉而非教学的在职院校受益，那就令人担忧了。特朗普对衰落的常春藤盟校的战争，其影响可能远超他的预期。
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