乌克兰正在输掉对俄罗斯的战争吗？

经济学人：

Five maps and charts illustrate the current state of fighting

五张地图和图表说明了当前的战斗状况

Feb 21st 2024 2024 年 2 月 21 日

THE UKRAINE war has become almost static. Both sides have dug in; the front lines barely shifted in 2023. As The Economist recently reported, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, is still publicly claiming that Ukraine will recover all the territory the Russians conquered, even if he privately knows that this will not happen soon, if at all. His frustration with the lack of progress prompted him to reshuffle the leadership of the armed forces earlier in February. Our charts and maps below show where things stand two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion.

乌克兰战争几乎陷入停滞。双方都已深陷困境； 2023 年，前线几乎没有变化。正如《经济学人》最近报道的那样，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔 · 泽连斯基仍然公开宣称乌克兰将收复俄罗斯人征服的所有领土，尽管他私下知道这不会很快发生（如果有的话） 。他对缺乏进展感到沮丧，促使他在二月初改组了武装部队的领导层。下面的图表和地图显示了俄罗斯全面入侵两年后的情况。

image: The Economist 图片来源：《经济学家》

Roughly a month into the war, Russia controlled more than 22% of Ukrainian territory (including the land it occupied in 2014). Ukraine, helped by supplies of advanced weapons from the West, hit back with two stunning counter-offensives. By late January 2023 it had liberated more than half of the territory that Russia had seized since February 2022.

战争爆发大约一个月后，俄罗斯控制了超过 22% 的乌克兰领土（包括其 2014 年占领的土地）。乌克兰在西方先进武器供应的帮助下，发动了两次令人震惊的反攻。到 2023 年 1 月下旬，它已经解放了俄罗斯自 2022 年 2 月以来占领的一半以上的领土。

But progress on the territorial front has since stalled. A counter-offensive last summer did not amount to much. In fact, our analysis shows that Russia has gained ground in the past 12 months, albeit a tiny amount. Including both gains and losses, Russia has increased its holdings of Ukrainian territory by 0.2 percentage points (see chart 1).

但领土方面的进展此后陷入停滞。去年夏天的反攻并没有多大意义。事实上，我们的分析表明，俄罗斯在过去 12 个月中取得了进展，尽管幅度很小。包括得失在内，俄罗斯对乌克兰领土的持有量增加了 0.2 个百分点（见图 1）。

The stalemate has caused consternation among Ukraine’s allies. Data published on February 16th by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think-tank, show that total aid allocated for near-term delivery from Europe is outpacing that sent by America, though it lags behind in sending military equipment (see charts 2 and 3). Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign-policy chief, admitted that the bloc would only deliver around half of the 1m artillery shells it had promised to send to Ukraine by March. Russia is now producing more shells than Western countries are. It is also getting ammunition from North Korea.

僵局令乌克兰盟友感到震惊。德国智库基尔世界经济研究所 2 月 16 日公布的数据显示，欧洲近期提供的援助总额已超过美国，但在提供军事装备方面落后于美国（见图表） 2 和 3)。欧盟外交政策负责人何塞普 · 博雷尔 (Josep Borrell) 承认，欧盟只会在 3 月份之前交付其承诺向乌克兰运送的 100 万枚炮弹的一半左右。俄罗斯现在生产的炮弹比西方国家还多。它还从朝鲜获得弹药。

Russia’s growing advantage in artillery fire is taking a toll on Ukraine’s forces. The Economist’s war tracker showed heavy fighting along the eastern and southern fronts in the 30 days to February 20th (see map 1). Russia captured Avdiivka, a small town in the eastern region of Donetsk, on February 17th, marking Ukraine’s worst defeat since the fall of Bakhmut last May. A major in Ukraine’s armed forces told The Economist that if they had had more equipment and ammunition, the battle for Avdiivka would have ended “entirely differently”. Towns in eastern parts of the country now fear they will be Russia’s next target.

俄罗斯在炮火方面日益增长的优势正在对乌克兰军队造成损害。 《经济学人》的战争追踪显示，截至 2 月 20 日的 30 天内，东部和南部战线发生了激烈的战斗（见地图 1）。 2 月 17 日，俄罗斯占领了顿涅茨克东部地区的小镇阿夫季夫卡，这是乌克兰自去年 5 月攻陷巴克穆特以来最惨重的失败。乌克兰武装部队的一名少校告诉《经济学人》，如果他们拥有更多的装备和弹药，阿夫季夫卡之战的结局将会 “完全不同”。该国东部地区的城镇现在担心它们将成为俄罗斯的下一个目标。

image: The Economist 图片来源：《经济学家》

Ukraine is having more success at sea. Even without much of a conventional navy, Ukraine is inflicting serious damage on Russia in the Black Sea. Missile and drone attacks have bombarded Russia’s fleet: 25 surface ships and one submarine have been destroyed; 15 are under repair. On February 14th Ukrainian officials said they sank another valuable ship, a claim supported by video footage. Russia’s remaining vessels have been forced to operate at much greater distances from Ukraine’s coast.

乌克兰在海上取得了更大的成功。即使没有大量常规海军，乌克兰也在黑海对俄罗斯造成严重损害。导弹和​​无人机袭击轰炸了俄罗斯舰队：25 艘水面舰艇和一艘潜艇被摧毁； 15 座正在维修中。 2 月 14 日，乌克兰官员表示，他们击沉了另一艘有价值的船只，这一说法有视频支持。俄罗斯剩余的船只被迫在距离乌克兰海岸更远的地方作业。

This has established a strategic corridor for grain and other exports, despite Russia’s withdrawal from a UN agreement (see map 2). That is helping the economy in important ways: total exports of grain, oilseeds and vegetable oils in January were higher than they were at the start of 2019 and 2020. Such successes have shown that Ukraine is still in the fight, and that its economy can develop even in wartime. But its allies will need to step up if they want Ukraine to hold Russia back on land for another year.

尽管俄罗斯退出了联合国协议，但这仍然为粮食和其他出口建立了战略走廊（见地图 2）。这对经济有重要帮助：1 月份谷物、油籽和植物油出口总额高于 2019 年初和 2020 年年初。这些成功表明乌克兰仍在战斗中，其经济可以即使在战时也能发展。但如果其盟友希望乌克兰再在陆地上阻止俄罗斯一年，他们就需要站出来。■