经济学人：
It has been a terrible year to be bullish on China. The CSI 300 index of Chinese stocks has dropped by 13% so far in 2023, to below the level reached during the last of the country’s severe covid-19 lockdowns. Difficulties in the property market are prompting corporate defaults. The lacklustre outlook for economic growth, combined with the need to manage capricious autocratic leadership at home and uncertain relations with big trading partners, makes for a miserable financial climate.
对于看好中国来说，今年是糟糕的一年。 2023 年迄今为止，中国股市沪深 300 指数已下跌 13%，低于该国上次严重的 covid-19 封锁期间达到的水平。房地产市场的困难正在促使企业违约。经济增长前景黯淡，加上需要管理国内反复无常的独裁领导层以及与大型贸易伙伴的不确定关系，导致金融环境悲惨。
This is also a recipe for enormous capital outflows. Foreign investors, who once had boundless enthusiasm for China, are rushing for the exits. So are numerous wealthy Chinese individuals. According to the Institute of International Finance, a think-tank, there have been cross-border outflows from the country’s stocks and bonds for five consecutive quarters, the longest streak on record. Firms are getting itchy feet, too. In the third quarter of this year the net flow of foreign direct investment in China turned negative for the first time since the data began to be collected a quarter of a century ago. In part, this reflects investment by domestic manufacturers in overseas operations, which can lower labour costs and help skirt American tariffs. The size of the overall outflows is up for debate, but some believe up to $500bn-worth is disguised in China’s murky balance-of-payments data.
这也是大量资本外流的一个原因。曾经对中国抱有无限热情的外国投资者正在争先恐后地退出。许多中国富人也是如此。据智库国际金融研究所称，该国股票和债券已连续五个季度出现跨境资金外流，这是有记录以来最长的记录。企业也感到手痒痒。今年第三季度，中国的外商直接投资净流量自 25 年前开始收集数据以来首次出现负值。在某种程度上，这反映了国内制造商对海外业务的投资，这可以降低劳动力成本并有助于规避美国关税。整体资金外流的规模存在争议，但一些人认为，中国模糊的国际收支数据掩盖了高达 5000 亿美元的资金流出。
The last surge of capital out of China came in 2015-16. It was set off by a currency devaluation, which was itself sparked by a stockmarket collapse. By one estimate, as much as $1trn escaped the country in 2015 alone. Back then, many countries welcomed Chinese capital with open arms. Now they are suspicious. New destinations for Chinese funds—both legitimate and illicit—are therefore being found.
上一次资本流出中国是在 2015-16 年。它是由货币贬值引发的，而货币贬值本身又是由股市崩盘引发的。据估计，仅 2015 年就有多达 1 万亿美元的资金逃离该国。当时，许多国家张开双臂欢迎中国资本。现在他们起了疑心。因此，中国资金——无论是合法的还是非法的——都在寻找新的目的地。
Dodging China’s capital controls is the first task for fretful investors. Some transfers are piecemeal: mainland residents can buy tradable insurance policies in Hong Kong, though they may legally spend only $5,000 at a time. In the first nine months of the year, sales of insurance to mainland visitors hit HK$47bn ($6bn), some 30% more than in the same period in 2019. Other avenues are being closed off. In October China banned domestic brokers from facilitating overseas investment by local residents. For business owners, misinvoicing trade shipments, by overstating the value of goods being transacted, is one way to get money out of the country.
规避中国的资本管制是焦躁的投资者的首要任务。有些转移是零碎的：内地居民可以在香港购买可交易的保单，尽管他们一次只能合法花费 5,000 美元。今年前 9 个月，面向内地游客的保险销售额达到 470 亿港元（合 60 亿美元），比 2019 年同期增长约 30%。其他渠道正在被关闭。十月，中国禁止国内经纪商为当地居民的海外投资提供便利。对于企业主来说，通过夸大交易货物的价值而对贸易货运开错发票，是将资金转移出该国的一种方式。
Many places are less inviting to Chinese investors than during the last era of capital flight. Dozens of American state legislatures have passed bills blocking foreign citizens residing overseas from buying land and property. Chinese buyers spent $13.6bn on American property in the year to March, less than half the amount spent during the same period in 2016-17. In Canada, another once popular market, non-residents are now banned from buying real estate altogether. Golden visas in Europe, which offer residency rights in exchange for investment, are falling out of favour: schemes in Ireland, the Netherlands and Portugal are being tightened or abolished. Although Hong Kong remains a gateway through which Chinese capital can reach the rest of the world, its appeal as a bolthole for rich families aiming to shield their assets from the Chinese state has dimmed since the territory’s political crackdown.
许多地方对中国投资者的吸引力不如上一个资本外逃时代。美国数十个州立法机构已通过法案，禁止居住在海外的外国公民购买土地和房产。截至 3 月份的一年里，中国买家在美国房产上花费了 136 亿美元，不到 2016-17 年同期花费的一半。在另一个曾经受欢迎的市场加拿大，非居民现在被完全禁止购买房地产。欧洲以居留权换取投资的黄金签证正在失宠：爱尔兰、荷兰和葡萄牙的计划正在收紧或废除。尽管香港仍然是中国资本进入世界其他地区的门户，但自香港的政治镇压以来，它作为旨在保护其资产免受中国政府侵害的富裕家庭避难所的吸引力已经减弱。
It is in this context that Singapore has taken on an increasingly important role. Its success in attracting Chinese cash owes a lot to its relative proximity, low taxes and large Mandarin-speaking population. Direct investment from Hong Kong and the Chinese mainland has risen by 59% since 2021, reaching 19.3bn Singapore dollars ($14.4bn) last year. Suspicious gaps in the trade data between the two countries suggest greater unrecorded capital flight, too, note analysts at Goldman Sachs, a bank.
正是在这种背景下，新加坡扮演着越来越重要的角色。它之所以能成功吸引中国资金，很大程度上要归功于其相对邻近、低税率和大量讲普通话的人口。自 2021 年以来，来自香港和中国内地的直接投资增长了 59%，去年达到 193 亿新加坡元（144 亿美元）。高盛银行的分析师指出，两国之间贸易数据的可疑差距也表明存在更多未记录的资本外逃。
The number of family offices in Singapore rose from 400 in 2020 to 1,100 by the end of 2022, a trend driven by Chinese demand. There is little transparency about what assets ultra-rich investors hold through such vehicles, but Singapore’s modest capital markets suggest that most money will eventually be invested abroad. Nevertheless, Chinese inflows have buoyed Singapore’s banks, helping to lift profits at institutions like DBS and Overseas Chinese Banking Corporation. Other neutral locations are also benefiting from Chinese cash. Although golden visas are in decline elsewhere, issuance in Dubai rose by 52% in the first six months of 2023, compared with the same period in 2022, with lots of recipients thought to be Chinese.
新加坡家族办公室的数量从 2020 年的 400 家增加到 2022 年底的 1,100 家，这一趋势是由中国需求推动的。超级富有的投资者通过此类工具持有哪些资产几乎不透明，但新加坡温和的资本市场表明，大部分资金最终将投资于海外。尽管如此，中国资金的流入提振了新加坡的银行，帮助提高了星展银行和华侨银行等机构的利润。其他中立地点也受益于中国资金。尽管其他地方的黄金签证数量在下降，但与 2022 年同期相比，迪拜的黄金签证发放量在 2023 年前 6 个月增加了 52%，其中许多接收者被认为是中国人。
Neutral countries are not the only beneficiaries. Inquiries about Japanese properties from clients in China and Hong Kong have roughly tripled in the past year, says Glass Wu of Japan Hana, an estate agency. The trend has been accelerated by a weak Japanese yen, which has fallen by a fifth in the past three years against the Chinese yuan. Around 70% of the buyers make viewings via video call, says Ms Wu, and buy without first visiting the property. Australia has also seen a surge in overseas demand for property, mostly from potential owner-occupiers, rather than investors as in previous waves, says Peter Li of Plus Agency, a local realtor. Data from Juwai IQI, a property firm, seem to confirm the trend. Since 2020 the median price of homes around the world receiving inquiries from Chinese buyers has risen from $296,000 to $728,000. Rather than buying smaller properties to let, buyers are opting for spacious ones in which they will actually live.
中立国家并不是唯一的受益者。房地产经纪公司日本花亚公司的 Glass Wu 表示，去年中国和香港客户对日本房产的询问大约增加了两倍。日元疲软加速了这一趋势，过去三年日元兑人民币汇率下跌了五分之一。吴女士表示，大约 70% 的买家通过视频通话进行看房，并在没有先参观房产的情况下购买。当地房地产经纪人 Plus Agency 的彼得 · 李 (Peter Li) 表示，澳大利亚海外房产需求也出现激增，主要来自潜在的自住业主，而不是像前几波浪潮中那样来自投资者。房地产公司居外爱奇的数据似乎证实了这一趋势。自 2020 年以来，中国买家询价的全球房屋中位价已从 296,000 美元上涨至 728,000 美元。买家不会购买较小的房产来出租，而是选择宽敞的房产来实际居住。
Chinese capital can cause problems. It has put pressure on Singapore’s housing market, which is dominated by state provision and contains fewer than half a million private units. In April the state introduced an eye-watering 60% tax on all property purchases by foreigners to try to cool things down. The city’s financial secrecy may also invite the wrong kinds of activity. In August police raids resulted in the seizure of assets including cars, jewellery and luxury property, together worth around $2bn, and the arrests of ten foreigners. The group had all been born in China, but most had acquired other citizenships through international investment schemes. In October the Singaporean government noted that at least one of the accused may have had links to a family office. Other countries in the region, such as Cambodia and Thailand, are wary of hosting elite Chinese citizens who may bring politics with them.
中国资本可能会引发问题。这给新加坡的房地产市场带来了压力，该市场由国家供应主导，私人住房数量不足 50 万套。 4 月份，国家对外国人购买的所有房产征收高达 60% 的税，试图让事态降温。该市的财务保密也可能会引发错误的活动。 8 月份，警方突击搜查了包括汽车、珠宝和奢侈品在内的资产，总价值约 20 亿美元，并逮捕了 10 名外国人。这群人都出生在中国，但大多数人通过国际投资计划获得了其他公民身份。十月，新加坡政府指出，至少一名被告可能与家族办公室有联系。该地区的其他国家，例如柬埔寨和泰国，对接待可能带来政治影响的中国精英公民持谨慎态度。
Although outflows from China are not yet on the vast scale of those seen during the panic of 2015-16, they might prove more enduring. Back then, a government-engineered credit boom in the property industry helped revive the economy’s animal spirits. This time around, the Chinese government wants to allow the industry to cool. Without a sudden, unexpected recovery in the fortunes of the Chinese economy, the stream of capital looking for an exit is unlikely to slow. Investors and companies will continue to seek a wide variety of foreign assets—the ones, at least, they are still allowed to buy—prompting joy and headaches wherever they land. ■
尽管中国的资金外流尚未达到 2015-16 年恐慌期间的规模，但事实可能会更持久。当时，政府推动的房地产行业信贷繁荣帮助重振了经济的动物精神。这一次，中国政府希望让该行业降温。如果中国经济的命运没有突然、意外的复苏，寻求退出的资本流就不可能放缓。投资者和公司将继续寻求各种各样的外国资产——至少是他们仍然可以购买的资产——无论他们在哪里，都会带来欢乐和头痛。 ■
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