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美国政治如何影响投资

作者： creek
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经济学人： Beware: taking a stand can be expensive 当心：表明立场可能会付出高昂的代价 The hedge fund’s branding is a clue. 1789 Capital was set up last year and named for the year Congress proposed America’s bill of rights. It offers investors the chance to put money into what it says are three key themes: a parallel conservative economy catering to consumers who want to avoid being bombarded with liberal ideas; the shift away from free trade; and firms that have been penalised by the environment, social and governance (ESG) investment trend. Its founder, Omeed Malik, a former banker, has hosted fundraisers for Robert Kennedy junior, an anti-vaccination, long-shot presidential candidate. 对冲基金的品牌是一个线索。 1789 Capital 成立于去年，以国会提出美国权利法案的年份命名。它为投资者提供了将资金投入其所说的三个关键主题的机会：平行的保守经济，迎合那些希望避免受到自由主义思想轰炸的消费者；远离自由贸易；以及因环境、社会和治理（ESG）投资趋势而受到惩罚的公司。其创始人、前银行家奥米德·马利克 (Omeed Malik) 为反对疫苗接种、有望成为总统候选人的小罗伯特·肯尼迪 (Robert Kennedy Junior) 举办了筹款活动。 1789 Capital is part of an increasingly important trend: American politics is infecting i
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为什么美元走强是危险的

作者： creek
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经济学人： The dollar is looking increasingly formidable. As American growth has stayed strong and investors have scaled back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, money has flooded into the country’s markets—and the greenback has shot up. It has risen by 4% this year, measured against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, and the fundamentals point to further appreciation. With a presidential election looming, and both Democrats and Republicans determined to promote American manufacturing, the world is on the verge of a difficult new period of strong-dollar geopolitics. 美元看起来越来越强大。随着美国经济增长保持强劲，投资者缩减了对美联储将降息的押注，资金涌入美国市场，美元飙升。以贸易加权的一篮子货币衡量，它今年上涨了 4%，基本面表明进一步升值。随着总统大选的临近，民主党人和共和党人都决心促进美国制造业的发展，世界正处于强势美元地缘政治的艰难新时期的边缘。 This situation is made still more difficult by the fact that the currency’s strength reflects weakness elsewhere. By the end of 2023, America’s economy was 8% larger than at the end of 2019. Those of Britain, France, Germany and Japan each grew by less than 2% d
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全球各国生活水平排行榜：哪些国家的生活水平最好，哪些国家的生活水平最差？中国第75名

作者： creek
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经济学人： 2020 年的混乱程度是几十年来从未见过的。欧洲爆发了一场疫情，随后又爆发了一场全面战争；两者都导致食品和燃料价格飙升。极端天气事件表明，气候变化开始产生影响。“前所未有的时代”一词很快就听起来陈旧而空洞。 这一切都对全球生活水平造成了影响。衡量这一问题的指标之一，即联合国的人类发展指数 ( hdi )，自 1990 年推出以来，在 2020 年首次出现下降。2021 年，该指数再次下降。人类发展指数是继gdp之后，最广泛使用的衡量国家发展水平的指标之一。它衡量社会成果方面的进步，包括出生时的预期寿命、预期和平均受教育年限以及人均国民总收入。3 月 13 日发布的最新数据显示，全球人类发展指数正在再次上升，但进展缓慢且不均衡。下表显示了联合国跟踪的 194 个国家的比较情况。 瑞士连续第二年位居榜首。高收入和长寿命提高了其总体得分。西欧其他国家也获得了最高分。亚洲部分地区也表现不俗，香港和新加坡进入前十。其他地区的情况则更为黯淡：秘鲁、哥伦比亚、利比亚和黎巴嫩等国自 2019 年以来进步甚微。乌克兰和俄罗斯的生活水平也有所下降：这两个国家在 2021 年至 2022 年间分别下降了 23 位和 4 位。饱受战争蹂躏的也门、贫穷且负债累累的伯利兹，以及面临被海平面上升吞没风险的岛国密克罗尼西亚，都在 2010 年达到顶峰，此后每年都在下降。 该指数很有用，但不完整。例如，它没有考虑到经济不平等，或种族和性别之间的差异。（联合国现在制定了包括其中一些指标的单独指数。） 但它确实为政策制定者和非政府组织提供了一个一致的衡量标准。其对 2023 年的区域预测显示，生活水平将进一步提高；只有阿拉伯世界不会完全恢复到 2019 年的水平。然而，自疫情爆发以来，长期趋势似乎遭受了永久性的挫折（见图 1）。2022 年的值和 2023 年的预测表明，发展可能会停留在低于 2019 年前趋势的道路上，而这一趋势自 1999 年以来一直保持强劲。 这一挫折将对世界上最贫穷的国家造成最严重的影响。在由富裕国家组成的经合组织中，人类发展指数值已恢复到或超过了疫情前的水平。但世界上不到一半的最不发达国家的情况确实如此。20 年来，人类发展指数最高和最低的国家之间的差距一直在缩小（2007-09 年金融危机期间的短暂时期除外）。但自 2020 年以来，这一差距有所扩大。 但也有理由
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美国今年的利率不太可能下降

作者： creek
经济学人： For most of the year everyone from stockpickers and homebuyers to President Joe Biden has banked on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates soon. Over the past two weeks those hopes have been dashed. Annual consumer price inflation in March, at 3.5%, was higher than expected for the third month in a row; retail sales grew by a boomy 0.7% on the previous month. On April 16th Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, warned that the battle against inflation was taking “longer than expected”. Investors had begun 2024 pricing in more than 1.5 percentage points of interest-rate cuts over the course of the year. Today they expect rates to fall by only 0.5 points. 在今年的大部分时间里，从选股者和购房者到总统乔 · 拜登，每个人都寄希望于美联储很快降息。在过去的两周里，这些希望破灭了。3 月份消费者价格年通胀率为 3.5%，连续第三个月高于预期; 零售额环比增长 0.7%。4 月 16 日，美联储主席杰罗姆 · 鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）警告称，抗击通胀的斗争 “比预期的要长”。投资者已开始定价 2024 年全年降息超过 1.5 个百分点。今天，他们预计利率将仅下降 0.5 个百分点。 Mr Powell has conducted a pivot upon a pivot. The euphoric expectations for rate cuts took on a life of their ow
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人工智能正在接管药物开发

作者： creek
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经济学人： The most striking evidence that artificial intelligence can provide profound scientific breakthroughs came with the unveiling of a program called AlphaFold by Google DeepMind. In 2016 researchers at the company had scored a big success with AlphaGo, an AI system which, having essentially taught itself the rules of Go, went on to beat the most highly rated human players of the game, sometimes by using tactics no one had ever foreseen. This emboldened the company to build a system that would work out a far more complex set of rules: those through which the sequence of amino acids which defines a particular protein leads to the shape that sequence folds into when that protein is actually made. AlphaFold found those rules and applied them with astonishing success. 人工智能可以提供深刻的科学突破的最引人注目的证据来自谷歌 DeepMind 推出的一个名为 AlphaFold 的程序。2016 年，该公司的研究人员在 AlphaGo 上取得了巨大的成功，AlphaGo 是一个人工智能系统，它基本上自学了围棋规则，继续击败了游戏中评价最高的人类玩家，有时使用没有人预见到的策略。这鼓励了该公司建立一个系统，该系统将制定一套更复杂的规则：通过这些规则，定义特定蛋白质的氨基酸序列导致该序列在实际制造蛋白质时折叠成
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中国央行和 Costco 购物者的共同点

作者： creek
经济学人： Gold has always held an allure. The earliest civilisations used it for jewellery; the first forms of money were forged from it. For centuries kings clamoured to get their hands on the stuff. Charlemagne conquered much of Europe after plundering vast amounts of gold from the Avars. When King Ferdinand of Spain sent explorers to the new world in 1511, he told them to “get gold, humanely if you can, but all hazards, get gold.” Ordinary men also clamoured for it after James Marshall, a labourer, found a flake of gold while constructing a saw mill in Sacramento, California, in 1848. 黄金一直具有诱惑力。最早的文明将其用于珠宝; 第一种形式的货币是从中锻造出来的。几个世纪以来，国王们都吵着要得到这些东西。查理曼大帝在从阿瓦尔人那里掠夺了大量黄金后征服了欧洲大部分地区。1511 年，当西班牙国王斐迪南派遣探险家前往新大陆时，他告诉他们 “如果可以的话，人道地获得黄金，但所有危险，都要获得黄金。1848 年，工人詹姆斯 · 马歇尔 （James Marshall） 在加利福尼亚州萨克拉门托建造锯木厂时发现了一片金片后，普通人也大声疾呼。 People are once again spending big on the precious metal. On April 9th its spot price hit a record of $2,364 an ounce, having risen by 15% since the start of March. That gold is su
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揭开哈瓦那综合症：新证据将 GRU 的暗杀部队 29155 与对美国官员及其家人的神秘袭击联系起来

作者： creek
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来源：https://theins.press/en/politics/270425 Tbilisi 第比利斯 He was tall, certainly taller than Joy’s neighbors and the Georgians she’d come to know in eight months of living in Dighomi, an upscale residential community in Tbilisi. He was young and thin and blonde and well-dressed — as if headed to the theater, or perhaps a wedding. 他身材高大，当然比乔伊的邻居和她在第比利斯高档住宅区迪戈米（Dighomi）生活八个月时认识的格鲁吉亚人还要高。他年轻、瘦弱、金发碧眼、衣着考究——仿佛要去剧院，或者去参加婚礼。 Minutes earlier on October 7, 2021, Joy, an American nurse and the wife of a U.S. Embassy official, had been taking her laundry out of the dryer when she was completely consumed by an acute ringing sound that reminded her of what someone in the movies experiences after a bomb has gone off. “It just pierced my ears, came in my left side, felt like it came through the window, into my left ear,” Joy remembers. “I immediately felt fullness in my head, and just a piercing headache.” She ran out of the laundry room on the second floor of her house and into the bathroom adjoining
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